Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Brady and Manning through the lens of a cold Super Bowl
By Steve Kallas (posted by Rick Morris)
Well, that was a game for the ages this past Sunday night as Tom Brady and the Patriots, down 24-0 at the half (at home) to Peyton Manning and the Broncos, stormed back in the second half to take the lead and eventually beat the Broncos in overtime, 34-31.
Manning has had trouble in Foxboro and in the cold his entire career. ESPN came up with the fascinating stat that, since 2003, Tom Brady is 23-5 in games played in freezing temperatures while Manning is 1-6.
While there are many factors in addition to the play of a quarterback in deciding NFL games, this is still a meaningful stat.
HERE’S THE PROBLEM FOR MANNING
While many consider Peyton Manning to be the greatest “regular season” quarterback of all-time, it really is, in part, a function of being a “dome” quarterback for much of his career. What Tom Brady has done outdoors (especially in New England), to this writer, is simply more impressive than anything Manning has done, no matter how many regular season MVPs (4) Peyton Manning has won.
The reality is it is unfair to compare quarterbacks who play much of their career in domes (Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are the two that come immediately to mind) to those who don’t (Brady and, to a lesser degree, Eli Manning, come to mind). While modern-day stat guys might think they can compare the two, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to really understand the impact freezing cold and a swirling wind (for example) can have In a particular game, a particular quarter, a particular play.
But what was obvious this past Sunday night is that, at least since his multiple neck injuries, Peyton Manning simply does not have the arm strength to throw the ball into the wind like Tom Brady does. You don’t have to be Ron Jaworski to see that some of Manning’s passes flutter and “just don’t get there” (those were Jaworski’s words as he pointed this out after Sunday night’s game).
Fast-forward that to a Super Bowl outdoors at Met Life Stadium in New Jersey in February (never mind the Farmer’s Almanac prediction of a snow storm), and it’s obvious that the Broncos, if they get there, will be at a disadvantage.
WHAT DID WE SEE THE OTHER NIGHT WHEN ANALYZING WHETHER THE PATRIOTS OR THE BRONCOS WILL GET TO THE SUPER BOWL?
Well, we know that, generally speaking, the Patriots are one of the (if not the most) mentally tough teams in the NFL. While that didn’t help them beat the Giants in the last two Super Bowls they were in, it is something that has been established over the last decade or so. And it certainly was apparent Sunday night in New England.
Manning’s numbers were pedestrian this past Sunday: 19-36 for 150 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Brady was 34-50 for 344 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Can Manning play well in the cold and wind? He can. Can he win in inclement weather? He can. But not as often and not as well as Tom Brady. He simply has not played in those elements enough to compare with someone who does it routinely. It’s not his fault. But there is a clear difference between the two, especially post- neck injuries for Manning.
WHAT ABOUT THE BILL BELICHICK FACTOR?
Well, that’s another advantage that Brady has over Manning. The question isn’t whether Bill Belichick made the right call Sunday night by deferring in an overtime to give Peyton Manning (Peyton Manning! Greatest regular season QB ever!) the ball to start OT. That was a brilliant move.
The questions are: 1) How many NFL coaches would have even thought to do that? Answer: very few; and 2) Of the few who would have thought of it, how many would have had the guts to actually do it? Answer: virtually none.
That’s one of those coaching decisions that, if you make it and you are wrong, you look like an idiot.
It’s also a decision that Belichick would not have made but for the relatively new overtime rule that, if you kick a field goal on your first possession, the other team gets the ball. This was a brilliant decision and is just another example of why Belichick is the best NFL coach today and one of the greatest coaches of all-time (and this is being written by a N.Y. Giants fan).
And make no mistake – the Patriots did not win because of that move by Belichick (although it did put them in a better position to win, the coach’s job). They won because Wes Welker (of all people), taken out of the game by Belichick’s game-planning, failed to run up two yards and catch a catchable punt, which led to the disastrous conclusion for Denver.
SO, WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE US?
Well, it says here that the AFC Super Bowl representative will come from either Denver or New England. One of the reasons that this writer picked New England to go to the Super Bowl is the potential Manning v. Brady battle in the cold in the playoffs. I certainly didn’t think that Manning could beat Brady in Foxboro (where he is now 2-7 lifetime). But he almost did. I certainly do think that Brady can beat Manning in Denver.
With Kansas City in the mix (I just don’t think they have quite enough experience, etc. to get to a Super Bowl this year), home field becomes an even bigger issue as Arrowhead is a very tough place to play. But, while the saying goes that defense travels, the bigger saying should be that mental toughness travels.
And the Patriots have the edge in that department.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THE PATRIOTS?
Well, many thought it would be the offense without all those receivers. But Brady, for a number of years, has done more with less than any other quarterback. You knew that the Patriots offense would be fine when Rob Gronkowski came back and when Danny Amendola (always a question mark) got healthy and when Julian Edelman became the factor that he has become (along with Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson). And when the Patriots continued to have a running game (although they will have to correct Fumblers, Inc., something Bill Belichick will not put up with).
The Patriots problem, frankly, is on the defensive side of the ball. At full strength, they had their best defense in a number of years. But with nobody to really replace Vince Wilfork (the Broncos gashed the Patriots up the middle in the running game; Knowshon Moreno went for 224 yards rushing) and the also great loss of Jerod Mayo (leading tackler), it says here that the Patriots won’t have enough to beat Seattle (which now has its own issues with Brandon Browner suspended for a year).
In a season of the MFL (Mediocre Football League) where the 0-6 Giants were still in the playoff hunt and a 5-6 team in the AFC has a playoff spot after 11 games “if the playoffs started today,” the NFL has what it wants: almost every team has a chance for the playoffs.
While that is a sad thing, it still has class at the top.
And it says here that the top of the class is Seattle and New England.
We will see what happens.
@ COPYRIGHT 2013 BY STEVE KALLAS ALL RIGHTS RESERVED