By Nate Noy
A number of significant events occurred yesterday in the conference tournaments.
I believe Va Tech’s win puts them in, and along with Michigan’s win, drops Marquette out of the tournament. Additionally, even though it was one of the ugliest games since my sister’s 8th grade basketball season, Penn State is now on the bubble by taking out Wisconsin.
Also, a number of games had a major impact on the projected seedings. Here are my thoughts by conference as we close in on the selections:
Big East (10)
Pitt: As mentioned earlier in the week, last year Syracuse went 15-3 in Big East play, wining the regular season title and losing in its first conference tournament game; the reward was a #1 seed. I believe Pitt will enjoy the same fate this year.
Notre Dame: For now, they drop back to the #2 line, with an outside chance at a #1 if Duke goes down.
Louisville: They have played their way into a solid #3 and a win tomorrow likely pushes them to the 2 line.
Syracuse: Had they won the tournament, I thought they would grab a #2 seed, with the loss to UConn I have to place them back on the 4 line.
UConn: Or is that the U of Kemba Walker? Four wins in four days, do I hear 5? Clearly, they have earned at a minimum a #4 seed even if they get crushed by Louisville, with a shot at a #3 right now thanks to such an impressive run; win the next one and the 3 line should be a lock. This looks like the team from Maui.
The next five are where I had them previously: St Johns (5), WVU (6), Georgetown (6), UC (8) and Nova (9).
Marquette: Very debatable, and most still have them in, but I believe it is more likely now that they are a #1 seed in the NIT -- thus making them one of my last four out.
Big Ten (6)
OSU: Survived OT thanks to Sullinger, no question now they WILL either be the first or second overall #1 seed.
Purdue: The hammering they took at the hands of MSU, coupled with last week’s loss to IA, drops them to the 3 line.
Wisconsin: Ugly is an understatement for what they looked like against PSU. I drop them to the 5 line after that.
Illinois: Tough loss against Michigan, but still safely in at the 9 or 10 line.
Michigan State: By dismantling Purdue, I move them from play-in status to at least the 11 line, with a chance to move up with another win against PSU.
Michigan: Back in after the big win over Illinois, looks like the 11 line with a chance to be in the play-in game if they get thumped by the Buckeyes.
Penn State: Should be a safe bet for a #1 seed in the NIT now. Moves into my last four out group, a win against MSU puts them right in the mix, but it likely would take that and a VERY close game against OSU for them to take an at large; however, they are not done yet, and could even still take the auto-bid.
SEC (6)
Florida: Not much has changed for them, win against Vandy and the 3 line should be a safe bet.
Kentucky: A #3 is not out of the question if they win the next two games, for now still on the 4 line.
Vanderbilt: A win against Florida puts them in strong contention for a top-16 seed, otherwise safely on the 5 line.
Tennessee: They have had 8/9 or 7/10 written all over them for a while now. I see them still on the 9 line.
Alabama: Most so-called “experts” still have them out. I think the Committee will reward them for the wins over UK, Tenn, and GA twice, coupled with the 12 regular-season SEC wins. Will I be “shocked” if they are left out? No. But I think the Committee will give them an 11 or 12 seed and perhaps make them “play-in."
Georgia: A tough OT loss to Bama, but after further review, I think they are still in (at the expense of Colorado who they beat head-to-head). They are pretty much in the same position as Bama when it comes to seeding, the high RPI “could” push them as high as the 10 line, but I think the 11 or 12 is more likely.
Big 12 (5)
Kansas: Even a loss to Texas will not keep this team off the 1 line; the only question now is if a big win against Texas could be enough for the #1 overall.
Texas: With Purdue fading like they did and Syracuse losing, I have Texas back on the 2 line.
Texas A&M: Should still be a good bet for the 5 line and will fall no lower than 6.
Kansas State: All the losses to Colorado hurt, but the wins over Texas and Kansas keep them on the 7 line.
Missouri: Looks like another classic 8/9 team with the way they faded at the end against quality opponents, could end up as high as 7.
Colorado: A wild card as I previously called them. Others have them in, and I have gone back and forth on this team, but the loss to Georgia and the low RPI and SOS should be just enough for them to be another #1 seed in the NIT and one of my last four teams out.
ACC (5)
Duke: I now have Duke back on the #1 line with the ND loss. Winning the next two days should lock it up.
UNC: Survived a serious scare against Miami, looks like a solid #3 still with a shot to land a #2.
FSU: The last second loss to Va Tech likely drops them to the 9 or 10 line.
Clemson: Destroyed BC and should be safe; I have them on the 10 line for now.
Va Tech: A big win over FSU; I now project them to be one of the play-in teams.
BC: Now looks to be a #1 or #2 seed, in the NIT, that is. One of my last four out.
Pac 10 (3)
Arizona v UW is a classic match-up and I believe a win by Arizona keeps them on the 4 line even though the conference has been weak this year. UW and UCLA are likely to land on the 9-11 lines with UW still in play for a 7 should they win. One thing is for sure, the NIT will be filled with Pac 10 teams this year.
MWC (3)
I now believe the winner of BYU/SDST gets a #2 and the loser gets a #3. I had BYU down at the 4 line, but they have been redeemed thanks to the Jimmer. UNLV should be a solid 7.
Atlantic 10 (3)
The Xavier loss opens things up for Temple even more, but they have to get by Richmond. I would not be shocked to see a Richmond v Dayton final on Sunday, and I still believe the A10 is in line for three bids, as long as Temple does not crush Richmond tomorrow and something crazy like Utah State losing does not happen.
CAA (2)
I have seen a few people add VCU to the safe pick of George Mason and the auto-bid ODU. But with an RPI of 50, I believe there are already 8 other more deserving candidates for the 8 at large spots I expect to come from the non-BCS schools.
WCC (2)
Saint Mary’s is still an at-large for me with the auto-big Gonzaga. They played Weber State and dismantled them in one last regular season game on Friday. The top-50 RPI, the solid non-conference schedule and the politics of giving at least 8 at large bids to the non-BCS schools should be enough to get SMC in.
MVC (2)
Missouri State should make it along with the auto-bid Indiana State for many of the same reasons as SMC, but they are still vulnerable to either a Utah State or Harvard loss.
Conference USA (2)
I still like UTEP to win at home against Memphis. A Memphis win and I believe UAB will be safe for the 2nd C-USA bid; a UTEP win and Memphis will get serious consideration. There is an outside chance all three make it, but this conference is more likely to only get the two bids (some “experts” still contend this is a 1-bid conference).
Ivy (1/2)
I firmly believe Harvard is in win or lose against Princeton. However, Princeton must win to get in, all bubble teams will be pulling for Harvard in this one, and a win should get them to the 12 line at worst, with a strong chance for the 11.
Note the other 18 conferences are safely single-bid conferences barring a Utah State loss.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Friday, March 11, 2011
The Anatomy of the Bracket Part II
By Nate Noy
Before I resume the discussion of the bracket, I wanted to make note of a conversation I had earlier today with FDH’s Rick Morris. We discussed how many at-large bids will go to the teams from the six BCS conference schools and how many from the remaining schools and the politics of these selections.
Last year there were 26 at-large bids awarded to the six BCS conferences and 8 to the other conferences. With the field expanding by three this year, Rick and I agree that the number of non-BCS bids HAS to remain at a minimum of 8. The politics of expanding the field and reducing the number of slots for the non-BCS schools are too great. Therefore, the next step in projecting the bracket is to establish what 8 teams I think will be awarded these at large bids.
In the MWC, we have two givens; either New Mexico, BYU, SDST, or UNLV will win the conference, and UNLV, SDST, and BYU are all locks for the tournament -- so 2 of the 8 can be chalked up here.
In the CAA George Mason is a lock, so we are at 3/8.
The A-10 gives us Temple and Xavier as locks, with Richmond and their win over Purdue as a strong possibility (plus since Xavier just lost to Dayton, there is a chance someone other than Temple wins the tournament.) I predict that Richmond makes the field as long as they win today and Xavier is a lock, so we are at 5/8.
The remaining three are a little more difficult. If Harvard loses the Ivy playoff against Princeton, then I think they are in (an RPI of 32 with W’s over bubble teams Colorado and Boston College). But for now, I am assuming Harvard wins and I don’t see Princeton as an at-large.
Also, if Utah State somehow loses the WAC tournament they would be in like last year, but for now I’m projecting they win as well.
That leaves us with three regular season conference champions/co-champions that should get in. The three I project are: UAB (30 RPI) Missouri State (40 RPI) and Saint Mary’s 47 RPI.
Teams that are still alive for consideration/auto-qualifying include: Memphis (33 RPI) and New Mexico (66 RPI), plus as aforementioned a number of teams other than Temple could still win the A-10. I also think UTEP pulls of the C-USA title on their home floor to claim the auto-bid.
That means that there are 29 at-large and the six auto spots remaining for the six BCS conferences. 14 of these 35 spots are represented in my top 16 teams from yesterday’s post. leaving us 21 at large spots.
In the ACC, Florida State is above the line with Boston College, Clemson, and Va Tech on the bubble.
In the Big Ten, I think Illinois is safe, with Michigan State and Michigan on the bubble.
The Big 12 gives us Texas A&M, Kansas State, and Missouri as safe teams, with Colorado on the bubble.
In the SEC we have Vanderbilt as safe with Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama on the bubble.
The Pac-10 has UCLA as safe, Washington is fairly safe but I’ll put them at the top of the bubble and USC is a long shot.
Finally the Big East has St. Johns, UConn, West Virginia, and Georgetown as very safe, Cincinnati and Villanova at the top of the bubble and Marquette on the bubble.
The sum total of “safe” teams is 11, leaving 10 spots. If we add UC, Nova, and UW, we are down to 7 spots for 10 legitimate teams. The next team in for me is Tennessee, dropping us to 6 spots. I also think the winner of Alabama/ Georgia gets in, dropping us to 5. The winner of Boston College / Clemson should be in, dropping us to 4. Of the final four spots I think Michigan State with their strong SOS gets in, so the final three spots come down to these teams with what they need to do:
^ Va Tech, likely needs to beat FSU today or they are gone
^ Michigan, likely needs to beat Illinois today or they are gone.
^ Marquette needs either Michigan or Va Tech to lose, or I think they could miss the tournament.
The losers of Ga/Bama and BC/Clemson will need help from a combination of factors to get in after today. Georgia has the best RPI of this group and may still survive with a loss.
Colorado is a true wild card in all of this as well, beat Kansas today and we have to drop someone out; lose horribly today and they are in the mix but possibly on the wrong side of the bubble. As of today, they have an RPI of 64; last year Minnesota made a run to the Big Ten title game and finished with an RPI of 62, grabbing the last at-large from the BCS schools.
If multiple things above happen (for example MSU gets drilled by Purdue tonight), then they could drop out as well.
So with a little more than 48 hours to go there are clearly some unknowns remaining.
I also think Harvard deserves consideration for a 12 or 11 seed, depending on who wins the remaining auto bids.
None of my top-16 teams from yesterday drop out of the top-16. And for now, we will leave the place holders where they are holding down seeds 13-16. Here is how I currently allocate the remaining seeds 5-12:
5 seeds: St. Johns; U Conn; Vandy; Texas A&M
6 seeds: WVU; Georgetown; Kansas State; Utah State
7 seeds: Old Dominion; Xavier; UNLV; Temple
8 seeds: Cincinnati; George Mason; Missouri; Florida State
9 seeds: Illinois; UCLA; Tennessee; Villanova
10 seeds: Butler; Washington; Gonzaga; Clemson
11 seeds: Alabama; Colorado; Marquette;
11 seed play-in Richmond v Michigan State
12 seeds: UTEP (Harvard); UAB; Saint Mary’s
12 seed play-in: and Missouri State v Georgia
Note I think Harvard will be a 12 if they win and UTEP will drop to Harvard’s spot on the 13-line.
So as of now I have Michigan, Va Tech, and Boston College missing the cut. But as I noted a lot can change in the next 48 hours. To make my official “last four out” list you can add USC to the list, but they are a real longshot.
I’ll take a final comparison look at my bubble teams after tonight’s games and present a close to final bracket projection tomorrow with all the projected match-ups.
UPDATE: Michigan just won, so they are in. Georgia lost, so for now I am taking them out, move Michigan to the 11 line, and drop Marquette to the play-in game. Also BC got drilled by Clemson, so they are likely headed to the NIT.
Before I resume the discussion of the bracket, I wanted to make note of a conversation I had earlier today with FDH’s Rick Morris. We discussed how many at-large bids will go to the teams from the six BCS conference schools and how many from the remaining schools and the politics of these selections.
Last year there were 26 at-large bids awarded to the six BCS conferences and 8 to the other conferences. With the field expanding by three this year, Rick and I agree that the number of non-BCS bids HAS to remain at a minimum of 8. The politics of expanding the field and reducing the number of slots for the non-BCS schools are too great. Therefore, the next step in projecting the bracket is to establish what 8 teams I think will be awarded these at large bids.
In the MWC, we have two givens; either New Mexico, BYU, SDST, or UNLV will win the conference, and UNLV, SDST, and BYU are all locks for the tournament -- so 2 of the 8 can be chalked up here.
In the CAA George Mason is a lock, so we are at 3/8.
The A-10 gives us Temple and Xavier as locks, with Richmond and their win over Purdue as a strong possibility (plus since Xavier just lost to Dayton, there is a chance someone other than Temple wins the tournament.) I predict that Richmond makes the field as long as they win today and Xavier is a lock, so we are at 5/8.
The remaining three are a little more difficult. If Harvard loses the Ivy playoff against Princeton, then I think they are in (an RPI of 32 with W’s over bubble teams Colorado and Boston College). But for now, I am assuming Harvard wins and I don’t see Princeton as an at-large.
Also, if Utah State somehow loses the WAC tournament they would be in like last year, but for now I’m projecting they win as well.
That leaves us with three regular season conference champions/co-champions that should get in. The three I project are: UAB (30 RPI) Missouri State (40 RPI) and Saint Mary’s 47 RPI.
Teams that are still alive for consideration/auto-qualifying include: Memphis (33 RPI) and New Mexico (66 RPI), plus as aforementioned a number of teams other than Temple could still win the A-10. I also think UTEP pulls of the C-USA title on their home floor to claim the auto-bid.
That means that there are 29 at-large and the six auto spots remaining for the six BCS conferences. 14 of these 35 spots are represented in my top 16 teams from yesterday’s post. leaving us 21 at large spots.
In the ACC, Florida State is above the line with Boston College, Clemson, and Va Tech on the bubble.
In the Big Ten, I think Illinois is safe, with Michigan State and Michigan on the bubble.
The Big 12 gives us Texas A&M, Kansas State, and Missouri as safe teams, with Colorado on the bubble.
In the SEC we have Vanderbilt as safe with Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama on the bubble.
The Pac-10 has UCLA as safe, Washington is fairly safe but I’ll put them at the top of the bubble and USC is a long shot.
Finally the Big East has St. Johns, UConn, West Virginia, and Georgetown as very safe, Cincinnati and Villanova at the top of the bubble and Marquette on the bubble.
The sum total of “safe” teams is 11, leaving 10 spots. If we add UC, Nova, and UW, we are down to 7 spots for 10 legitimate teams. The next team in for me is Tennessee, dropping us to 6 spots. I also think the winner of Alabama/ Georgia gets in, dropping us to 5. The winner of Boston College / Clemson should be in, dropping us to 4. Of the final four spots I think Michigan State with their strong SOS gets in, so the final three spots come down to these teams with what they need to do:
^ Va Tech, likely needs to beat FSU today or they are gone
^ Michigan, likely needs to beat Illinois today or they are gone.
^ Marquette needs either Michigan or Va Tech to lose, or I think they could miss the tournament.
The losers of Ga/Bama and BC/Clemson will need help from a combination of factors to get in after today. Georgia has the best RPI of this group and may still survive with a loss.
Colorado is a true wild card in all of this as well, beat Kansas today and we have to drop someone out; lose horribly today and they are in the mix but possibly on the wrong side of the bubble. As of today, they have an RPI of 64; last year Minnesota made a run to the Big Ten title game and finished with an RPI of 62, grabbing the last at-large from the BCS schools.
If multiple things above happen (for example MSU gets drilled by Purdue tonight), then they could drop out as well.
So with a little more than 48 hours to go there are clearly some unknowns remaining.
I also think Harvard deserves consideration for a 12 or 11 seed, depending on who wins the remaining auto bids.
None of my top-16 teams from yesterday drop out of the top-16. And for now, we will leave the place holders where they are holding down seeds 13-16. Here is how I currently allocate the remaining seeds 5-12:
5 seeds: St. Johns; U Conn; Vandy; Texas A&M
6 seeds: WVU; Georgetown; Kansas State; Utah State
7 seeds: Old Dominion; Xavier; UNLV; Temple
8 seeds: Cincinnati; George Mason; Missouri; Florida State
9 seeds: Illinois; UCLA; Tennessee; Villanova
10 seeds: Butler; Washington; Gonzaga; Clemson
11 seeds: Alabama; Colorado; Marquette;
11 seed play-in Richmond v Michigan State
12 seeds: UTEP (Harvard); UAB; Saint Mary’s
12 seed play-in: and Missouri State v Georgia
Note I think Harvard will be a 12 if they win and UTEP will drop to Harvard’s spot on the 13-line.
So as of now I have Michigan, Va Tech, and Boston College missing the cut. But as I noted a lot can change in the next 48 hours. To make my official “last four out” list you can add USC to the list, but they are a real longshot.
I’ll take a final comparison look at my bubble teams after tonight’s games and present a close to final bracket projection tomorrow with all the projected match-ups.
UPDATE: Michigan just won, so they are in. Georgia lost, so for now I am taking them out, move Michigan to the 11 line, and drop Marquette to the play-in game. Also BC got drilled by Clemson, so they are likely headed to the NIT.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
The Anatomy of the Bracket
By Nate Noy
Come Sunday night, fans everywhere will be dissecting and filling out their NCAA Tournament brackets. However, some of us can’t wait until then and have been projecting what the bracket will look like. Below is my projection of what the final bracket will entail, along with an explanation of the process I went through to create the bracket.
To project a bracket, a fan should try to “get inside the head of the Committee”. This can be done by looking back at previous brackets and uncovering trends in how the Committee puts together the bracket.
The first step in projecting a bracket is to establish who the #1 seeds are and assign them to the various regions. Next you need to project the #1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds and assign them to the various sub-regions. Keep in mind that the process the committee uses is to take the top team overall and assign it to the region closest to its home, then the next best team and assign it to the closest location not yet assigned, etc, etc.
The #1 overall seed will either be Ohio State or Kansas. As of today it is likely OSU, with Kansas a close 2nd. Both these teams WILL be #1 seeds regardless of what happens in the conference tournaments. The four regions this year are: Newark, San Antonio, Anaheim, and New Orleans.
As of today, I would place Pitt and Notre Dame as the other two #1 seeds. If Duke wins the ACC, it could replace Pitt or Notre Dame. It should be noted that as I write this Pitt just lost to U Conn, however last year Syracuse went 15-3 in the regular season in the Big East and lost in its first game of the conference tournament, yet retained the last #1 seed. (Which is exactly what Pitt did this year).
It should also be noted that the Committee, in theory, places the 1 and 2 seeds in serpentine order, with the best #2 seed being placed with the worst #1, however location still comes into play. Also, remember that the #1 overall matches up with the 4th #1 seed and the 2nd and 3rd #1 seeds match up.
Here is how I project it as of today:
#1 overall: Ohio State, Newark; next #1 Kansas, San Antonio, third #1 Notre Dame (assuming a Big East tourney win), New Orleans; last #1 Pitt, Anaheim. Newark v Anaheim and San Antonio v New Orleans.
The #2 seeds are Duke, San Diego State, Purdue, and Syracuse. I think the Committee will keep San Diego State close to home and place them in Anaheim. Duke to New Orleans, Purdue to San Antonio, and Syracuse to Newark. San Diego State could end up in Anaheim as the #3 seed, and placing but if the win the MWC they will likely get a #2, this breaks the serpentine rule, but SDST does have the #3 overall RPI as of today.
My #3 seeds are: Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Louisville. The #4 seeds are: BYU, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Arizona.
The sub-regions look like this: (Note a team cannot play on its home court or in the city which it is the “host” until the Final-4 i.e., Arizona cannot play in Tucson. Also note that BYU cannot play on a Sunday, so they must be placed in Thursday/ Saturday regions and sub-regions).
Ohio State: Cleveland
Kansas: Tulsa
Notre Dame: Chicago
Pitt: Cleveland
Duke: Charlotte
Purdue: Chicago
San Diego State: Tucson
Syracuse: DC
Texas: Tulsa
Florida: Tampa
UNC: Charlotte
Louisville: Tucson
BYU: Denver
Wisconsin: DC
Kentucky: Tampa
Arizona: Denver
In terms of the regional breakdown I project:
Newark
#1 Ohio State
#4 Arizona
#2 Syracuse
#3 Florida
Anaheim
#1 Pitt
#4 Wisconsin
#2 San Diego St
#3 Texas
San Antonio
#1 Kansas
#4 Kentucky
#2 Purdue
#3 UNC
New Orleans
#1 Notre Dame
#4 BYU
#2 Duke
#3 Louisville
Once you have your top 16 seeds established and placed in sub-regions, then it is time to tackle the remainder of the bracket.
Keep in mind that while the Committee does not want to place more than one team from any individual conference in the same group of 8 teams, they will certainly have to break that rule this year with the Big East getting 10 or 11 teams, but I think they will try to adhere to that rule for the first 8 Big East teams slotted, meaning that exactly four Big East teams will be seeded 1, 4 or 5 and exactly four will be seeded 2,3 or 6. So far from the Big East I have:
#1 Notre Dame; #1 Pitt; with zero #4 seeds (meaning I will seed two Big East teams #5) and #2 Syracuse, #3 Louisville, (meaning I will seed two Big East teams #6).
To seed the remainder of the field you should next establish the hierarchy by team of the multi-bid conferences. Keep in mind that the Committee relies heavily on RPI and Strength of Schedule (SOS). You should also establish a line within each conference, teams above the line are highly likely to make the tournament, teams below it are under consideration.
Before getting into the at-large selections, I generally establish the 13, 14, 15, and 16 seeds at this point. To accomplish this you take the bottom 18 automatic qualifiers and rank them 1-18 to establish their seeds (yes a weak team could take an auto-bid from a major conference and end up on the 13 line like Georgia did a few years ago, but for now we assume that will not happen.)
The best way to rank these 18 teams is by RPI, which is the most important factor at the bottom of the bracket for the Committee. I usually start from the bottom, with the team ranked 15 playing 18 in the play-in round and the 16 v 17. Below are the bottom 18 teams with applicable RPI and my placeholder seeds, note that seven of these teams still have to complete conference tournaments and could be replaced by weaker teams, which could impact the bottom seeds up or down by a line:
Note for now these are placeholders, when I make my final bracket I compare the teams up or down a line for things like quality wins and SOS, but the placeholder for today looks like this:
RPI Team Seed
34 Harvard 13
52 Oakland 13
53 Belmont 13
77 Long Island 13
78 Morehead State 14
81 Bucknell 14
84 Indiana State 14
85 Kent State 14
89 Long Beach State 15
95 St Peters 15
99 Northern Colorado 15
110 Wofford 15
134 Boston U 16
146 UNC Asheville 16
156 McNeese State PI
166 Hampton PI
176 Texas Southern PI
192 Ark LR PI
I will complete the process with you tomorrow and make any necessary adjustments to my 1-4 seeds based on what happens tonight, giving you a projected look at the entire 68-team field.
Come Sunday night, fans everywhere will be dissecting and filling out their NCAA Tournament brackets. However, some of us can’t wait until then and have been projecting what the bracket will look like. Below is my projection of what the final bracket will entail, along with an explanation of the process I went through to create the bracket.
To project a bracket, a fan should try to “get inside the head of the Committee”. This can be done by looking back at previous brackets and uncovering trends in how the Committee puts together the bracket.
The first step in projecting a bracket is to establish who the #1 seeds are and assign them to the various regions. Next you need to project the #1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds and assign them to the various sub-regions. Keep in mind that the process the committee uses is to take the top team overall and assign it to the region closest to its home, then the next best team and assign it to the closest location not yet assigned, etc, etc.
The #1 overall seed will either be Ohio State or Kansas. As of today it is likely OSU, with Kansas a close 2nd. Both these teams WILL be #1 seeds regardless of what happens in the conference tournaments. The four regions this year are: Newark, San Antonio, Anaheim, and New Orleans.
As of today, I would place Pitt and Notre Dame as the other two #1 seeds. If Duke wins the ACC, it could replace Pitt or Notre Dame. It should be noted that as I write this Pitt just lost to U Conn, however last year Syracuse went 15-3 in the regular season in the Big East and lost in its first game of the conference tournament, yet retained the last #1 seed. (Which is exactly what Pitt did this year).
It should also be noted that the Committee, in theory, places the 1 and 2 seeds in serpentine order, with the best #2 seed being placed with the worst #1, however location still comes into play. Also, remember that the #1 overall matches up with the 4th #1 seed and the 2nd and 3rd #1 seeds match up.
Here is how I project it as of today:
#1 overall: Ohio State, Newark; next #1 Kansas, San Antonio, third #1 Notre Dame (assuming a Big East tourney win), New Orleans; last #1 Pitt, Anaheim. Newark v Anaheim and San Antonio v New Orleans.
The #2 seeds are Duke, San Diego State, Purdue, and Syracuse. I think the Committee will keep San Diego State close to home and place them in Anaheim. Duke to New Orleans, Purdue to San Antonio, and Syracuse to Newark. San Diego State could end up in Anaheim as the #3 seed, and placing but if the win the MWC they will likely get a #2, this breaks the serpentine rule, but SDST does have the #3 overall RPI as of today.
My #3 seeds are: Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Louisville. The #4 seeds are: BYU, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Arizona.
The sub-regions look like this: (Note a team cannot play on its home court or in the city which it is the “host” until the Final-4 i.e., Arizona cannot play in Tucson. Also note that BYU cannot play on a Sunday, so they must be placed in Thursday/ Saturday regions and sub-regions).
Ohio State: Cleveland
Kansas: Tulsa
Notre Dame: Chicago
Pitt: Cleveland
Duke: Charlotte
Purdue: Chicago
San Diego State: Tucson
Syracuse: DC
Texas: Tulsa
Florida: Tampa
UNC: Charlotte
Louisville: Tucson
BYU: Denver
Wisconsin: DC
Kentucky: Tampa
Arizona: Denver
In terms of the regional breakdown I project:
Newark
#1 Ohio State
#4 Arizona
#2 Syracuse
#3 Florida
Anaheim
#1 Pitt
#4 Wisconsin
#2 San Diego St
#3 Texas
San Antonio
#1 Kansas
#4 Kentucky
#2 Purdue
#3 UNC
New Orleans
#1 Notre Dame
#4 BYU
#2 Duke
#3 Louisville
Once you have your top 16 seeds established and placed in sub-regions, then it is time to tackle the remainder of the bracket.
Keep in mind that while the Committee does not want to place more than one team from any individual conference in the same group of 8 teams, they will certainly have to break that rule this year with the Big East getting 10 or 11 teams, but I think they will try to adhere to that rule for the first 8 Big East teams slotted, meaning that exactly four Big East teams will be seeded 1, 4 or 5 and exactly four will be seeded 2,3 or 6. So far from the Big East I have:
#1 Notre Dame; #1 Pitt; with zero #4 seeds (meaning I will seed two Big East teams #5) and #2 Syracuse, #3 Louisville, (meaning I will seed two Big East teams #6).
To seed the remainder of the field you should next establish the hierarchy by team of the multi-bid conferences. Keep in mind that the Committee relies heavily on RPI and Strength of Schedule (SOS). You should also establish a line within each conference, teams above the line are highly likely to make the tournament, teams below it are under consideration.
Before getting into the at-large selections, I generally establish the 13, 14, 15, and 16 seeds at this point. To accomplish this you take the bottom 18 automatic qualifiers and rank them 1-18 to establish their seeds (yes a weak team could take an auto-bid from a major conference and end up on the 13 line like Georgia did a few years ago, but for now we assume that will not happen.)
The best way to rank these 18 teams is by RPI, which is the most important factor at the bottom of the bracket for the Committee. I usually start from the bottom, with the team ranked 15 playing 18 in the play-in round and the 16 v 17. Below are the bottom 18 teams with applicable RPI and my placeholder seeds, note that seven of these teams still have to complete conference tournaments and could be replaced by weaker teams, which could impact the bottom seeds up or down by a line:
Note for now these are placeholders, when I make my final bracket I compare the teams up or down a line for things like quality wins and SOS, but the placeholder for today looks like this:
RPI Team Seed
34 Harvard 13
52 Oakland 13
53 Belmont 13
77 Long Island 13
78 Morehead State 14
81 Bucknell 14
84 Indiana State 14
85 Kent State 14
89 Long Beach State 15
95 St Peters 15
99 Northern Colorado 15
110 Wofford 15
134 Boston U 16
146 UNC Asheville 16
156 McNeese State PI
166 Hampton PI
176 Texas Southern PI
192 Ark LR PI
I will complete the process with you tomorrow and make any necessary adjustments to my 1-4 seeds based on what happens tonight, giving you a projected look at the entire 68-team field.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
FDH Lounge #138: March 8, 2011
By Rick Morris
THE FDH LOUNGE (Tuesdays, 7-10 PM EST on SportsTalkNetwork.com) is absolutely loaded with variety this week.
After The Opening Statements of The FDH Lounge Dignitaries and This Week in The FDH Lounge, we take a look at the NBA playoff stretch run, including the Miami collapse, the Laker resurgence and Chicago’s first legitimate contending team since Jordan.
From there, we bring on a heck of a one-two-three punch to talk some boxing: our good pal Rich Mancuso from The 21st Century Media Alliance and Keep It In The Ring, his good friend, the legendary writer/historian Bert Randolph Sugar and top TV analyst/trainer Teddy Atlas. Our program marks the 40-year anniversary of The Fight of the Century, Ali-Frazier I, and we’ll contrast that epic to the sad state of today’s heavyweight division – when the Wladimir Klitschko-David Haye “big unification match” passes for significance. Additionally, we’ll confront boxing’s big challenges, the rise of MMA and the splintering between governing bodies and TV networks that puts a strain on the signing of top matchups.
Hour Two brings us one of the most accomplished Major League pitching coaches of the last quarter-century, the man most closely associated with the development of the Zito-Mulder-Hudson “Big Three” around the turn of the century, Rick Peterson. He’s worked with those studs, Yovani Gallardo, Johan Santana and other notables and now he’s in “private practice” with 3P Sports, an organization dedicated to developing young pitching prospects. We’ll talk about the art of pitching, the greats he’s seen up close, the “Year of the Pitcher,” his organization’s ongoing work and other such matters with him. After that, FDH college sports expert Nate Noy comes on to talk about the projected NCAA hoops bracket he just unveiled and his Championship Week observations that will help you rake in the loot when you go to fill out your own brackets next week.
In Hour Three, cue up the “Odd Couple” music as one of our favorite combos returns to the show: our go-to guy on TV and technology, Simon Applebaum of the Tomorrow Will Be Televised podcast and blog and Lloyd Carroll of the Queens Chronicle and countless other New York publications. Who better than these two to dissect the insanity of the current Charlie Sheen media circus?
Then, THE FANTASY DRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER closes out the show with our preview of FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2011, which will be uploaded to the FDH family of websites this Friday, March 11. Several features were just serialized on the FDH fantasy blog and we’ll take an overview of many categories: sleepers, overvalued, undervalued, top prospects for this year, players worth way more in single-league formats and players with a wide range of opinion in the fantasy baseball media this year.
As always, we urge you to watch the show live (or listen if you’re on dial-up), but if you can’t catch this as it’s happening, you can always catch the FDH archives 24-7 right here or catch us on iTunes. Also, you can sample THE FDH LOUNGE VAULT, a compilation of our best interviews and roundtables, now every weeknight from 6-7 PM, also on SportsTalkNetwork.com.
Monday, March 7, 2011
NCAA hoops tourney bracket projections
By Nate Noy (posted by Rick Morris)
NOTES: Automatic qualifiers are in all caps. Present RPI numbers are in parentheses. Projections are not made for any specific geographic locations.
BRACKET 1
1 OHIO STATE (2)
16/PL MCNEESE STATE (163)
16/PL HAMPTON (166)
8 Cincinnati (32)
9 Tennessee (36)
4 ARIZONA (16)
13 BELMONT (51)
5 St. John’s (22)
12 Clemson (57)
3 FLORIDA (10)
14 LONG ISLAND (80)
6 Texas A&M (30)
11 Marquette (68)
7 UTAH STATE (17)
10 Boston College (45)
2 Syracuse (18)
15 NORTHERN COLORADO (113)
BRACKET 2
1 KANSAS (1)
16/PL NORTH TEXAS (137)
16/PL TEXAS SOUTHERN (175)
8 George Mason (27)
9 Illinois (40)
4 Brigham Young (4)
13 ST MARY’S (44)
5 West Virginia (15)
12/PL Richmond (55)
12/PL Virginia Tech (64)
3 Louisville (20)
14 INDIANA STATE (85)
6 XAVIER (21)
11 Washington (47)
7 OLD DOMINION (24)
10 UAB (28)
2 Purdue (8)
15 ST. PETERS (101)
BRACKET 3
1 PITTSBURGH (7)
16 NC-ASHVILLE (149)
8 Missouri (33)
9 UCLA (non-automatic qualifier) (34)
4 Wisconsin (13)
13 CHARLESTON (67)
5 Vanderbilt (26)
12 HARVARD (35)
3 Texas (14)
14 BUCKNELL (82)
6 Georgetown (11)
11 Alabama (37)
7 UNLV (non-automatic qualifier) (25)
10 Michigan State (48)
2 North Carolina (6)
15 LONG BEACH STATE (90)
BRACKET 4
1 Notre Dame (9)
16 BOSTON U (134)
8 Temple (29)
9 Florida State (46)
4 Kentucky (12)
13 OAKLAND (61)
5 Kansas State (19)
12/PL Michigan (56)
12/PL Missouri State (42)
3 SAN DIEGO STATE (3)
14 MOREHEAD STATE (77)
6 UConn (23)
11 BUTLER (79)
7 Villanova (31)
10 Georgia (39)
2 DUKE (5)
15 KENT STATE (87)
FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume IV, Issue IX
By Rick Morris
For the most part, we keep our fantasy content on our fantasy website and fantasy blog and keep this site for content on all subjects. It allows our readers to find specific content more easily that way. However, it has come to our attention that because our new fantasy sports newsletter is published on the older Blogger platform that our readers may be limited in their ability to subscribe to it. There does not appear to be a way to have content on the FantasyDrafthelp.com blog forwarded to an aggregate news reader -- however, we know that we have that ability here. So we will link to that newsletter each week right here when it is published. Here is this week’s newsletter.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
NBA power rankings for start of March
By Rick Morris
NOTE: Rankings from mid-February in parentheses.
TOP TIER
1 San Antonio (1)
SECOND TIER
2 Dallas (11)
3 Boston (2)
4 Los Angeles Lakers (3)
5 Chicago (4)
6 Miami (5)
THIRD TIER
7 Orlando (7)
8 Oklahoma City (8)
9 Atlanta (6)
10 Denver (12)
11 Portland (13)
12 New Orleans (10)
13 Memphis (17)
14 Phoenix (15)
15 Houston (16)
16 Utah (9)
17 Philadelphia (22)
18 New York (14)
FOURTH TIER
19 Golden State (18)
20 Indiana (21)
21 Charlotte (19)
FIFTH TIER
22 Los Angeles Clippers (20)
23 Milwaukee (23)
24 Detroit (24)
SIXTH TIER
25 New Jersey (27)
26 Toronto (25)
27 Washington (26)
28 Sacramento (29)
29 Minnesota (28)
SEVENTH TIER
30 Cleveland (30)
BIGGEST RISERS: Dallas (9 spots), Philadelphia (5 spots), Memphis (4 spots)
BIGGEST FALLERS: Utah (7 spots), New York (4 spots), Atlanta (3 spots)
RANKINGS BY DIVISION – 1 POINT PER RANKING SPOT FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL TEAM, LOWEST SCORE IS BEST
1 Southwest (43)
2 Southeast (70)
3 Northwest (74)
4 Pacific (87)
5 Atlantic (89)
6 Central (102)
RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE
1 West (207)
2 East (261)
NHL power rankings for start of March
By Rick Morris
NOTE: Rankings from mid-February are in parentheses.
TOP TIER
1 Vancouver (1)
SECOND TIER
2 Detroit (4)
3 Philadelphia (2)
4 Boston (6)
5 San Jose (12)
6 Pittsburgh (5)
7 Tampa Bay (3)
8 Chicago (17)
9 Washington (8)
10 Montreal (10)
11 Phoenix (11)
12 Dallas (7)
13 Calgary (16)
14 Los Angeles (15)
15 Nashville (9)
16 Anaheim (13)
17 Minnesota (14)
18 New York Rangers (18)
19 Buffalo (22)
20 Carolina (20)
21 Columbus (21)
22 Toronto (26)
23 St. Louis (23)
24 Atlanta (19)
THIRD TIER
25 New Jersey (27)
26 Florida (25)
27 Colorado (24)
28 New York Islanders (28)
FOURTH TIER
29 Edmonton (30)
30 Ottawa (29)
BIGGEST RISERS: Chicago (9 spots), San Jose (7 spots), Toronto (4 spots), Buffalo and Calgary (3 spots)
BIGGEST FALLERS: Nashville (6 spots), Atlanta and Dallas (5 spots), Tampa Bay (4 spots), Anaheim, Colorado and Minnesota (3 spots)
RANKINGS BY DIVISION – 1 POINT PER RANKING SPOT FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL TEAM, LOWEST SCORE IS BEST
1 Pacific (58)
2 Central (69)
3 Atlantic (80)
4 Northeast (85)
5 Southeast (86)
6 Northwest (87)
RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE
1 West 214
2 East 251
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
FDH Lounge #137: March 1, 2011
By Rick Morris
THE FDH LOUNGE (Tuesdays, 7-10 PM EST on SportsTalkNetwork.com) continues this week to redefine the word “variety” as it relates to talk show conversations.
After The Opening Statements of The FDH Lounge Dignitaries and This Week in The FDH Lounge, we go right to TMZ News Manager Mike Walters, who just conducted an epic 42-minute interview with Charlie Sheen. The Sheen Media Tour is the talk of America and now our Lounge viewers can hear what it is like to be face-to-face with the most infamous man alive. From there, we recap the twists and turns of last week’s NBA trading deadline and examine how the top teams fared for the stretch run and how others got set up for the future.
At the top of Hour Two, we bring in FDH Lounge Dignitary and fellow STN show host Steve Kallas for a fun look at the biggest sports headlines of the moment.
Next up, we’ve got a real treat: a pro wrestler who was a key part of the “Golden Age of Tag Teams,” who was also a part of one of the most legendary off-camera brouhahas of all time and who is one of the few wrestlers ever to gain a clean pinfall on Hulk Hogan. Of course, it’s Jacques Rougeau, known at various times also as The Mountie, a Quebecer or an Amazing French Canadian. We’ll talk to him about his great career, his pro wrestling school, his very wonderful advocacy of the suicide prevention group SOS Suicide Jeunesse, and his interesting business career.
We return to hoops at the top of the third hour with a preview of Championship Week in the NCAA and a look at how the tournament is stacking up with a shade under two weeks to Selection Sunday. Then, THE FANTASY DRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER closes out the show with our look at the best fantasy baseball players of 2010 – our exclusive rankings that show who performed the best on the Ultimate Quantitative Baseline for last season.
As always, we urge you to watch the show live (or listen if you’re on dial-up), but if you can’t catch this as it’s happening, you can always catch the FDH archives 24-7 right here or catch us on iTunes. Also, you can sample THE FDH LOUNGE VAULT, a compilation of our best interviews and roundtables, now every weeknight from 6-7 PM, also on SportsTalkNetwork.com.
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