...On the Matthew Berry Front...

by Jason Jones

We have been hammering home this idea that the #1 perceived sports network's (ESPN) lead fantasy sports expert is a sham or a mockery, in Matthew Berry's case; a SHAMOCKERY. I have no doubt that anyone who is serious about fantasy sports could easily do as well if not better than Berry without trying very hard. When the guy is not giving safe advice (LaDainian Tomlinson is worth a top 5 pick), he is giving bad advice (bench Adrian Peterson against San Diego, which by the way was the game he broke the single-game rushing record). The guy has a list of players to never draft under any circumstances. Anyone who knows fantasy sports knows, the beauty of the game is how each circumstance is different and each fantasy owner must adjust accordingly. Before the '07 season, he said never draft Terrell Owens. Maybe if you believe T.O. is not worth taking in the first or second round, that's fine. What if everyone in your league is thinking the same thing, you mean to tell me that you wouldn't take T.O. in the 4th or 5th when the value dictates that you HAVE TO take him. The guy lead all receivers in TDs in '06. The guy is an idiot. As if I am the only one who feels this way, here are some points made on a non-FDH affiliated message board.

-He is that dude that came on ESPN last night and said people are drafting Ryan Howard too early. He is the same guy that had his own fantasy football show on ESPN this year, and b/c of him, I drafted Chris Chambers real early, and he sucked this year. He is a smug, cocky, idiot, and I am 100% positive all of us here could run circles around him at his job. Ya feel me!!!

-Agreed...him being on TV really has annoyed me. I used to read his website, but since he aired on ESPN I have realized his information is useless. I think I saw some website who compared and analyzed his rankings (for basketball) against other sites and his picks were by far the worst overall.

-He is definitely too cocky for me, too bad ESPN partnered with him.he keeps saying Igawa will have DiceK like numbers. i dunno about that.

Now clearly, this was in response to comments made pre-baseball season. The Kei Igawa thing is almost unforgivable in hindsight. That's convenient to say now, I know. If you really look and/or listen to Matthew Berry, those comments come up more often than not. The guy really doesn't know what he's talking about. Fantasy sports can not be relegated to crunching stats and matchups as the only literal approach to the analysis. As we at FDH say often, its all situational and value is the most important factor. Here's a fun tidbit of analysis.

The following is a fantasy team of mine that I did just for fun, winning a title.

QB-Tom Brady
RB-Jamal Lewis
RB-Adrian Peterson
WR-Randy Moss
WR-Chad Johnson
WR-Calvin Johnson
TE-Kellen Winslow
K-Jason Hanson
DEF-Jacksonville

All due to VALUE, VALUE, VALUE

According to Berry,

^ Tom Brady is in the top 4-6 QB fantasy wise (League MVP, and finished 4800 yds/50tds)

^ Jamal Lewis is over the hill and done (1300 yds/11 combined tds)

^ Adrian Peterson, never draft rookies (1341 yds/13 combined tds-oh, and rushing champ)

^ Randy Moss, he will never be the Moss of old, (1493 yds/23 F#$@ing tds!)

^ Chad Johnson, he's good but not worth taking too high (1440 yds/8tds in a very down year)

^ Calvin Johnson, he's a rookie so don't bother (756 yds/5 tds-not great but a decent 3rd WR)

^ Kellen Winslow, hasn't proven himself enough to worry about (1106 yds/5tds-4th best fantasy TE)

^ Jason Hanson, who cares about kickers anyway? (139 fantasy points-5th best K points wise)

^ Jacksonville, don't worry about defenses, i.e. Punt the position (14th best and taken late)

Here's the point. It's all about value. In hindsight it would make sense if the draft went-Brady (1st), A. Peterson (2nd), and Moss (3rd). That is clearly not how it went down. The following is the order in which players were selected. Again remember value is everything. If I listened to Berry there is no way I could have drafted this team.

1st round (pick 8) Chad Johnson
2nd round (pick 13) Randy Moss
3rd round (pick 28) Tom Brady
4th round (pick 33) Calvin Johnson
5th round (pick 48) Jamal Lewis
6th round (pick 53) Cadillac Williams
7th round (pick 68) Matt Hasselbeck
8th round (pick 73) Adrian Peterson
9th round (pick 88) Kellen Winslow
10th round (pick 93) Jay Cutler
11th round (pick 108) Joe Horn
12th round (pick 113) Devin Hester
13th round (pick 128) Greg Olsen
14th round (pick 133) Jacksonville
15th round (pick 148) Jason Hanson

Note: 6th round pick C.Williams never played. If you draft correctly a third of your picks will never play outside of bye weeks (Hasselbeck, Cutler, Horn, Hester, Olsen).

The value displayed here is unreal. As impossible as it may seem, this is the kind of analysis and success you can come to expect from www.fantasydrafthelp.com, not Matthew Berry.

I would put up my best team from '07 (I love to draft so I have upwards of 14 teams) against any of Berry's and would smoke him by Week 8.

Another Reason To NEVER Listen To Mr. ROTO

by Jason Jones

It is no surprise that, we at FantasyDraftHelp.com do not think Roto is as talented as he thinks he is. Deep down, the guy is an idiot. This is the same guy that said after T.O. lead the league in touchdowns receptions, that you should NEVER draft T.O. What if T.O. is available in the 8th round? Should we still never draft him? The same nimrod who said always play and/or consider the matchups. Specifically, BENCH ADRIAN PETERSON AGAINST THE CHARGERS, if you don't remember Peterson broke the single game rushing record that day. So, here are even more examples of why ESPN should never not associate their name with his. The following was published, which blows my mind, in the December issue of ESPN the Magazine..."it's been six years since I’ve owned Fred Taylor on any fantasy team, and it will be seven next season. Why? Because in 2001, I declared him dead to me. Never again, I swore to myself. And even though swearing to yourself about fantasy football isn’t the best to keep your friends around, I can’t help it. So it’s time for this year’s version of 'the Dead To Me List'. These guys might produce great seasons in the future, and have lovely personalities to boot, but it doesn’t matter. In my world, they cease to exist"

WOW!!! What a D-Bag. This is the guy that who ESPN goes to when fantasy football questions arise. Millions of fantasy football managers are going to his site and watching his pieces on ESPN television in the hopes of getting solid advice. And this is the guy who each and every year is downsizing the number of players those people will draft. Along with his “umbrella rules” and other rigid ways of thinking are dooming fantasy owners everywhere. Never draft rookie RB’s (Adrian Peterson), never draft rookie WR’s (Dwayne Bowe, 995 yds and 5 td’s with 7 games with more than 4 receptions), always draft RB/RB back to back-you won’t survive if you don’t (my ’07 roster would disagree…T.Brady, R.Moss, C.Johnson, R.Wayne, J.Lewis, A.Peterosn, K.Winslow)… I could go on all day with the ways that ROTO is WRONG, but I’ll let you see what I mean.

1. Fred Taylor-Never draft Fred Taylor because he was injured most of 2001. I go one further, Fred Taylor was hurt most of his career, but depending on the value as the draft continues Fred Taylor may become very tantalizing. If Fred Taylor is available to be your 3^rd RB, by all means it makes sense to draft him. If you want to say that you don’t think it’s wise to draft Taylor, say that its because he splitting carries with the guy who will eventually replace him, not because you have a stick up your ass about something that happened 7 years ago. S***, I had Randy Moss in 2006, that didn’t stop me from drafting him in the 3^rd Round in 2007. And why? Because I am not an idiot like ROTO.
2. Shaun Alexander-He claims that this decision was made solely on his performance (or lack there of) against Cleveland in week 9. Again, and ROTO is famous for this, “focused on the wrong details”. If you don’t think Shaun is worth the risk, at least come up with more than one game (or at least 2 and a half quarters) to arrive at that decision. Look, Shaun is not the Shaun of even 2005. Seattle does not have a contingency plan at RB for the long term. They are going to have to rely on Alexander until a replacement can be groomed. And they will not get one drafting where they are (at least not one that will be ready until 2009-2010). Now if they sign a guy like Michael Turner in Free Agency, then maybe the Shaun Alexander issue will be a more urgent one to consider.
3. Laurence Maroney-The Patriots scored 355 points in the first 9 games and Maroney didn’t get in the endzone once. LOOK DIPS*#@!! This is a great example as to why ROTO doesn’t know D@#%. Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, and Ben Watson. The first time Brady truly had a dangerous WR core to pass to. There was a great possibility that they wouldn’t even get to the red zone. Its just like playing madden. If you’re good enough, you can lead the league in scoring and never get inside your opponents 30 yard line. Some day soon, Maroney may be a top 10 RB in the league. I can only hope I am in a league with ROTO and wax the floor with him. At this rate, he’ll be turning down 5 players out of every 12 picks.
4. Cedric Benson-Look, Benson has been a huge disappointment. I can’t really look down on someone who doesn’t feel confident that Benson can carry a team. But to say you write him off for good, is just asinine. Maybe some day Benson gets his head out of his conceited ass. Maybe some day he will realize that getting picked in the top 5 doesn’t extend to you anything. Never is a very close minded approach, especially in Fantasy Football
5. Norv Turner-HOLY S@#$. “It’s any player he’s touched as a head coach or coordinator”. This basically says that JaMarcus Russell, and more importantly Tomlinson, Rivers, and Gates are no longer worthy of being drafted in any Fantays league. He must not have thought this one out, ROTO, you can’t be this stupid.
6. Santana Moss-I think at this point he is just trying to fill the space left on the page. Does anyone believe that Santana Moss is a legit #1 WR? You better not. This is more about ROTO not properly evaluating than it is hating on Santana Moss. Santana Moss may be the best shifty slot receiver in the game if they’d ever use him correctly. In Washington, they have to work him like a #1 because he is the best they’ve got. Put Santana Moss on the Patriots and not Welker or Stallworth. His stat line would definitely be worth having on your fantasy team. Conversely, give Washington a legit #1 WR (6’2 or taller, 205-230lbs, 4.4 40 or better) and even ROTO will have to reconsider his take on Santana Moss. Oh, and this just pissed me off…”Every time he (Santana Moss) drops a pass, a Jets fan gets his wings.” Who the F@#$ are you? Why the Jets? A Cowboy fan getting wings at least makes sense in a drug-induced stuper. And I am now dumber for having spent any time on that stupid It’s A Wonderful Life reference.

I’m done. I can only focus on “The Talent-Less Mr. ROTO” for so long. My head hurts.

'08 NFL Draft Profile. . .Darren McFadden

by Jason Jones

Darren McFadden – RB – Univ. of Arkansas – 6’2, 205

One word comes to mind, COMPLETE. Let’s get this out of the way, last summer he got into a fist fight in a parking lot (DON’T MAKE ANYTHING OF IT) Most people from casual fans to elite analysts believe Darren McFadden is one of those revolutionary players. Barring injuring, is he a hall of fame quality player? No question, the real question is how good he can be. Potentially, all things considered there is some potential that the age old question 30 years would be, “Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders and Darren McFadden”. Now naturally that is extremely far fetched today. However, there is no denying the fact that he has the gradable skills as well as intangible abilities. After the season Adrian Peterson has had in Minnesota, remember I was the one who said, “Peterson is the best RB to enter the NFL Draft since Emmitt Smith or better. As far as the measurables, they are very similar, but McFadden is slightly better in all of them. Size, speed, strength, vision, agility, football IQ, catching the ball, running between the tackles, running outside the tackles, everything. Darren McFadden may be the best running back drafted since Walter Payton; that’s right I said what you are afraid to say. One NFL Draft analyst said, “Darren McFadden is CLEARLY the best SEC running back since Bo Jackson”, now he isn’t that strong but after looking at the SEC over history , that is not far fetched at all. McFadden is the most complete running back that I can comprehend (at least as we are preparing for the draft, things can always change). He runs in the 4.4 range and is extremely shifty. He is good enough to carry the load (25+ carries a game throughout the duration of an NFL season) easy, he is probably a 4.5 yards per carry or better and that’s without breaking big runs. If he goes to the right situation and stays healthy, there is no reason to think he couldn’t rush for 1500 yds or 2000 yds from scrimmage his rookie year. If you are looking forward to seeing him wow GM’s at the combine, make other plans. Darren McFadden will not participate (conventional wisdom, 90% sure), and to be honest he may be the first prospect since Peyton Manning who really doesn’t NEED to.

Darren McFadden is hard to compare to other players, but here we go: A thin Bo Jackson, young Eddie George, prime Marshall Faulk, with Earl Campbell tendencies.

2008 NFL DRAFT PROJECTIONS: High First Round (no worse than 3)

If it weren’t for need being outside the running back position he would be the no questioned #1. 80% of the NFL would take him #1 regardless of their RB situation. I personally believe that Miami and St. Louis reside in the 10%