By Rick Morris
The driver with the best car on the track did not win the race today. Instead, his brother ended up giving a bump-draft to the eventual winner.
All day long, commentators and drivers alike commented on "the power of the 18," as Kyle Busch's car allowed him to lead the most laps and put him in position to become the youngest winner in the history of the race in its 50th running. But with utter chaos prevailing after the green flag reemerged in the final four laps, a jammed-up front of the field saw classic restrictor-plate parity at the end. Kyle Busch ended up on the yellow line down low and would have been penalized for making a pass at that point. The ultimate beneficiary ended up being Ryan Newman, who received a push from teammate Kurt Busch as both blew past Tony Stewart to give Roger Penske his first victory at Daytona and a 1-2 finish to boot for the Penske Dodges. Stewart finished third, Kyle Busch fourth and Reed Sorenson a surprising fifth.
After speaking with FantasyDrafthelp.com NASCAR analyst Mike Ptak, some postrace thoughts came into clear focus:
^ In our final Daytona 500 preview on our fantasy sports show last Thursday night, Mike and I agreed that one of the elements that would render an IRL-Champ Car merger five years to late to matter would be the fact that Penske was getting more immersed in the NASCAR side of operations. Today's outcome will only strengthen Penske's attention to NASCAR, likely at the expense of open-wheel.
^ Mike noted the presence of Helio Castroneves at the race as a guest of Penske's. Newman's contract is up at the end of 2008, but now he'll enter negotiations to keep his seat away from Helio as the defending Daytona 500 champion. Interesting ...
^ Lil'E correctly noted in the interviews afterwards that the early departures of his new teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon hurt him in terms of getting the necessary help that other drivers received from their stablemates. We will see more demonstrations of teamwork than ever, as what is now the Car of Today continues to build towards more parity on the track -- much like the restrictor plates already do at Daytona and Talladega.
^ The fact that Kyle Busch had the greatest car by far came as a surprise to everyone. Regardless of the extremely fortuitous circumstances that made Ryan Newman a first-time Daytona 500 winner, Kyle Busch emerges from today as the man who gained the most attention going forward.
Showing posts with label Jimmie Johnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jimmie Johnson. Show all posts
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Daytona 500 preview
By Rick Morris
As an admitted huge open-wheel fan, I'd love to be able to make a shocking prediction that one of the invaders such as Sam Hornish, Jr. will shock the world today and show just how great these drivers are. But I can't, not yet. Maybe, hopefully, next year.
In previewing the field, I can't find much to argue with in terms of the conventional wisdom regarding projected order of finish. My initial inclination was to go with a straight-chalk Hendrick sweep of win/place/show with Jimmie Johnson, Lil'E and Jeff Gordon.
However, keeping in mind the fact that nothing ever plays out exactly as initially forecast at Daytona, I'm shaking it up a bit in my prognostications:
WIN: Matt Kenseth. I've seen many predictions that were off the beaten track in terms of deviating from the aforementioned bunch and a few others (Tony Stewart, defending champ Kevin Harvick). But EVERYONE is overlooking one of the consensus top five stock car drivers in the world in Kenseth. I know that he generally accrues points from finishing high as opposed to winning, but he's given off some statements this week that indicate that he is especially motivated by feeling overlooked in the whole media Hendrickpolooza. Plus, he's the third-best driver of the past three years on restrictor-plate tracks as determined by our standard deviation from the mean statistic (available in our free 2008 FantasyDrafthelp.com Fantasy NASCAR Draft Guide). If I'm going to go for an overlooked driver, I'll do so with a great one who has a proven track record at Daytona/Talladega.
PLACE: Jamie McMurray. In terms of past finishes, one of these three drivers is likely to be a fairly extreme longshot. McMurray won last summer's NASCAR event at this track and he is 13th over the past three years on our aforementioned standard deviation from the mean stat.
SHOW: Jeff Gordon. This one is kind of a gut instinct. It's easier for me to imagine Gordon finishing behind Kenseth and McMurray than it is The New Number 88 or Jimmie Johnson. Quite simply, if I'm wrong about Double 8 or JJ being out of the running by the end, I'd expect either of them to win. I could see Gordon being in the running but not having enough to finish. Again, I can't defend that scientifically, it's just an educated guess on my part.
As an admitted huge open-wheel fan, I'd love to be able to make a shocking prediction that one of the invaders such as Sam Hornish, Jr. will shock the world today and show just how great these drivers are. But I can't, not yet. Maybe, hopefully, next year.
In previewing the field, I can't find much to argue with in terms of the conventional wisdom regarding projected order of finish. My initial inclination was to go with a straight-chalk Hendrick sweep of win/place/show with Jimmie Johnson, Lil'E and Jeff Gordon.
However, keeping in mind the fact that nothing ever plays out exactly as initially forecast at Daytona, I'm shaking it up a bit in my prognostications:
WIN: Matt Kenseth. I've seen many predictions that were off the beaten track in terms of deviating from the aforementioned bunch and a few others (Tony Stewart, defending champ Kevin Harvick). But EVERYONE is overlooking one of the consensus top five stock car drivers in the world in Kenseth. I know that he generally accrues points from finishing high as opposed to winning, but he's given off some statements this week that indicate that he is especially motivated by feeling overlooked in the whole media Hendrickpolooza. Plus, he's the third-best driver of the past three years on restrictor-plate tracks as determined by our standard deviation from the mean statistic (available in our free 2008 FantasyDrafthelp.com Fantasy NASCAR Draft Guide). If I'm going to go for an overlooked driver, I'll do so with a great one who has a proven track record at Daytona/Talladega.
PLACE: Jamie McMurray. In terms of past finishes, one of these three drivers is likely to be a fairly extreme longshot. McMurray won last summer's NASCAR event at this track and he is 13th over the past three years on our aforementioned standard deviation from the mean stat.
SHOW: Jeff Gordon. This one is kind of a gut instinct. It's easier for me to imagine Gordon finishing behind Kenseth and McMurray than it is The New Number 88 or Jimmie Johnson. Quite simply, if I'm wrong about Double 8 or JJ being out of the running by the end, I'd expect either of them to win. I could see Gordon being in the running but not having enough to finish. Again, I can't defend that scientifically, it's just an educated guess on my part.
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