By Steve Kallas (posted by Rick Morris)
NOTE: Originally Published at
WestchesterCountyPost.com
Judge’s
Baserunning Mistake (and John Smoltz’s Errant Analysis);
Lemahieu’s
Incredible Homer
Chapman
Gives Up the Game Winner
Give the Houston Astros credit. They beat the Yankees, 6-4, and now move on
to the 2019 World Series. While there is
so much to digest in Game 6 and in the entire series, we’ll keep the analysis
to one play and two at-bats.
Aaron
Judge’s Baserunning Mistake
A five-tool player, Aaron Judge, when
healthy, is already a superstar in major league baseball. But baserunning can be very nuanced -- not
always black-and-white -- and sometimes it takes quick thinking to understand
what to do on the bases.
By now you’ve probably seen the great
catch and throw that Michael Brantley made with one out in the top of the
seventh inning. Judge had singled and
Gleyber Torres had made the first out.
Now, Aaron Hicks, on a 3-2 pitch (Judge not running), hits a bloop to
short left field.
Alex Bregman going out, Brantley coming
in, it certainly looked like there was a good chance that the ball was going to
drop. At the last instant, Brantley dove to make an incredible catch in short
left field.
Where was Aaron Judge?
Well, Judge took off with the crack of
the bat and actually had his foot on second base when Brantley caught the
ball. Brantley got up and, from short
left field, threw a one-hop strike to first base. Judge was out by about eight feet.
Here’s what John Smoltz said after the
play: “Judge was in such an impossible no-man’s land. When Brantley dove, Judge touched the base
and tried to get back. Brantley made a
good one-hop throw.” While Smoltz is a
pretty good analyst, it’s hard for a pitcher to comment on subtle base running
plays, which is what this play was (given the circumstances).
Of course, the real question is why was
Judge touching second base? Where,
exactly, was he going? While some called
it an “aggressive” play by Judge, to what end was it aggressive? Judge could not have made it to third on that
play. It was a bloop. It wasn’t a line drive that was going to roll
past Brantley.
The proper way to run the bases in that
situation is to give yourself enough room to run to second if the ball drops in
for a bloop single. But also to give
yourself enough time to get back to first if somebody (Brantley or Bregman)
makes the catch.
In other words, Judge should be about 15
feet from second when the ball is coming down.
If it drops, he runs to second (no chance to get to third). If a great catch is made, he sprints back to
first. Since he was out by about eight
feet, he would have made it back if he didn’t run all the way to second
base. Again, nothing was to be gained
(an additional base could not be taken) by being “aggressive.”
Great baserunning, like bunting, is a
lost art in major league baseball. A
difficult play to make in this situation?
Absolutely. But nothing was
gained or could have been gained by being on second when the ball was
caught. Nuanced? Absolutely.
But instead of a base runner on first and two outs, the inning was over.
To Judge’s credit, he made an excellent
defensive play to save a run in the very next inning. But this double play, a huge momentum-builder
for the Astros, could have been limited to one out.
DJ
Lemahieu’s Incredible Home Run
You’ve probably seen this play a dozen
times or so. Top 9, Astros up 4-2,
Roberto Osuna in to close. Man on first,
one out, DJ LeMahieu at the plate. If
you’re into baseball, we’re going to go through the entire 10-pitch at-bat.
·
Pitch 1, fastball away
(95 mph), count is 1-0.
·
Pitch 2, high out of
the strike zone (98) but LeMahieu chases, 1-1.
·
Pitch 3, fastball in
the strike zone (down and in) (98), fouled off, 1-2.
·
Pitch 4, breaking ball
(90 mph), off the plate outside, great take by LeMahieu, count is 2-2.
·
Pitch 5, fastball in
the lower part of the strike zone (97), fouled weakly down the third base line,
still 2-2.
·
Pitch 6, fastball (98),
in the strike zone but towards the outside, fouled hard to right field, still
2-2.
·
Pitch 7, Osuna goes
change-up (85 mph), up and in, a ball, but LeMahieu goes after it and fouls it
off, count is still 2-2.
·
Pitch 8, fastball (99),
in the middle of the strike zone height-wise but on the outside corner, fouled
off, count is still 2-2.
·
Pitch 9, catcher Martin
Maldonado wants it up high, half stands up and gives a target arguably above
the top of the strike zone, fastball (98), up and in a little, taken by LeMahieu,
count full at 3-2.
·
Pitch 10, fastball (94
mph), in the strike zone, maybe a little down and a little in (Maldonado wanted
it more in), DJ LeMahieu homers to right to tie up the game at 4 in the ninth
inning.
Here’s Hall of Fame pitcher John
Smoltz’s analysis after pitch 9 (the high fastball that missed up and in,
bringing the count to 3-2): “Gotta be real confident if you’re going to go up
there that you could make a 3-2 pitch cause the chance of success for getting a
strike at the top part of the zone on LeMahieu is not great.” Smoltz continued, “You have to have in your
mind that you know you’re going to throw the 3-2 pitch if you miss with the
2-2.”
Next pitch, home run.
After the home run, Smoltz, still on the
2-2 pitch up and in, said, “Didn’t love the 2-2 pitch; had to come in there
with the 3-2 pitch.” A little later, he
said, “Telling you, 2-2 pitch.”
John Smoltz seemed to make the entire
at-bat about pitch 9.
But Wait a Minute!
The reality is that pitch 9, with a
catcher who clearly wanted it up high, was the FIFTH 2-2 pitch. Osuna went fastballs (97 and 98 mph) on
pitches 5 and 6 (both fouled off), went change-up (85 mph) on pitch 7 (fouled
off) and went fastball (99 mph) on the outside corner of the strike zone on
pitch 8.
Maldonado or Osuna or manager AJ Hinch
must have remembered that, on pitch 2, DJ LeMahieu swung at a pitch about chin
high. The real question is, were they
trying to throw a strike or to get LeMahieu to chase again? The difference in pitch 2 and pitch 9 was
that pitch 9 was high and in a little; pitch 2 was high but right down the
middle. Most probably, they wanted a
strike at the top of the zone, as Maldonado had tried to frame it as such.
But LeMahieu laid off of it, the count
went to 3-2 and, yes, DJ LeMahieu hit one of the greatest post-season clutch
home runs in history.
Until the Yankees lost.
LeMahieu’s incredible at-bat/home run
reminds this writer a little bit of the incredible sideline catch that Julio
Jones made against the Patriots late in Super Bowl 51. If Atlanta had taken three knees and let Matt
Bryant kick a 40-41 yard field goal, they most probably would have won that
Super Bowl.
But, now, it’s pretty much totally
forgotten. As great as it was, that DJ
LeMahieu homer will also, eventually, fade from memory. But an incredible at-bat, nonetheless.
Aroldis
Chapman Gives Up the Pennant-Losing Home Run
Star closer Aroldis Chapman came into a
tie game in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 6. Right away, to catcher Martin Maldonado, he
threw four fastballs in the strike zone (97, 98, 99 and 101 mph, respectively),
so he certainly seemed to have control of his fastball.
He struck out Maldonado on a nasty
slider down below the zone. He then
threw three of his first four pitches to lefty Josh Reddick in the 86-87 mph range
(all breaking balls). He then got
Reddick to pop up on a 100 mph fastball.
Then lead-off man George Springer came
to the plate. The first three pitches
were all breaking balls between 86 and 88 mph.
With two of the three low and the count 2-1, Chapman returned to his
blazing fastball. But he missed wildly
on the 2-1 pitch, as catcher Gary Sanchez couldn’t even catch the ball (it
missed by so much) at 98 mph. The next
pitch, ball 4, was 97 and was also way up high.
Here Comes Altuve
So when Jose Altuve comes to the plate,
he knows that Chapman is using his nasty breaking ball and throwing it for
strikes or down below the zone. He also
knows that the last two fastballs to Springer missed very badly.
And here’s what happens:
The first pitch fastball to Altuve is up
and away at 99 mph, not even close. The
second pitch fastball to Altuve is up and away at 97, not even close. (And give
some credit here to John Smoltz, who suggested you might put Altuve on and had
to be careful with him -- Brantley had been pulled for a pinch runner so would
not be up next: Jake Marisnick would be next).
So Altuve knows that Chapman has thrown
four terrible fastballs in a row and has had command of his slider the whole
inning.
Well, the next pitch was Chapman’s worst
slider of the day -- in the strike zone but up and a little away. Altuve crushes it and wins the game and the
pennant for the Houston Astros.
Was Altuve Looking for the Breaking
Ball?
A fascinating question. Altuve was interviewed right after the game
and after lauding Chapman as one of the greatest closers he’s ever faced, he
said the following: “Chapman throws 100.
I wanted to be on time for the fastball but looking for something I can
handle and it just happened.”
It says here that Altuve was saying he
was looking for the slider but didn’t want to come out and say it.
After all, he may be facing Chapman in
the same spot next year.
© Copyright 2019 By Steve Kallas. All
Rights Reserved.
