ALDS and NLDS preview

By Rick Morris

My fellow FDH Lounge Dignitary Nate Noy agrees with me that Philadelphia is certainly the biggest favorite entering a postseason since the Yankees in 1998 – and arguably, since Oakland of 1989-91 (ironic, since Tony LaRussa awaits Philly in the first round this year) when you consider that New York had to potentially get past some battle-tested squads in Cleveland and Atlanta that autumn. It’s hard to find a team in this year’s field who would throw a huge scare into the Phils, especially considering the extent to which they would blow away any AL unit in terms of starting pitching depth. Well, except Tampa Bay, but that lineup might be lucky to get five hits a night off of the Philly hurlers.

As the first round dawns, we are adding a new feature to our previews this year: a rating of each team in five key categories with a numerical rating that correlates as follows:

Great – 5 points

Very Good – 4 points

Decent – 3 points

Poor – 2 points

Horrible – 1 point

For the teams who just missed out with their huge September chokes, here’s how they would have rated:

BOSTON (20)

Lineup Explosiveness: Great

Lineup Depth: Very Good

Starting Pitching, Top-End: Great

Starting Pitching Depth: Poor

Bullpen: Very Good (notwithstanding the last game!)

ATLANTA (16)

Lineup Explosiveness: Poor

Lineup Depth: Poor

Starting Pitching, Top-End: Very Good (tempered by the injury questions)

Starting Pitching Depth: Decent

Bullpen: Great (notwithstanding the last game!)

On with the series breakdowns:

DETROIT VS. NEW YORK YANKEES

DETROIT (17)

Lineup Explosiveness: Decent

Lineup Depth: Decent

Starting Pitching, Top-End: Great

Starting Pitching Depth: Decent

Bullpen: Decent

NEW YORK YANKEES (21)

Lineup Explosiveness: Great

Lineup Depth: Great

Starting Pitching Top-End: Very Good

Starting Pitching Depth: Poor

Bullpen: Great

Justin Verlander might well be able to beat any pitcher on the planet right now and Doug Fister looks like a more legit #2 pitcher than the overhyped Ivan Nova (think he’ll be getting six runs of support per game in October?). But other factors point to the Bombers: a superior lineup, a superior bullpen and, most importantly, home field. In the end, hosting the final game could well make the difference in a series that has the potential to be explosive, with the tide turning back and forth the whole way. Yankees in five.

TAMPA BAY VS. TEXAS

TAMPA BAY (15)

Lineup Explosiveness: Poor

Lineup Depth: Poor

Starting Pitching, Top-End: Great

Starting Pitching Depth: Very Good

Bullpen: Poor

TEXAS (21)

Lineup Explosiveness: Great

Lineup Depth: Great

Starting Pitching, Top-End: Decent

Starting Pitching Depth: Decent

Bullpen: Great

A year ago, when Texas got past Tampa, it was considered an upset in most quarters. In 2011, the shoe is on the other foot, as the defending AL champions are cruising into the playoffs after a strong year. The Rays are surging, as their rundown of Boston proved, but their lineup is putrid for a playoff team and they’ve got to be wondering what they’re going to get out of David Price right now. It’s a quintessential pitching vs. hitting matchup, and as such, maybe it’s risky to pick the Rangers when the arms are supposed to have the edge in October, but Texas is the best-balanced team in the American League. If Matt Moore can channel “David Price ’08,” then the Rays could have a chance and in fact this series is similar to the other AL one and different from the two NL ones in that it could likely tilt either way. Tampa Bay could make it very interesting with more timely hitting, but, as with the other ALDS pick, you’ve got to go with the more well-rounded squad. Rangers in five.

ST. LOUIS VS. PHILADELPHIA

ST. LOUIS (18)

Lineup Explosiveness: Great

Lineup Depth: Decent

Starting Pitching, Top-End: Poor

Starting Pitching Depth: Decent

Bullpen: Great

PHILADELPHIA (23)

Lineup Explosiveness: Very Good

Lineup Depth: Very Good

Starting Pitching, Top End: Great

Starting Pitching Depth: Great

Bullpen: Very Good

Given that the Cards’ lineup isn’t anything to write home about aside from their otherworldly middle and the pitching doesn’t resemble a typical Dave Duncan crew, this series looks even easier for Philly than their squashing of Cincinnati in the first round last year. Even if the Cards fluke out a win, they know they have to steal two more in an incredibly lopsided pitching matchup. If Albert Pujols is on his way out of St. Louis, this series could be an even more anti-climactic ending than a playoff near-miss would have been. Phillies in three.

ARIZONA VS. MILWAUKEE

ARIZONA (17)

Lineup Explosiveness: Decent

Lineup Depth: Decent

Starting Pitching, Top-End: Very Good

Starting Pitching Depth: Decent

Bullpen: Very Good

MILWAUKEE (20)

Lineup Explosiveness: Great

Lineup Depth: Very Good

Starting Pitching, Top-End: Decent (on paper, could be better than they have been)

Starting Pitching Depth: Very Good

Bullpen: Very Good

Every postseason features at least one scruffy mutt without the pedigree to have been fingered for this honor at the start of the year. Arizona is the only team that comes close that billing in 2011. Like their ’98 expansion brethren Tampa Bay, their lineup is not great, but they’ve put together timely hitting to coincide with the emergence of excellent young pitching (coincidentally, the Brewers moved to the NL in the last wave of realignment/expansion in the late ‘90s). Milwaukee, like Texas, is well-balanced, but they are even better. Their starting pitchers are capable of even more than they showed in the regular season. On paper, they are the team most capable of pulling off the historic upset that any Philly series loss would constitute this October. To get that chance (in an NLCS matchup that I predicted before the season; check Page 21), they’ll have to get past the prototypical dangerous young team that doesn’t know that they don’t belong. They should, but it won’t be easy. Brewers in four.

LCS

Rangers over Yankees in six.

Phillies over Brewers in five.

WORLD SERIES

Phillies over Rangers in five.