Sunday, December 17, 2017

Lounge on YouTube: Mini-Episode #929 – 2017 Fantasy Football Week 15 preview


By Rick Morris

Here is Mini-Episode #929 of The FDH Lounge, another edition of THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER, previewing Week 15 of the 2017 fantasy football season.


       


       


       


       

Lounge on YouTube: Mini-Episode #928 – 2017 NFL Week 15 preview


By Rick Morris


Here is Mini-Episode #928 of The FDH Lounge, previewing 2017 NFL Week 15.


       


       


       


       

Lounge on YouTube: Michael Harmon 2017 NFL stretch run preview


By Rick Morris

FDH Lounge Mini-Episode #927 previews the 2017 NFL stretch run with Michael Harmon of Fox Sports Radio.


       


       


       


       

Lounge on YouTube: Michael Harmon 2017 fantasy football playoff preview


By Rick Morris

THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER previews the 2017 fantasy football playoff season with Michael Harmon of Fox Sports Radio.


       


       


       


       

Friday, December 15, 2017

2017-18 NCAA bowl game picks


By Rick Morris


NOTE: 42-36-2 for the season


New Orleans Bowl

Troy -5 ½ over North Texas


AutoNation Cure Bowl

Western Kentucky -5 over Georgia State


Las Vegas Bowl

Boise State +5 over Oregon


New Mexico Bowl

Marshall +5 ½ over Colorado State


Raycom Camelia Bowl

Arkansas State -3 ½ over Middle Tennessee State
   

Boca Raton Bowl

Florida Atlantic -17 over Akron


DXL Frisco Bowl

Louisiana Tech +5 over SMU


Gasparilla Bowl

Temple -7 over Florida International


Bahamas Bowl

Ohio -7 ½ over UAB


Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Wyoming PK over Central Michigan


Birmingham Bowl

South Florida -2 over Texas Tech


Armed Forces Bowl

Army +6 over San Diego State


Dollar General Bowl

Appalachian State +8 over Toledo


Hawaii Bowl

Fresno State +2 over Houston


Heart of Dallas Bowl

Utah -7 over West Virginia


Quick Lane Bowl

Northern Illinois +4 ½ over Duke


Cactus Bowl

UCLA +1 ½ over Kansas State


Independence Bowl

Southern Mississippi +14 over Florida State


New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Iowa -3 over Boston College


Texas Bowl

Texas +1 ½ over Missouri


Foster Farms Bowl

Purdue +3 ½ over Arizona


Military Bowl

Virginia PK over Navy


Camping World Bowl

Virginia Tech +6 ½ over Oklahoma State


Valero Alamo Bowl

TCU -2 ½ over Stanford


Holiday Bowl

Michigan State +3 over Washington State


Belk Bowl

Texas A&M +3 over Wake Forest


Hyundai Sun Bowl

North Carolina State -6 over Arizona State


Music City Bowl

Kentucky +7 over Northwestern


Arizona Bowl

Utah State -3 over New Mexico State


Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Ohio State -7 over USC


TaxSlayer Bowl

Louisville -5 over Mississippi State


AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Iowa State +3 over Memphis


PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Penn State -1 ½ over Washington


Capital One Orange Bowl

Miami +6 ½ over Wisconsin


Outback Bowl

South Carolina +8 ½ over Michigan


Chick-fil-A-Peach Bowl

Central Florida +9 ½ over Auburn


Citrus Bowl

Notre Dame +2 over LSU


Rose Bowl

Georgia +1 over Oklahoma


Sugar Bowl

Clemson +2 over Alabama

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

2017 NFL Week 15 power rankings


By Rick Morris


NOTE: Rankings from start of season are in parentheses.


TOP TIER

1 New Orleans (21-22-21-21-21-10-6-6-4-3-3-5-5)

2 New England (1-1-1-6-5-4-3-3-2-2-2-2-2)

3 Minnesota (11-11-9-13-10-8-7-7-7-5-4-3-3)

4 Los Angeles Rams (16-19-19-9-11-9-8-8-6-4-5-4-4)

5 Carolina (14-16-16-14-6-10-10-9-8-8-8-8)

6 Pittsburgh (7-6-6-3-9-5-4-4-3-6-6-6-6)

7 Philadelphia (15-17-17-8-6-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1)

8 Atlanta (3-2-2-2-2-3-9-9-13-11-7-7-9)

9 Jacksonville (23-24-23-26-13-14-13-13-11-10-9-12-12)

10 Los Angeles Chargers (20-21-26-27-27-27-16-16-19-19-14-11-11)

11 Seattle (6-7-10-11-8-7-5-5-8-9-10-9-7)

SECOND TIER

12 Tennessee (13-12-8-17-18-17-22-21-16-13-11-10-10)

13 Baltimore (9-9-11-18-15-20-25-15-17-17-13-13-13)

14 Dallas (8-15-15-19-22-22-14-12-10-16-19-19-15)

15 Kansas City (4-3-3-1-1-1-2-2-5-7-12-15-19)

16 Buffalo (26-26-20-10-12-12-12-11-14-14-18-16-16)

17 Miami (17-13-13-25-24-19-17-24-25-26-26-26-18)

18 Oakland (5-4-5-7-16-26-11-14-12-12-16-14-14)

19 Green Bay (2-5-4-4-3-15-19-19-21-20-23-23-20)

20 Detroit (18-14-14-12-14-13-15-17-18-18-15-18-22)

21 New York Jets (32-32-29-29-28-28-26-25-20-22-22-22-17)

22 Washington (24-18-18-20-20-16-21-22-15-15-17-17-21)

23 Arizona (22-20-24-24-26-24-28-28-28-28-28-28-28)

24 Chicago (19-23-22-23-25-23-23-23-22-23-24-24-26)

25 Cincinnati (28-28-27-22-23-21-27-27-26-27-25-25-23)

26 Houston (25-25-25-15-19-18-18-18-23-24-21-21-25)

27 Denver (10-8-7-5-4-11-20-20-24-25-27-27-27)

28 Tampa Bay (12-10-12-16-17-25-24-26-27-21-20-20-24)

THIRD TIER

29 Indianapolis (30-30-30-30-30-30-30-30-30-29-29-29-29)

30 San Francisco (31-31-32-31-31-31-31-31-31-30-30-30-30)

31 New York Giants (27-27-28-28-29-29-29-29-29-31-31-31-31)

FOURTH TIER

32 Cleveland (29-29-31-32-32-32-32-32-32-32-32-32-32)


BIGGEST RISERS: Arizona (5 spots), Kansas City and New Orleans (4 spots), Carolina and Jacksonville (3 spots)


BIGGEST FALLERS: Philadelphia (6 spots), New York Jets, Oakland, Seattle and Tampa Bay (4 spots)


RANKINGS BY DIVISION – 1 POINT PER RANKING SPOT FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL TEAM

1 NFC SOUTH 42

2 AFC EAST 56

3 NFC NORTH 66

4 NFC WEST 68

5 AFC WEST 70

6 NFC EAST 74

7T AFC NORTH 76

7T AFC SOUTH 76


RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE

1 NFC 250

2 AFC 278

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Sixers need to readjust their late-game defense


By Steve Kallas (posted by Rick Morris)


It seems clear that the Philadelphia 76ers, after years of “trusting the process,” have come away with two All-Star, at some point (IF they stay healthy) superstar, players in Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.  Barring a big injury to one or both, they certainly look like a playoff team in the “better but still not as good as the West” Eastern Conference.


SO, WHAT HAPPENED AGAINST THE LAKERS?


The Sixers turned a winnable game into a loss on Thursday, December 7, against a Laker team that was desperate for a win after losing five in a row.  The Sixers made no defensive adjustments down the stretch and it cost them the game.  What do we mean?


Well, after battling back from 15 down with 11 minutes left, the Sixers, inexplicably, were trying to fight over picks down the stretch when the ball was 25 feet or more from the basket.  To make matters worse, two of the three times (both with Ben Simmons defending), Lonzo Ball (shooting 25% from three) was the ball handler.


HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED ON THOSE THREE PLAYS


On the first play, with the Lakers up one with 3:17 left in the fourth quarter, Ball has the ball four or five feet behind the three-point line when Julius Randle comes to pick Simmons.  Simmons attempts (why?) to get over the pick (rather than under it – Ball is a horrible three-point shooter), Embiid jumps out to pick up Ball, who throws a nice bounce pass to Randle, who goes in and scores on a tough lay-up on the left side (remember, Randle is lefty).  The Lakers go up three.


On their next possession, up one again after an Embiid basket, the Lakers run the same play.  Randle sets the pick for Ball with about 2:41 left, Simmons again (why?) tries to go over the pick and fails, Embiid jumps out on Ball, who again passes to Randle, who this time gets hammered at the basket and makes one of two free throws to go up two.


On their next possession, after a Richaun Holmes dunk (and did he play well), with 2:15 to play, the Lakers run the same play for the third straight possession.  This time, Brandon Ingram has the ball some 30 feet from the basket.  Randle comes over and sets the same pick (even a little higher this time).  This time, Robert Covington tries to fight over the pick (why?), Holmes, guarding Randle, jumps out almost to the three-point line to pick up Ingram who passes to Randle for the easiest of the three lay-ups Randle took on those three possessions.  Lakers up two again.


WHAT’S A DEFENDER TO DO?


Well, if you’ve played ball at any reasonable level (high school, college or higher), you know that, generally speaking, you are taught to battle, to belly up to your guy, to fight over the pick.  But there are instances (like the three possessions discussed above) when it is just plain stupid to fight over the pick. 


Lonzo Ball is shooting 24% from three in this, his first season shooting from the more distant NBA three-point line.  So what happens if Simmons goes below the pick, moves his feet and meets Ball on the other side? 


Nothing happens.  There’s no switch, there’s no threat of an easy left side lay-up for the lefty Randle and the Lakers have to run something else.  If Ball pulls up behind the screen and takes a long three, you thank him.


Even on the third possession, with Brandon Ingram (a 33% three-point shooter) with the ball even further away from the basket than Ball was, you go under the pick, and if he pulls up for about a 28-foot three, you thank him.


While it’s a basic tenet of good, “gritty” defense to fight over picks, it’s simply not always necessary.  Or smart.  As an absurd example to explain the difference, if Ball brings the ball across midcourt and Randle sets a pick 40 feet from the basket, nobody is really going to try to get over that pick.  The same applies when the ball handler either can’t shoot threes and/or is too far away to realistically take and make one.


You’ll often hear, when a guy like Steph Curry (and others) takes a three behind a pick and makes it, the announcer say “you have to fight over those picks or this guy will make threes all day.”  Well, that’s just not the case when the potential shooters are Lonzo Ball (24% from three) or even Ingram (33% from three but he was four feet back from where Ball was).


So the Lakers got five relatively easy points by running the same play that could easily have been better defended.


WHAT ABOUT THE FINAL BASKET?


Tie game, Ball misses a three and Embiid misses (with 13 seconds left) in close to set up the Lakers’ final possession.  Ball brings the ball across the midcourt line, passes it back to Ingram and runs to the corner behind the three-point line all alone.  Ingram gives it back to Ball in the corner.  Is he going to take a three?  No chance (he had just missed one, was 0-3 from three for the game and is under 25% for the season).


Embiid sprints out at Ball at full speed and Ball goes right around him, goes to the basket alone, has Covington (leaving Ingram alone at the three-point line) and Holmes converging on him and passes to Ingram for an open three that wins the game.


Is it too much to ask Embiid not to go full speed at Ball?  If he goes out at Ball, but not at full speed, is Ball going to shoot a three over Embiid’s waving hands?  Unlikely.  Is it too much to expect Embiid to not sprint out and get easily passed by Ball, who was all alone?  Maybe.


In baseball, they talk about the great infielder who knows the running speed of every batter so, if he makes an excellent play and knocks down the ball, he knows how much time he has to attempt to throw out that particular runner.


So, too, in basketball, when you are defending on picks above the three-point line and when you see terrible three-point shooters alone behind the three-point line, you have to make a split-second but intelligent decision on what to do: in the first instance, go under the pick; in the second, rush out quickly but not to the point of letting somebody blow right by you.


Can this be coached?  Absolutely.


ONE FINAL THING ON A SEPARATE ISSUE


There was that fiasco of a game back on November 29 where the Washington Wizards, down 15 to the Sixers in the middle of the fourth quarter, decided to take a shot and go Hack-a-Shaq on Ben Simmons.  Since you can’t foul off the ball in the final two minutes of any quarter (the new rule), the Wizards resorted to fouling Simmons for a four- to five-minute stretch until the 2:01 mark, cutting a 15-point lead down to three before losing the game to the Sixers by five.


While Commissioner Adam Silver was on the telecast explaining how the league had improved on a number of rules, including this one, the Wizards made a (legal) mockery of the game as Simmons took an NBA record 24 free throws in one quarter (making only 12, which is why the fiasco almost worked).


While the rule should be changed to make it either totally illegal or at least four or six minutes per quarter as opposed to two, the more interesting question is what can the Sixers do to limit the damage in these situations.


The answer is pretty simple – at a minimum, take Simmons out of the game for one offensive possession.  All these off-the-ball fouls were committed in a four- to five-minute span.  When the Sixers had the ball, they literally had it for three to five seconds before Simmons was fouled.  If you pull him for just one possession and run out virtually the full 24 seconds before shooting, you might be able to kill almost a minute of that time with good defense at the other end.  If you can afford to do it for more than one possession (if you are way up), that result would be even better.


Whatever you do, even if the other team runs their quick offense, you should be able to kill 45 seconds (including your possession) or more with this strategy.  It doesn’t sound like much, but in the 24 seconds you run your offense, Ben Simmons could have been (and was in this game) fouled three or even four times.


Just a thought for the next time this happens (if there is a next time).


© COPYRIGHT 2017 BY STEVE KALLAS ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Lounge on YouTube: Mini-Episode #925 – 2017 Fantasy Football Week 14 preview


By Rick Morris

Here is Mini-Episode #925 of The FDH Lounge, another edition of THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER, previewing Week 14 of the 2017 fantasy football season.


       


       


       


       

Lounge on YouTube: Mini-Episode #924 – 2017 NFL Week 14 preview


By Rick Morris


Here is Mini-Episode #924 of The FDH Lounge, previewing 2017 NFL Week 14.


       


       


       


       

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Lounge on YouTube: Jack Myers


By Rick Morris

FDH Lounge Mini-Episode #923 features a conversation with author Jack Myers, whose prescient new book THE FUTURE OF MEN correctly anticipated the present wave of high-profile sexual harassment scandals.


       


       


       


       

Lounge on YouTube: Mini-Episode #922 – 2017 Fantasy Football Week 13 preview


By Rick Morris

Here is Mini-Episode #922 of The FDH Lounge, another edition of THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER, previewing Week 13 of the 2017 fantasy football season.


       


       


       


       

Lounge on YouTube: Mini-Episode #921 – 2017 NFL Week 13 preview


By Rick Morris


Here is Mini-Episode #921 of The FDH Lounge, previewing 2017 NFL Week 13.


       


       


       


       

Lounge on YouTube: 2017-18 College Football Playoff & New Year’s Six predictions


By Rick Morris


The FDH Lounge predicts the lineup for the 2017-18 College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six bowls heading into the conference championships.


       


       


       


       

Lounge on YouTube: Matt Lauer Replacement Odds


By Rick Morris


The FDH Lounge assesses the candidates to replace Matt Lauer.


       


       


       


       

Lounge on YouTube: Guiding Light Part 7 series review


By Rick Morris


The FDH Lounge reviews America’s longest-running TV drama, Guiding Light.  This is Part 7.