Sunday, August 31, 2008

2008 NFL predictions Version II

By Rick Morris

X-New England 12-4
Y-NY Jets 9-7
Buffalo 7-9
Miami 6-10

X-Pittsburgh 10-6
Cleveland 8-8
Baltimore 6-10
Cincinnati 6-10

X-Indianapolis 11-5
Y-Jacksonville 10-6
Tennessee 8-8
Houston 7-9

X-San Diego 11-5
Denver 8-8
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 4-12

X-Dallas 12-4
Y-NY Giants 9-7
Philadelphia 9-7
Washington 8-8

X-Green Bay 10-6
Minnesota 8-8
Chicago 5-11
Detroit 4-12

X-New Orleans 11-5
Y-Carolina 9-7
Tampa Bay 8-8
Atlanta 5-11

X-Arizona 9-7
Seattle 9-7
St. Louis 7-9
San Francisco 4-12

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Green Bay over Carolina
NY Giants over Arizona
San Diego over New York Jets

New England over Jacksonville
Indianapolis over San Diego
Dallas over NY Giants
New Orleans over Green Bay

New Orleans over Dallas
Indianapolis over New England

Indianapolis over New Orleans

NFC East: 6 games over .500
AFC South: 4 games over .500
AFC East: 2 games over .500
NFC South: 1 game over .500
AFC North: 2 games under .500
NFC West: 3 games under .500
AFC West: 3 games under .500
NFC North: 5 games under .500

Saturday, August 30, 2008

College football season predictions

By Rick Morris

In a terrific example of “repurposing” content across the FDH media family, we created this college football team fantasy game in which owners select NCAA football teams and accrue points based on how they do in the polls and end up at the conclusion of the season. As such, our draft board also doubles as a prediction about how teams will finish in the final polls.

So here is our projected Top 25 at the end of the season:

1. Ohio State

2. Missouri

3. Georgia

4. West Virginia

5. USC

6. Florida

7. Oklahoma

8. Texas

9. LSU

10. Clemson

11. BYU

12. Virginia Tech

13. Illinois

14. Wisconsin

15. Kansas

16. Auburn

17. Wake Forest

18. Arizona State

19. Texas Tech

20. Oregon

21. Tennessee

22. South Florida

23. Fresno State

24. Boise State

25. Cincinnati

And here are the projected BCS games and outcomes, along with the 2008 Heisman Trophy winner:

BCS Title Game

Ohio State over Missouri

Rose Bowl

USC over Florida

Fiesta Bowl

West Virginia over BYU

Sugar Bowl

Georgia over Oklahoma

Orange Bowl

Clemson over Illinois

Heisman Trophy

Chris Wells

NOTES: Notwithstanding the personal feelings of many of us (Ohioans) in the FDH media family, the pick for national champion is completely objective and based mostly on schedule (indeed, I'm actually an alum of Ohio University and along with fellow FDH Lounge Dignitary Chris Galloway I will be rooting for the old alma mater in the Horseshoe next Saturday!). If Ohio State can escape USC with a win on September 13 (which we believe they can, based on their superlative senior-based defense and USC’s recent chaos due to various medical issues), they have by far the softest remaining schedule of the big contenders (notwithstanding some road mines in the form of Illinois and Wisconsin). Remember, we’re not ranking the best teams in our estimation; we’re ranking how they are likely to be slotted at the very end. Missouri’s got a relatively soft run themselves in the Big 12 North, though they’ll have a real lion waiting in Texas or (more likely) Oklahoma in the conference title game. We foresee the SEC run of national titles ending at two due to the fact that the conference will be a greater meat grinder this year than perhaps ever before. No team will emerge completely unscathed, and indeed, the eventual conference champion may have two losses just like LSU did last year and 99 times out of 100 that’s not going to get you in the national championship game. If indeed the BCS matchups play out as we anticipate above, there will be cries from many in the media that the Rose Bowl would be the “real national title game,” as the selection committee in Pasadena would likely deviate from their (preferred) Pac 10-Big 10 matchup to take a coveted Florida Gator team rather than an Ilini team that the Trojans ran off the field last January. We do see another mid-major crashing the party this year in the form of BYU, who should have their best team in years.

Palin VP pick great for McCain and the country

By Rick Morris

When evaluating John McCain's shocking selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to run as his vice presidential nominee, it's difficult to separate the enthusiasm I feel as an American from the realities I see as an analyst. But I will try.

In the many conversations I have had with FDH Lounge Dignitaries in the past 24 hours since news got out, I have noted that this is the kind of development I don't disappoint myself by even getting my hopes up for anymore (and speaking of our Dignitaries, props to Chris Galloway for calling her to my attention first on our debut program back in January 2007). Having grown up under Ronald Reagan, I was naive enough to think that the Republican Party could keep things going after he moved on from the scene. But a toxic combination of greed and stupidity over the past two decades proved sadly that he really had not fundamentally transformed what had been a soulless institution controlled by cynical Rockefeller Republicans before he came along. The contrived efforts to deny the people's choice, Pat Buchanan, the 1996 presidential nomination and the complete failure of Republican one-party government this decade (with four years of a bloody but no-urgency status quo in Iraq before 2007 and a pork-barrel explosion that Republicans were supposedly sworn to oppose) left me as somebody who really only had a lot of respect for about a half-dozen governors and members of Congress. Sarah Palin is on that list, and indeed, last October in this very space, I hailed her and another member of that list (Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal) as future presidential material.

"In Alaska, Sarah Palin kicked the crooked Old Boys Club right in the gonads en route to seizing the mantle of America’s best governor. The rancid mix of pork and crony capitalism that RINOs in the country’s northernmost state have foisted on the public for decades crumbled at the feet of a real reformer from within their own party. While insiders decried her unwillingness to turn her back on wrongdoing within her own party, she has been rewarded with insanely high poll ratings and has become the first elected official from Alaska to be mentioned as a viable future candidate for national office. If the Republicans end up looking for a way to take down a President Hillary in 2012 by eviscerating her advantage among women voters without having to compromise any principles whatsoever, we could see a Palin presidency that rallies the American people by dumping the deadwood of both political parties right in the Potomac."

Most members of the political class are just taking up space, cynically plotting moves that will help them to move up the ladder. Empty suit Mitt Romney, the "Say Anything" weasel, is the epitome of this animal. While I will not deny that Palin surely has ambition -- you couldn't experience an unprecedented rise, at an early age no less, from America's furthest frontier to the national ticket -- she's in public life for the right reasons. She got her job by beating one of the country's most crooked and ruthless party machines in a cage fight, something nobody had ever pulled off before. As a reformer, she reinforces John McCain's message in a completely tangible way. It's easy to imagine this team going to battle to defeat wasteful government spending and making the government do business in a revolutionary and more efficient manner. Republicans have talked about doing this for decades, and frankly, even the sainted Gipper himself didn't live up to his vaunted statements on the subject. The McCain/Palin team has the message of busting up the way the good old boys do business rooted in their very DNA and that is refreshing and promising.

This move by McCain was so bold and mind-blowing that I am still in shock. I literally cannot imagine any other politician having the calzones to do something like this. Professional politicians are trained always to make the safe move, no matter what. Romney or any of the other usual suspects on the short list would have been the pick for 99% of other politicians, but I give McCain credit for realizing the full extent of what he is up against this year. The successful Democratic convention evidently disabused McCain of any notion that he is neck-and-neck with Barack Obama. I knew that, wittingly or otherwise, the way that the media was setting bar so low in terms of the Clintons and Democratic unity that the week would end up satisfying most skeptics. Did anyone really think that Bill and Hillary would be stupid enough to leave any major questions hanging about how much they say they support Obama?

The somewhat insipid "celebrity" line of attack against Obama has worked better than I thought it would so far, but I have worried that the McCain people were drinking their own Kool-Aid in terms of how long that effect would last. I live squarely in the midst of swing voters in one of the biggest swing states; people are so concerned about a multitude of issues this time relative to most other recent elections -- more so even than 2004, which was somewhat similar to this one in terms of foreign policy and economic concerns. Obama can be beat with a negative campaign, but it's got to be focused on issues, not personalities, because Reagan Democrats will only be angered by a vapid non-issue campaign.

The almost-complete takeover of the McCain campaign by shallow refugees from the Bush team shaped the substance-free ad campaign of this summer. Seemingly, they were going to sell McCain on the deluded notion that he had legitimately evened up this race and could make a "safe pick" like slick Willard Romney. Although I have so many Republican friends who have cursed this side of him, Thank God right now for McCain's maverick streak, because it led him to the boom-or-bust gamble that was in reality his only chance to complete the comeback and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in a Republican year that actually looks even worse than the post-Watergate 1976. McCain's not my cup of tea, I repeatedly and strongly endorsed Fred Thompson in this space, but what his haters in the GOP fail to realize is that -- notwithstanding his moderate image -- he deviates as much from the party line to the right as he does to the left. In Sarah Palin, he's now solidified an image of a team that will come in swinging 2 by 4s from the right. I could not be happier about that. Plus, she reinforces his message about throwing off the yoke of the environmental extremists who are keeping us from recovering all of our energy needs at home. That's huge in a year like this.

Additionally, Palin has a refreshing persona that is so far removed from that of the plastic career politician. Like others in her family, she hunts, fishes and lives a true frontier lifestyle. She lived the pro-life belief system by not aborting her son Trigg with Down's Syndrome and speaking publicly about joyously embracing God's Will with such a child. Her husband still is a true blue-collar guy in every respect -- and when is the last time anyone on a national ticket had a spouse that could say that? For anybody wanting to take all of her positives about not being a lifelong career politician and spin them into negatives, I would ask how people could possibly advocate changing our country but trusting only career politicians to do that? This recent column I wrote about the evils of the political class in both parties seems more relevant than ever. The fact that Democrats are bashing her for his alleged lack of experience (when she has executive experience in the public and private sectors that Obama and Biden lack completely) is laughable. I know that she can't say anything quite this blunt, but she should have a rejoinder a bit more politically correct than this one ready as a counterattack: "No political party that nominates for president a man with Barack Obama's resume should accuse us of tokenism for nominating me for vice president!"

As I have noted, though, the pick has some danger because she is a national unknown and is vulnerable to being negatively defined by the opposition. Just ask Dan Quayle about first impressions. And because she, as a God-fearing, self-made woman, represents such a threat to man-hating professional agitators in the interest groups that control the other major political party, she is already under fierce personal attack. No denunciation will be thought too low or scummy; to prove this, check out the fact that the immature Koskids are already attacking her as an unfeeling mother for campaigning despite her infant son's disability. The worst sewage in the American political system will be thrown at her, so good counter-attacks will prove necessary. Democrat leaders from coast to coast are soiling their drawers at the notion that she will peel away just enough disaffected Hillary voters to put McCain over the top. Based on her bravura performance yesterday, I expect that her convention speech will be supremely well-regarded and I actually expect her to hand smug old Joe Biden his lunch in the vice-presidential debate.

Speaking of Biden, I can objectively state that his pick had pluses and minuses for Obama. Notwithstanding the nonsensical blather about how Biden is really an agent of change ... having served in the Senate since 1973 (overlapping Hubert Humphrey among others), voted the party line lazily and robotically since then ... yeah, I don't think that's going to fire up the "Free Mumia" college kids that make up Obama's base. But, realistically, Obama probably didn't lose a lot of idealists with that pick and he definitely made himself more palatable to voters who previously considered him a crazy radical. I have said myself that while I oppose Obama strenuously, his recent cynical moves to the middle have convinced me that we would survive his presidency just as we somehow did Bill Clinton's. But Biden's condescending schtick is going to prove an awful match in the debates for the smooth, confident and, dare I say, telegenic, Palin. When they debate, look for Biden's stuttering and stammering to turn off as many voters as his Mr. Ed choppers will.

So again, the Palin pick does not lock up anything for McCain, but it has a high upside and it certainly keeps him in the game. His decision to snub the advice of the business-as-usual robots around him and make the bold, daring pick was great for his campaign and also for a party that now has a future star and leader to rally around enthusiastically. For once, it's actually a positive that the Republicans are an unimaginative royalist party that automatically elevates whoever is next in line to the presidential nomination, because she now is first in line whenever the McCain era of control ends -- be it in 2009 or later. Anybody attacking her now as being a cynical, worthless pick for McCain is proving that they are:

A) an ignoramus who knows nothing about her life story and political history
B) a cynical hack peddling garbage for Obama who doesn't care about the truth
or more likely
C) both

Thursday, August 28, 2008

The Bill Simmons Report...Appropriately Named

by Jason Jones

The B.S. (Bill Simmons) Report with guest Matthew Berry

For those who are not familiar with Bill Simmons, in my humble opinion, he is the Pat O’Brien of the ESPN mediums of information. He is not even in the stratosphere with Dan Patrick, Keith Olbermann, or even John Anderson or Scott Van Pelt. He is an entertainment/shock-value side show. If he were to have a television show on the ESPN network, it would be fighting for time with former shows like Quite Frankly (with Stephen A. Smith) and Playmakers. Clearly, I am not a fan of Bill Simmons, in my opinion ESPN should not have a “National Enquirer” division. This is evident in the first few minutes of the edition of his podcast I plan on dissecting. When I was growing up, my parents told me that inevitably there would be something (i.e. fashion trend, music, entertainment, or related fads) that I would be ashamed to be a part of. It's just the way the world works. For my mother, it was bell-bottom pants. For me it was Cross Colours (that’s a topic for an entirely different post). I am proud to say that I never supported boy bands, Aaron Spelling television programming, emo music, using metro-sexual “product” or wearing macramé. Clearly Simmons and Berry didn’t get the memo on one of these. As I have only heard the first 5 minutes of this podcast, I look forward to hearing and commenting on the remainder of this podcast in real time, a sort of live blog.

Bill Simmons in red

Matthew Berry in blue

My comments in black bold

00:48-Bill indicates that “for all of you interested in football talk” you’ll have to wait for about 8 minutes while he and Matthew Berry get into some “Beverly Hills 90210 and Hollywood talk”. ARE YOU KIDDING ME!!!! This is ESPN, not Access Hollywood. If we gave a $%&! About the abomination that is Beverly Hills 90210, we wouldn’t be on this particular website. Besides, the people who were in Beverly Hills 90210 don’t care about Beverly Hills 90210!

01:13-Simmons: “Ladies and Gentleman the most ubiquitous employee for ESPN, Mr. Matthew Berry”. Ubiquitous?? Really, sure Berry is everywhere…distorting and polluting the average sports fan with half a$$ed and irresponsible commentary.

02:26-Simmons: “I have the greatest name for a production company in Hollywood, of the legendary Tiffany Amber Thiessen…who I think we both love. Her production company is called, T.A.T. Productions. No, better yet, its called Tit for Tat Productions” Berry: “Every time I think I’ve run out of reasons to love Tiffany Amber Thiessen, somehow I find a little more of a sliver of my heart I can give her”. Wow! I think my brain is hemorrhaging. What is wrong with this picture? Two middle-aged men are crushing on some D rate celebrities like a couple of ten year old boys who are looking for material to aid in the discovery of how their twig and berries work. Oh, and legendary…LEGENDARY TIFFANY AMBER THIESSEN? These tools should have their man cards revoked.

03:04-Simmons: “The final 90210 episode was on television last week, and of course I watched it. Two things. 1) How is some employee of the network not fixing this problem at an editing point before the file is uploaded? 2) I love television and I clearly watch too much of it. I could not begin to tell you where you could even find an episode of this crap. Maybe you’d have to start at Lifetime, Oxygen, WE, or Logo, I must not be watching the right channels.

03:14-I can’t believe this. I will save you the crap that ensues. In a nutshell…they summarize the final episode (Berry actually corrects Simmons on a mispronunciation of one of the lower tier character names). If I continue to comment on the Beverly Hills 90210, your eyes might start to bleed.

05:36-Ok, maybe we’re getting into the fantasy football talk. Simmons starts off by mentioning that by this time in the season everyone has read the same stuff and go into each draft looking for the same sleepers. Well, if you are listening to people like Matthew Berry, he is suggesting players that are not sleepers at all. Fantasy sports are funny that way. The only time there is a real sleeper is if the player is unproven and you take a flier on him (which Berry would never recommend, too risky even in the last round) or the less popular one, you select a guy that everyone else believes is done career wise/player coming off of a terrible season. Either way, I find it hard to believe that Berry has ever mentioned a legitimate sleeper.

06:01-Berry, “I used to read everybody. I was really up on the whole fantasy industry, I haven’t read another fantasy article in over two and a half years.” I assure you of one thing…MATTHEW BERRY HAS NEVER UTTERED TRUER WORDS!!!!!!!!!!!! He may have been a legitimate fantasy analyst at one point. But ever since signing on with ESPN, he has stopped putting in the work. As we’ve said here before, Berry has the largest megaphone in the industry and he continues to spew lazy and irresponsible content. This is our motivation. To show how poor his advice really is.

06:32-Simmons: “You’re on record as saying that you now are more interested in your predictions than you are of your team’s success. Subconsciously, you are throwing out some crazy predictions just hoping they’ll come true. I like finding guys like Marvin Harrison. He finally sucked last year, I like guys like that. The guy that we’ve all had previously and who’s stock has fallen for no reason. We know he’s going to have one last real good year before he falls off. Are there any guys like that? Berry: "I like Torry Holt ”

Ok, I can’t wait to hear this one. Torry Holt has been the most consistent WR in fantasy football for about eight years; including last year. Everyone is entitled to an off year, and Holt hasn't had one.

11:42-Berry: “You look at what he actually did, 93 receptions, 1200 total yards and 7 touchdowns. That’s pretty good for a guy who was quote un quote terrible. If you tell me he catches 90 balls, I like my chances.” This is one of those rare comments by Berry that makes sense.” I was worried he would make a ridiculous claim like, “Torry Holt will be a sub-20 fantasy WR". The only problem is, the question was, “Who is going to have that one final great year?” Torry Holt has more than one year left. I guarantee it.

13:56-Simmons: “Ok, let me get this straight…If you were picking and Steven Jackson fell to you at 5, you would take him? Berry: Yes. Simmons: How many sure things do you have on the first tier first round? For instance, I have seven. Berry: My top 5, and I’ve gotten some crap for this, is in order…LaDainian Tomlinson, I have Westbrook at 2, I have Joseph Addai at 3, Adrian Peterson at 4, and Steven Jackson at 5. Simmons: So you have Brady and Moss out? Berry: You look at history…if Brady throws 38 (touchdowns) that would be an amazing feat.” WOW!!! No fantasy player in their right mind would take Westbrook 2nd, much less not take Peterson at 2…at the VERY LATEST. I don’t agree with Jackson in the top 5. 1. LT 2. Peterson 3 / 4 Westbrook and Addai 5. depending on who you prefer Tom Brady or Randy Moss.

18:12-I can’t believe this but they are debating what would make a better name for a sports bar…J.T. O’Sullivan or R.W. McQuarters? Just know that I am putting myself through this for your benefit. I’d rather watch a television channel devoted to presidential ads than go through this crap.

19:38-Simmons: “Getting back on track, who would you take if you were picking 6th? Berry: I’d probably take Brady. At 7? Portis. Simmons: Portis? Really? Over Marion Barber? Berry: I like Barber, I am a little worried about Felix Jones, but not enough to move Barber down. I also like Lynch. Simmons: I think all of those guys are the same. You could make a case for Barber, Lynch, Portis, Larry Johnson. Except maybe Johnson. If you’re picking 9th, can you really win your league with Lynch and Gore? Berry: Probably not, I’m really down on Gore as a first round pick. If I’m picking 10th I’m probably taking Moss or T.O. and then one of those running backs.” Ok, if Berry was a politician we would be discounting him as a flip/flopper. This is the first time EVER that I have heard Matthew Berry claim that there is any situation where he would not recommend taking running backs 1st and 2nd. Amazing. Also, Larry Johnson is the only back of these mentioned that has even sniffed 1700+ yds rushing. How is he not at the top of this list?

22:12-Simmons: “Would you make fun of me if I took Romo at 7? Berry: Not really, because if you are picking at 7, and you pass on him…he won’t be there when you pick again. Simmons: This is one of those things I’m on. Sometimes you just have to take the guy you like. Last year I took Wes Welker ten spots ahead of where he should have gone. If you have to get a guy 8 or 6 spots ahead of where they should go, you just gotta do it.” If you read between the lines, they both basically endorsed the idea of disregarding value. F@#% the guy you like. If you pick based on guys you like…you ARE GOING TO LOSE.

23:08-Berry: “I think Romo is going to have a great year. I have him ahead of Peyton and its not even close. I think I would go RB, WR, then in the third try to get Brees. I have David Garrard as my #8 QB. I love Garrard. He’s healthy and he knows he’s the starter. And…he has better receivers. They’re not great but they are definitely better than what Garrard had last year.” Romo may have a great year, but what over the last 5-8 years tells you that Peyton Manning should go lower than 2nd among QB’s. LT is number one until otherwise notified, Peyton Manning is no worse than number two until otherwise notified and the top WR’s are in any order Randy Moss and Terrell Owens…period. Please I beg you, do not fall into the David Garrard idea. Apply value. If his value is appropriate, then pull the trigger. But quarterback rating is not a typical fantasy stat. If he had gotten an Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald-type WR, then I would change my tune.

29:59-Simmons: “Your 3rd best WR after Moss and T.O.? I;m sorry, Wayne would be 3rd, who’s 4th? Berry: I have Braylon Edwards ahead of Wayne. Marques Colston 5.” I absolutely love Braylon as the 3rd best WR. However, once again its lazy or irresponsible of Berry to not recognize that with Harrison on the field, Wayne is very good. This one could very well be a toss-up. There are extenuating circumstances that could be argued for or against on either guy. Those details should be addressed when discussing number 3 vs. 4.

30:37-Simmons: “Ok, who is your comeback sleeper of the Larry Johnson/Donovon McNabb variation? Berry: I actually like McNabb and like I said, Bulger and Holt. I could see Hines Ward. Simmons: Am I completely crazy for being high on all of the New York Jets? Berry: Not at all, I am very high on the Jets. I spoke with Antonio Freeman and he said that Favre will find a guy. That one guy on every play, he knows where that guy is. This year that guy will be Jericho Cotchery. He will have a monster year.” It's very convenient to say McNabb, since everyone is claiming that he looks better than he ever has in training camp. Bulger and Holt are also not sleepers pick. Even when they are bad, they are still pretty good. Define monster year. Will Cotchery go for 1400 yds and 18 touchdowns? I doubt it.

34:16-Matthew Berry is glomming his favored Washington Redskins.

39:42-Simmons: “You have two minutes, give me your top 3 sleepers. Berry: Chris Johnson. The Titans rushed the ball more than any NFL team. LenDale White will waddle into the endzone a few times, but I really like Chris Johnson. How deep do you want to go…I like David Garrard and Matt Schaub. I like Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor. Simmons: Strong name. Chris Taylor, I like that name. Kind of like the Melrose Place character names that were made up.” Now they’ve gone off on a Beverly Hills 90210 and Melrose Place tangent. “Berry: I love Ted Ginn Jr. Pennington is a professional quarterback, but from what I’m hearing Ginn is catching everything.” David Garrard is a risky pick. What if he is never going to be a 25+ td guy or throw over 3,000 yds guy? Is he still a good fantasy pick? The answer is an emphatic NO. Just my opinion, but if you are looking at Steve Slaton or Chris are going to lose and lose badly.

42:23-Berry: “I think McFadden is going to have a monster year. I have him as a top 20 running back. I actually love Troy Smith. And I really love Patrick Crayton. Terrence Newman was in Bristol and he said that Crayton has the best hands I’ve ever seen.” Again, define monster year. I am not going to destroy McFadden on this post, but he is going to have to learn to effectively run between the tackles to be effective -- much less monstrous. The Crayton talk is a load of crap. I'd love to ask Terrence Newman, one, if he actually said that, and two, if he believes it. The Cowboys at one point were considering two undrafted free agents as their number 2 WR because Crayton looked like crap. I never draft any WR who is not at least a no doubt number 2. I prefer to only have number one's on my team; it's just too much of a gamble.

49:01-Simmons: “Did we miss anything? You have a minute. Berry: I like Tony Scheffler as a tight end sleeper. Simmons: That’s it? You’re going to end on Tony Scheffler? (insert ESPN plug).” He did miss something. Berry misses a lot...often.

I understand this is only a podcast, but it once again provides evidence of how thoughtless Matthew Berry is. Granted, not everything he says is wrong. But, I protest that the things he mentions that are logical or correct are things that 99% of fantasy fans already know. It's the other stuff that is detrimental for fantasy fans to consider. Earlier, they both stated that they often disregard value. Are you kidding me? Value is the one facet of fantasy sports that separates the players from the winners. I love Braylon Edwards, but I would never think of taking him over Randy Moss or Terrell Owens. According to them, taking Edwards first is perfectly acceptable. I really really like Chad Johnson, but should I take him over Reggie Wayne just because I am a fan of his? Absolutely not, that violates the most basic of fantasy principles that you can find on and not with people like Matthew Berry and Bill Simmons. So we carry on, fighting the good fight. Doing our best to give fantasy sports players everywhere solid, logical, researched, and well thought out takes and perspectives on how to win in your fantasy leagues. All the while, doing our best to deter you from taking advice from so called "fantasy experts" who don't do the work we do. Just because you are speaking into the industry's largest megaphone doesn't mean that what you are saying is worth listening to.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

FDH Insider August 27 -- another 3-hour special

By Rick Morris

This Wednesday night marks the third and final three-hour edition of THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER (7-10 PM EDT on as we await next Wednesday night’s season debut of the FDH hockey show THE GOON SQUAD during the 9 PM EDT hour. But tonight’s fantasy program covers the fantasy landscape as usual while reserving extra time for those fantasy football owners still awaiting their draft or auction.

We start the show by reviewing the outcome of our recent fantasy Olympics draft. We are huge believers at FDH in enjoying fantasy sports not merely when they are applied in the traditional ways to major sports, but also when they are utilized to lend more enjoyment to niche sports. We will then take our first preview of our hockey mock draft, which we will disseminate on the show on September 10.

From there, we delve into two concepts for the end of the fantasy baseball season that could also be applied to fantasy hoops and fantasy hockey because they also have long-form seasons: the fantasy autopsy and the analysis of the year’s ultimate buy-low candidate.

Then, a bit into Hour Two, we turn to fantasy football first by expanding upon last week’s discussion of the auction format. How should you adjust your dollar-spending strategies as the event progresses? From there, we get into another specific sub-type of auction league: keeper-style! There are more lessons to be applied with that format.

Later in Hour Two, we examine a number of mock drafts in addition to our own from this program two weeks ago and we identify overvalued and undervalued players by these measures. Later, in Hour Three, we review this week’s Bill Simmons/Matthew Berry podcast on – so you don’t have to! Seriously, though, as much as we bag on “Roto” when we feel it’s appropriate, he made about an equal number of valid and absolutely ludicrous points, and we’ll sort out his advice for you.

Be sure to join us for the FDH Wednesday night bloc, only on!

Monday, August 25, 2008

Pelosi lies about Catholic abortion policy

By Rick Morris

Anyone who comes at public policy questions from a spiritual angle is going to address them differently from a person who approaches them from the secular side. I happen to fit the former category, and while I find those in the latter group incredibly wrong, I can at least respect the intellectual honesty of those who are forthright and learned in their positions. I have very good friends who cannot fully grasp my political stands on social issues because they are looking at them purely through the prism of this life here on Earth and I am not. If you're not coming from the same place I am, you're not going to get it, but that in and of itself has not inhibited any of my friendships.

What I really don't respect, though, as a lifelong Roman Catholic, are those who try to have it both ways, the "cafeteria Catholics" who endorse ONLY those positions not at variance with their more strongly held secular ones and who want to reap electoral benefits from their identity in the church (i.e. Joe Biden in the upcoming fall campaign). Be one way or be the other, period, and don't try to hide behind a priest's robe to try to look sanctimonious at election time.

The worst, most disgraceful example I have ever seen of a two-faced politician trying to have it both ways for scummy electoral advantage was Nancy Pelosi's despicable lie-fest on Meet the Press yesterday. Proving that Botox must indeed have the capacity to penetrate the cerebral cortex, Madam Speaker perpetrated a sleazefest for the ages when she attempted to deceive the American people about the Roman Catholic Church's position on abortion. She tried to claim a form of neutrality on the subject on the part of the church, a whopping falsehood that should have been obvious to anyone given that the church has loudly denounced abortion throughout history. You say you're a devout and practicing Catholic, Grandma, but I suggest that you click that link so that you can learn about matters of the sacred Catechism and other aspects of spiritual life that you sublimate to the interests of the drag queens and abortionists who form your base back home. Perhaps you're confused: it's the Constitution that you believe to be a living, breathing document that contains whatever made-up rights you and your wacko constituents thought up today -- even you couldn't possibly believe that the Word of God is subject to constant revision and focus groups -- could you?

Actually, San Fran Nan holds a great number of positions that are at odds with the church, from more extreme versions of child snuffing like partial-birth abortion to homosexual marriage. Like Biden, who took great pride in terrorizing Bork and Thomas when they attempted to get on to the Supreme Court and rein in abortion-on-demand, she is the perfect example of the phony secular politician who claims that she's down with the church because she opposed the Iraq War and so did the pope. That'd be like Kobe Bryant calling himself an unselfish teammate for passing the ball once after jacking up 10 consecutive three-pointers while being triple-teamed.

No matter how much Nancy Pelosi and her constituents might consider a ghoul -- who calls himself a doctor -- ripping apart a baby's skull with forceps a sacrament, the church is never going to agree. On any of today's social issues, people should be on the spiritual side (my preference) or on the secular side. What they shouldn't do is try to split the difference dishonestly. Stealing an election through deception is one thing, and sadly it happens all the time in this country. Committing sacrilege while doing that is quite another.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Dream Team vs. Redeem Team

By Rick Morris

Congratulations to the USA Men's Olympic Basketball Team for winning the gold medal today in China and thanks to them for bringing the mantle of supremacy home where it belongs. There is no competition in either the Winter or Summer Games that has a similar burden because of being recognized as a major sport in America (not counting baseball -- in which we send far less than our best because of the MLB season -- or hockey, which has THE single best Olympic tournament BAR NONE but is ignored by far too many in this country) and it makes many of my countrymen walk a bit taller today to know that we can successfully navigate the ever-more-difficult path to gold still.

In speaking to my fellow FDH Lounge Dignitary Nate Noy, the subject of comparisons to the original Dream Team arose. He found it ludicrous to mention the two teams in the same breath. Courtesy of Wikipedia, here is the roster of our first professional Olympic hoops team:

1992 Dream Team roster

And here's the roster that reclaimed the gold mere hours ago as I type this:

Pos. ↓ # ↓ Nat. ↓ Name ↓ Ht. ↓ Wt. ↓ From ↓
F/C 4 Flag of the United States Boozer, Carlos 6 ' 9 " (2.06 m) 266 lb (121 kg) Utah Jazz
PG 5 Flag of the United States Kidd, Jason 6 ' 4 " (1.93 m) 210 lb (95 kg) Dallas Mavericks
SF 6 Flag of the United States James, LeBron 6 ' 8 " (2.03 m) 245 lb (111 kg) Cleveland Cavaliers
PG 7 Flag of the United States Williams, Deron 6 ' 3 " (1.91 m) 205 lb (93 kg) Utah Jazz
SG 8 Flag of the United States Redd, Michael 6 ' 6 " (1.98 m) 215 lb (98 kg) Milwaukee Bucks
SG 9 Flag of the United States Wade, Dwyane 6 ' 4 " (1.93 m) 216 lb (98 kg) Miami Heat
SG 10 Flag of the United States Bryant, Kobe 6 ' 6 " (1.98 m) 220 lb (100 kg) Los Angeles Lakers
C 11 Flag of the United States Howard, Dwight 6 ' 11 " (2.11 m) 265 lb (120 kg) Orlando Magic
F/C 12 Flag of the United States Bosh, Chris 6 ' 10 " (2.08 m) 230 lb (104 kg) Toronto Raptors
PG 13 Flag of the United States Paul, Chris 6 ' 0 " (1.83 m) 175 lb (79 kg) New Orleans Hornets
SF 14 Flag of the United States Prince, Tayshaun 6 ' 9 " (2.06 m) 215 lb (98 kg) Detroit Pistons
SF 15 Flag of the United States Anthony, Carmelo 6 ' 8 " (2.03 m) 230 lb (104 kg) Denver Nuggets

Now, we tend to remember the '92 hoopsters as uber-legends that came together to decimate the rest of the world -- but look at the trajectory of the careers of those involved. Most of them were squarely in their primes. How many of them were still definitely on the way up? David Robinson, perhaps, but almost all of them were either in their primes or perhaps (in the case of Magic and Bird) just a tiny bit past it (although still superlative).

And now look at this year's team. How many can even be definitively pronounced to have reached their prime yet? Kobe Bryant, certainly -- Jason Kidd as well, although he is past his best days -- and probably Michael Redd; I don't see any tremendous ascent ahead for him (although as a lifelong Cavs fan I still hope to see him in the Wine and Gold at some point next year!). Almost everyone else on this team still has room to grow significantly in their games, and that's scary when you look at the fact that Lebron James and Chris Paul were clearly among the three best players in the NBA last year along with Bryant.

So right now, to put these "names" against the "names" of '92 is ridiculous; I agree with Nate about that. But I'm someone who always likes to look through the eyes of history, whether in or out of sports, and I don't believe that 10 years from now the "names" of the Redeem Team will still look woefully inferior. Once Lebron has reached what could be an incomparable prime ... once Chris Paul, already the best point guard since Magic, takes his unparalleled distribution-with-offense game to yet another level ... once Dwight Howard gets used to the pivot and continues to grow and mature ... once Chris Bosh continues to evolve into one of the most impossible matchup difficulties in league history ... once Dwyane Wade helps lead Michael Beasley and Shawn Marion to a title as he did Shaq ... once Deron Williams continues to form the best 1-2 punch of point guards in the league along with Paul since Magic/Stockton (or Magic/Mark Price if you are as huge of a #25 fan as I am!) ... once Carmelo continues to demonstrate what he showed in these games, that he has potential to be more than a mere dominant scorer but a champion as well ... once Tayshaun Prince -- well, I got nothing there, I'm still not sure why his overrated "defensive stud" carcass tarred this roster ... but you get the point -- once this crop of stars, most of whom are still ascending, finish making their marks on history, this argument will look completely different.

The one note about the composition of the rosters is that 1992 had nobody expressly selected to be a role player. Christian Laettner is the one name that jumps out like "How the heck did HE make it on the team???" but he was coming off of a great college career and was (very incorrectly) forecast to be a great pro. This year's team had a few players who were not selected because of any off-base supposition that they were among the USA's 12 best players, but because of a notion that they could fill a specific role. Hence the head-scratcher pick of Prince, the rebounding/energy pick of Carlos Boozer and the outside shooting specialist pick of Redd. If 1992 has a big edge over this year's crop, it would be in matching up the bottom three of the rosters: Laettner and whichever other two future Hall of Famers against Prince, Boozer and Redd.

So who would win in a game between the Dream Team and the Redeem Team? If the game could be magically generated between the two squads exactly as they were formulated, I'd still give it to the 1992 team -- but given the evolution in the skill sets of elite players like James, Wade, Bosh, Paul and Howard, if we were to take that team against the players of the Redeem Team ten years from now, I think it would be quite even.

Obama and the infantilization of politics

By Rick Morris

While I oppose Barack Obama's presidential campaign on policy grounds, and have repeatedly expressed my dissatisfaction here with the Republicans' unfocused "kitchen sink" approach to taking him on -- believing that voters are only going to be persuadable on the correct premise that his ideas will have bad consequences for the country -- I do feel that it's worth noting one effect that the Obama candidacy has had on the country: escalating the decades-long descent of liberalism into an ideology enunciated perfectly by children.

Once upon a time, long before I was born, this country was governed by grown-ups regardless of who controlled the levers of power in D.C. Then, in the 1960s, the student protest movement materialized and it ended up taking over the Democrat Party permanently in 1972 due to rules changes instituted after the disastrous 1968 convention. Overnight, the credos of dope-smoking, flag-burning hippies were enshrined in the DNA of one of our two major political parties. "Make love, not war" might as well have been spelled out literally in the Democrat platform, as the Utopian bromides of spoiled, smelly protesters were adopted by that political party and the foreign policy bureaucracy that they permanently control whether in or out of power. The neocon takeover of Republican foreign policy in this decade has framed the decision that the American people will face this fall in stark terms: will they risk turning to a candidate who will preach unmitigated pacifism or one who will be too trigger-happy in a world full of complex and often contradictory challenges? In all likelihood, the candidate who can set more people at ease on this question will win the election.

And that matter is an important one, frankly. It deserves to be regarded by people as such, which is why it offends me greatly when our politics are dragged down to an infantile level by the stale mentality of what should truthfully be called the Sixties Party. When Jimmy Carter pronounced his middle-school daughter as a key adviser on nuclear control in the midst of the Cold War in 1980, that was not a mere outlier. The drug-induced slogans of 1960s student protesters were nothing if not able to be easily understood by children at an early age of learning and emotional development -- and when they became official Democratic policy it is no wonder that those who at their age could better understand emotion than reason were so in tune.

This development has been a constant over the decades, even if it has taken on different forms. When the Republicans took control of Congress in 1994 and made (all too short-lived) noises about reining in the size and scope of the federal government, Democrats immediately ran to hide behind the skirts of women and children. Reductions in the size of GROWTH of programs were cast as ruinous attacks on the helpless in society and liberals dutifully trotted out hapless urchins before the TV cameras so they could pose the befuddled question about why rich Republicans hated them and wanted to see them starving on the street. The media lapped up the images hungrily and feeble Republicans, predictably, had no semblance of a counter-attack. The most hilarious example of this came in recent years when Democrats were in a struggle with President Bush about massive expansion of a welfare health plan and they actually delegated their weekly response to the president's national radio address to a 12-year old!

Apparently, though, the age of those fit to weigh in and be taken seriously on the presidential election has dipped slightly in the Age of Obama, which is unsurprising given the constant childlike repetition of gaga like "hope" and "change" that my FDH Lounge colleague Tony Mazur regularly and correctly ridicules as meaningless. Now this woefully oblivious soul proudly belches to the world the alleged wit and wisdom of his 11-year old, who in a bit of political analysis that will doubtlessly be quoted throughout the ages pronounced John McCain a meanie for running negative ads during the Olympics.

Now, given what I wrote about the state of American politics above, I actually agree with this emotion-over-intellect "proud father" in the sense that McCain probably was a bit tone-deaf in his choice about what kind of ads to run when. But this is because of the Sesame Street mentality of our country in which a "Sunshine, Trees and Flowers" candidate like Happy Barry O should be allowed to propagate his image without a counter-narrative. As I've repeatedly said previously here, McCain has to be very careful and not use the "kitchen sink" but rather a stiletto in making his attacks because of the the degradation of our national capacity to do anything other than think and feel. In other words, it's a sad reality, but attacks on Obama during Olympic commercial breaks will backfire because they will make kiddies cry.

God help us all.

Time To Say Our Goodbyes

By Tony Mazur

In our existence, we've heard the saying "Life is short". What that means is that we should enjoy our lives and not take anything for granted. But in our fast-paced society, we lose track of that age-old adage.

Each year in the waning days of August, I sit back and think about anything and everything. Traditionally, I spent the month of August soaking up as much of life as I can. We can all relate to this since we all went to school at any level. June slips through out fingers like sand on a beach. July has a similar effect. Once August rolls around, you wonder where time went.

I am currently out of school, attempting to further my career in the broadcasting industry. But this period of time is still tough on me. Even though I'm not in school, I still have friends sprinkled throughout various colleges across the United States.

I can recall a conversation I had with a friend of mine a few days ago. All summer we promised each other that we'll hang out eventually. It didn't happen, and we apologized to each other for not setting up a set date. She leaves today and won't be home until either Thanksgiving or Christmas.

We were so wrapped up with our own frivolous lives that we couldn't even take a few hours out of our night to hang out.

And I'm not just talking about school. It seems as if everything changes once September rolls around.

Right around this time in the Gregorian calendar, our climate constantly changes. It's as if Mother Nature has multiple personalities. One day it's in the 40s, the next day it's 75 degrees and sunny.

It really is a depressing time, if you think about it. All that work you put into making your yard look splendid will turn brambly and unkempt. All that work bringing boxes of tank tops and shorts down from the attic will seem ludicrous once the temperature drops.

We really don't appreciate things until they are either gone or close to leaving. Cleveland fans can remember back in 1995 when Art Modell announced that the Browns were headed to Baltimore the next year. We all loved the Browns, but we all thought that they would remain in Cleveland forever.

If it weren't for football season, we'd all be depressed.

If I can give any advise to those who feel the same way that I do, I'd sum it up with a quote from the great Theodore Roosevelt:

"Do what you can, with what you have, where you are."

So if you have friends or family in town for a short period of time, don't wait until they have to leave before you see them. If the weather is nice, go outside and enjoy the beautiful day. Then as we say our goodbyes, we'll know that we took advantage of our own destiny. I believe we'll all live much happier.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Look Out! Matthew Berry Is Predicting Again

By Jason Jones

It is a widely understood idea that the vast majority of Fantasy Sport experts believe that Matthew Berry is a laughable ambassador for the industry. We at are not only in agreement with such an idea, we are probably the spokespeople for it. Whether we like it or not, millions of sports fans turn to ESPN as the proverbial “worldwide leader in sports”. A large number of those people will take just about anything ESPN says or reports on as sports' Divine Mandate. Although the remainder of the sports analysts and experts can take that with a grain of salt, I am one who will not sit back and allow Berry’s verbal feces to be considered true guidelines for fantasy players everywhere. It is crucial to understand that Matthew Berry is not the Peter Gammons of fantasy sports. He’s not even the Stephen A. Smith or Tony Kornheiser of fantasy sports. In his latest piece found on’s front page today, he spews even more verbal diarrhea. Every year it seems, Mr. Berry (I refuse to call him the Talented Mr. Roto) releases a list of “rules to play by” or predictions that he makes with absolute certainty, but routinely will not address the following year when he is proved wrong repeatedly. This particular piece is of the prediction variation.

Here are some direct quotes before getting to the actual predictions:

- “I'm the type who constantly goes for it. I don't care what others say or think. I've fallen flat on my face many times and will do so again in the future, but generally speaking, it has served me very well, both in fantasy sports and in life. I play to win. And winning isn't being happy with third, it's being angry about it. If I don't win, I don't care if I finish fourth or dead last. As the saying goes, no one remembers second place”. (if memory serves, he falls on his face more often than not)

- “So to win, you'll have to draft well, make smart pickups and trades and get lucky with your team's health. You'll also have to take some leaps of faith (Actually all you need to do is draft well. Seriously, if you draft well observing value, you will never need to make trades or pickups. Those things should only balance out poor luck).

Here are the actual predictions with my sobering comments…

1. Anquan Boldin-will shut up and have a better fantasy season than Larry Fitzgerald. I say 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. (Boldin is fighting for a trade partner to get him out of Arizona. It is a very safe way to go to say he will have a great season. Especially since Fitzgerald just got PAID. First seasons following a major pay day generally are lower than their perceived average. Not very bold.)

2. Leonard Pope-will catch seven touchdowns. (Last year there were only 5 TE’s to accrue 7 touchdowns or better. They were Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Chris Cooley, Heath Miller, and Jason Witten. Pope was 8th with 5 touchdowns. Not a very bold prediction, plus Boldin, who previously mentioned will have a 1,300 yard season only had 800 yards last season. Where does the production get cut?)

3. Michael Turner-will finish with fewer than 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns. (I don’t agree with that. The majority of Turner’s touches in San Diego came in garbage time with other teams gunning for a playoff spot. 1,000 yards is not the benchmark it used to be. There were 17 running backs who went over 1,000 yards. Some that are not better than Turner…Thomas Jones, LenDale White, Brandon Jacobs, Justin Fargas. To assert yourself and claim Turner won’t reach 1,000 yards is bold. Boldly stupid. The rebuilding Falcons will have to run the ball if for nothing else than to preserve rookie Matt Ryan.)

4. Willis McGahee-will play every game this year and finish as a top 10 fantasy running back. (Wow! A few more comments like this and Mr. Berry should be committed. How can ANYONE say a player will play all 16 games? Trying to play God from Bristol, Conn? Top 10? Think about that. He is claiming that McGahee is good enough to knock one of the following out of the top 10…1. L. Tomlinson 2. A. Peterson 3. S. Jackson 4. B. Westbrook 5. J. Addai 6. J.Lewis 7. C. Portis 8. M. Barber 9. F. Gore 10. M. Lynch. And that’s not giving any credit to players who should have a drastically improved statistical season like Ryan Grant or Larry Johnson.)

5. Troy Smith-will net 24 total touchdowns. (I like Troy Smith and think he is the best option in Baltimore until Flacco is ready. But, I missed when Baltimore acquired any WR who could beat a Division 3 cornerback. There were 10 QB’s with 24 or more touchdowns. All of which have a current, former, or fringe pro bowl WR. T. Brady-R.Moss, T.Romo-T.Owens, Roethlisberger-H. Ward, P.Manning-M. Harrison & R. Wayne, D. Anderson-B. Edwards, B. Favre-G. Jennings, D. Brees-M. Colston, M. Hasselbeck-D. Branch, K. Warner-L. Fitzgerald & A. Boldin, C. Palmer-C. Johnson & T.J. Houshmandzadeh.)

6. Marshawn Lynch-will earn more than 1,700 yards and double digit touchdowns. (Lynch had 1,100 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2007. The offensive line is not very improved and there is still a question at QB, so what would make a person think he would improve another 600 yards? 10+ touchdowns is a serious possibility.)

7. Steve Smith-will not reach 1,000 yards or eight touchdowns. He’ll play in only 12 games. (First off, Smith is suspended for the first 2 games of the season. A margin of error of +/- 2 games is no reach. This would make the 3rd season in a row of less than 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. Big deal. This one was almost not even worth mentioning.)

8. Devin Hester-will finish the year as a top 25 WR and score a total of 10 touchdowns. (Well considering he will have about 4 or 5 touchdowns on special teams, that leaves 5 or 6 touchdowns on offense. How many WR’s had 1,000 yards and 5/6 touchdowns? 18. Bold move there, Matthew.)

9. Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry-blah blah blah. Kenny Watson will finish as the leading rusher on the Bengals and will have at least 1,000 total yards. (Well, there is a logjam of mediocre running back performances when you consider Rudi may have seen his best year already. Nice way to protect yourself by saying “total yards”. Who would really be impressed if Kenny Watson has 700 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards?)

10. Brady Quinn-will start for the Browns by week 9. (Can’t say anything upsets me about this one. Even though I think it will happen sooner. I still don’t think Quinn has much fantasy value)

11. Marion Barber-will finish the year as a top five fantasy running back. (Again, look at that top 5 of running backs. Is he better than LT, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, or Joseph Addai? Oh, did I mention rookie Felix Jones will figure into the running back touches…OFTEN?)

12. Some non-sense about Jessica Simpson and Tony Romo…not worth commenting on.

13. Tony Scheffler-will finish the year’s top 5 fantasy tight end. (I like Scheffler a lot. The bottom line is that this league has evolved at the TE position. There is only one TE in the top 5 known for his blocking and that is Jason Witten. The others are primarily pass catchers. Kellen Winslow, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark. He would have to catch 900 yards+ and at least 5 but more like 9+ touchdowns. He wasn’t even the clear first option at TE in Denver last year.)

14. Calvin Johnson-will be a top 10 WR. And Jon Kitna will throw for more than 4,000 yards, even without Mike Martz. (1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns MIGHT get him in the top 10. Anything less in touchdowns and he will need to get 1,200-1,400 yards to make that claim. Way to go out on a limb with the Kitna comment.)

15. Some lame cheap ESPN plug.

16. James Jones-will have 800 yards and seven touchdowns. (There are 21 WR’s who had better numbers than that last season. Are you serious? Next you will be claiming that Lorenzo Booker and his 300 yards from scrimmage is worth drafting.)

17. Something about fantasy baseball and dating a sane woman.

18. Matt Schaub-will throw for 3,500 yards and 28 touchdowns. (In a typical 12 team league, there were 10 QB’s that threw for 3,500 yards. Big deal. And there were 10 QB’s at or within striking distance of 28 touchdowns. Most experts like Schaub in the middle rounds and 3,500/28 is not all that stellar.)

19. Dallas Clark-will finish the year as the number 1 tight end. (Do you have a fever? There’s no logical reason to make this claim. Kellen Winslow will be number 1 and Dallas Clark will be behind Witten, Gonzalez, Gates and maybe even Cooley or Shockey depending on how they are used. Clark is a very nice tool for Peyton Manning, but lets be real, even with an aging Marvin Harrison, Clark might be the fourth or even fifth option.)

20. David Garrard-will be a top ten fantasy quarterback this season and throw no more than six interceptions. (I don’t know about you, but I’ve never been in a league that scores QB rating. No one wants interceptions, but if Garrard throws for 2,500 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions…he’s not a good fantasy quarterback. If Jacksonville would ever get him a decent WR, I might believe this one.)

21. Reggie Williams-will catch double digit touchdowns again. (You are clinically retarded.)

22. Something about how he’ll beat someone in a footrace.

23. Kolby Smith-will end the year as the leading rusher for the Chiefs. (A prediction of my own: Not only will Larry Johnson lead the Chiefs, but it will be north of 1,200 yards and double-digit touchdowns. And even if I’m wrong, they drafted Jamaal Charles who is absolutely sick.)

24. Ted Ginn Jr.-will reach 1,000 yards and score more than seven touchdowns. (Really? That’s your comment on Ted Ginn? With the addition of Jake Long and Chad Pennington, while Ricky Williams actually looks like a football player again and 1,000/7 is the boldest you can do for a real speedy deep threat at WR and probably their number 1 WR…really reaching aren’t we?)

25. Adrian Peterson (Vikings)-will play fewer than 13 games this year and finish outside of the top five of fantasy running backs. (Remember this is the same guy that went on ESPN and told the world to bench Peterson against the Chargers because of their solid run defense…that game he broke the single season rushing record. Sour grapes maybe? Also, Jamal Lewis only played 13 full games and still went over 1300 yards. You really are just trying to create controversy.)

26. Something about the new Beverly Hills 90210.

27. Tom Brady-will throw for 40 touchdowns. (THAT STILL MAKES HIM THE NUMBER ONE QUARTERBACK YOU IDIOT!!!!!!!)

28. No Saints running back-will have more than 600 yards rushing or 1,000 total yards. (This is the primary problem. Berry thinks all of you ride the short bus to work. No one is drafting a Saints running back to be one of their starters, that includes Bush. I personally think Darren McFadden will not be great, but I still drafted him over Reggie Bush. And McFadden is a rookie on a bad team.)

29. Eli Manning-will have another disappointing second half, play poorly at home and finish with no more than 25 touchdowns. (Eli had 23 touchdowns last season and that was good for 12th best in the category of touchdowns. What are you saying? Eli will be the Eli that won the Super Bowl so don’t draft him?)

30. Amani Toomer-will catch seven touchdowns. (No he won’t. Clearly you are just trying to come up with 50 things to say. Mario Manningham will replace Toomer as the number 2 and Steve Smith will be more productive than Toomer.)

31. Thomas Jones-will be a top 10 fantasy running back. (In 2007, Thomas Jones was the 24th best RB. Alan Faneca will help, but can you say Brett Favre? Cotchery and Coles will be better than Driver and Jennings were and he also has his former teammate Bubba Franks and is developing a chemistry with TE hybrid Dustin Keller.)

32. Jericho Cotchery-will be a top 20 WR. (That puts him somewhere between Lee Evans and Chris Chambers…which is right where any warm-blooded human would rank him.)

33. Brett Favre’s-consecutive game streak will end this season. And Brett will get involved in a scandal before he realizes the New York Media is very different than the Green Bay Media. (Let’s assume that this National Enquirer take happens. As far as a fantasy approach is concerned…WHO GIVES A SH#%!!!!)

34. Brett Favre-will retire at the end of the season and do a long, tearful farewell at various stadiums. There’ll be magazine covers and retrospectives. (Again…WHO GIVES A SH#$!!!!! That does not affect how players draft their fantasy teams for this up coming season.)

35. Brett Favre-will suit up for the Buccaneers next season. (I’m tired of this crap, see response from number 34.)

36. Darren McFadden-will have more than 1,600 yards and score double-digit touchdowns. (YOU ARE F@#%ING HIGH!!! Ask yourself this question, who was the last NFL RB who rushed for over 1,200 yards who COULD NOT run between the tackles? McFadden will be draft-worthy. But to say 1,600/10+, that puts him in the first round…You are a tool.)

37. Ronald Curry-will have at least 1,000 yards receiving, and JaMarcus Russell will score 25 touchdowns. (Are you on Al Davis’ payroll?)

38. Donovon McNabb-will play all 16 games. (There’s a stretch -- especially since just about every national analyst who has seen him in training camp say McNabb looks the best he’s every looked, physically.)

39. Santonio Holmes-will finish the year as a top 12 fantasy WR. (I don’t see him moving up into that level, but he was the 17th best WR last year anyway.)

40. Marc Bulger and Torry Holt-will return to fantasy prominence. Specifically, Bulger will throw 3,500 yards and at least 24 touchdowns. Holt will get 10 scores. (Again those stat lines don’t really say anything or chance people’s perception of their fantasy value. Besides, with the exception of last year, Holt has been the most consistent WR in fantasy over the last 6+ seasons.)

41. At least eight other tight ends will have a better fantasy season than Antonio Gates. (I personally don’t see Gates as the TE golden boy that most do, but c’mon you can’t be serious. Gates will be no worse than 4th.)

42. Something about Michael Phelps dating Lindsay Lohan. (Dude! Taking a shot at Michael Phelps is about as un-American as criticizing our men and women of the armed forces. Don’t be That Guy.)

43. Frank Gore-won’t be a top 15 fantasy player this year. Specifically, he won’t get 1,300 total yards or double digit touchdowns. (Not only are you wrong, you are throwing darts while blind folded. Without Martz, Gore had almost 1,600 yards from scrimmage. I have no clue as to what his touchdown tally will be, but he will probably get somewhere north of 1,200 yards rushing and flirt with 2,000 yards from scrimmage. It's not like their QB and WRs are all that great either.)

44. Ben Obomanu-will reach 800 yards and six touchdowns. (Really? Ben Obomanu. You’re putting a fantasy player that 95% of fantasy players don’t even know. Do you actually expect people to draft or even pick up off of waivers a player who’s career receiving numbers are 180 yards and 1 touchdown? You are unbelievable.)

45. Tampa Bay’s-defense will return to being a top five fantasy defense. (I won’t argue with this one either. However, I would like to point out that this is the same Matthew Berry that claimed that kickers and defensive teams are not worth drafting before the second to the last round.)

46. Chris Johnson-will be the leading rusher for the Tennessee Titans. (That’s not really saying anything. Clearly, the Titans want to recreate a USC type of backfield for LenDale White -- thus, Johnson being the Reggie Bush in this analogy. That could mean Johnson gets 700 yards rushing and White gets 650. So what are you saying? Anything? Anything at all?)

47. Justin Gage-will have more than 1,000 yards receiving. And Alge Crumpler will get eight scores. (Wrong!!! If they are lucky, the Titans offense will look like the one Michael Vick used to have. Terrible QB numbers, Crumpler will be the go-to receiver and probably the leader in receiving yards and have one of the better rushing attacks in the conference…if they are lucky.)

48. Both Santana Moss and Antwan Randle El-will have more than 1,000 yards receiving. Jason Campbell will throw for more than 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. (Jason Campbell will be fine. If any two Washington WR’s get 1,000 yards each it will be the two rookies-Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly-and Moss will finally get to play his natural position…the slot.)

49. Something about the positive/negative breakdown of comments on this article. (Whatever, you assmunch.)

50. My Redskins will win the Super Bowl, and Jim Zorn will be named coach of the year. Hey, it’s my list. Make your own. (Quite possibly the worst homer take possible. Look, I am a diehard Cleveland Browns fan and I would never suggest to fantasy fans that Braylon Edwards and Donte Stallworth will combine for 3,000 yards receiving, Jamal Lewis will rush for 2,000 yards, or either Browns QB’s will throw for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns. Which is what he might as well have said about his Redskins-see number 48.)

You see, just like any complacent tool of the machine, Matthew Berry has stopped working. He just doesn’t put in the time and analysis necessary to give objective well thought out advice to the millions of fantasy owners to seek him out for it. Somebody has to stand at the podium at the top of the mountain. It's just too bad for the rest of us that ESPN chose this hack of an "expert" to represent us all. Do yourselves a favor, let it go in one ear and out the other. Matthew Berry is not worth your time. Repeatedly, we at have called him out and challenged him, but as you can imagine, he wants nothing to do with a superior product like