By Rick Morris
NOTE: Wild card
picks were 0-2 (!).
Detroit vs. Oakland: This series, a rematch of the 1972 and
2006 ALCS, is remarkable not for the presence of the Tigers – favored by a
great many pundits, including this corner, to win the American League Central –
but for the presence of the As. I’ll be
honest, I had this exceedingly young team pegged for well over 100+ losses. Nobody this young should be able to go on
this kind of a tear. They’re an even
more extreme version of the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who likewise shocked me
during their run. Maybe that should be a
cautionary note to Billy Beane & Company – Arizona hasn’t made a similar
run since – but this run has been truly magical, even including a historic
catch-from-behind on Texas. And yet, for
all of their legitimate underdog credentials, their lineup has about the same
number of holes as Detroit’s – notwithstanding Detroit’s All-World combo of
Prince Fielder and Mr. Triple Crown, Miguel Cabrera. And their bullpen is a shade better than
Detroit’s. Now, the Tigers rotation is
superior because of the presence of arguably the best pitcher in the world,
Justin Verlander, but after that, the starters are again, fairly comparable. Detroit’s inability to outpace this
overachieving team by much shouldn’t be very surprising, as they’re in the
postseason merely by dint of having won baseball’s weakest division. But, with the first two games in their own
ballpark (making a mockery of “home field” for the team with the better record
for Division Series clubs) and the strong likelihood that Verlander gets it
done in his own yard, that tiny edge should be enough. Detroit
in 4.
Baltimore vs. New York Yankees: Like his counterpart Davey Johnson in
the Beltway area, Buck Showalter is proving how stupid the teams were that
passed him over for managerial positions over the years. It’s a joke to consider that either man has
not been continuously regarded as one of the 30 men deserving of a managerial
slot when each has proven to be among the top minds of the last generation. Regardless of whatever else Showalter
accomplishes, this season will go down as his Mona Lisa, as he elevated a squad
largely made up of journeymen into a playoff squad that shocked the world by
getting to October, then by taking out the far-superior-on-paper Texas
Rangers. It’s worth remembering also
that this Yankee playoff era did not begin with Joe Torre at the helm when they
won the World Series in 1996, but rather with Showalter on the bench in the
1995 Division Series against Seattle.
Revenge won’t play a part in this series, but familiarity between these
divisional rivals will. Baltimore played
the Yankees incredibly fiercely all the way through the season, bringing back
memories of their late 1990s rivalry (will Jeffrey Maier be throwing out the
first pitch at a game in the Bronx?) and their battles for supremacy in the
late 1970s. Despite the presence of
young megastar Adam Jones and career-year slugger Chris Davis, the Os are
vastly outmatched at the plate by the Bombers and they don’t fare well in the
starting pitching comparison either, although the gap between the teams narrows
dramatically once you get past CC Sabathia.
The Orioles do have a superior bullpen, however, and when you combine that
with the fact that this year’s screwy setup gives the Yankees home field “advantage”
with the first two in Camden Yards … well, it’s actually more impossible to
believe at this point that the Orioles will go quietly than it is to see them
pulling another shocker. Yankees fans
will age 20 years in the course of this one, but with CC on the hill for a
dramatics Game 5 at home, they should see their team prevail. New
York Yankees in 5.
San Francisco vs. Cincinnati: The Giants are back in the postseason
for the first time since their whirlwind World Series run of 2010. As was the case then, their starting pitching
is superb (borderline absolutely great if Tim Lincecum continues to show signs
of his old self) and their starting lineup, by playoff standards, is
crummy. Their bullpen has performed well
collectively in the absence of their leader, Brian Wilson. Across the diamond, they face a more
well-rounded foe in the Reds, with their strong lineup, decent rotation topped
by Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto and excellent bullpen. My bias is always towards balance and that
makes the choice fairly obvious. Cincinnati in 4.
St. Louis vs. Washington: This series poses a real conundrum, in
that Washington is deeper in most areas (even the starting rotation without
Stephen Strasburg). And yet, this is
their first time to the dance since the team relocated years ago and the
Cardinals proved again in the wild card game what they demonstrated last year
en route to their surprising World Series run, that they are almost impossible
to put away. Despite the amazing young
talent of the Nationals, they need a sage hand at the till to get the most out
of their abilities. Fortunately, the man
who similarly molded the 1986 Mets en route to their championship is sitting on
their bench. Plus, Davey Johnson will be
staring down a first-time playoff manager in Mike Matheny. While Washington may yet rue shutting down
Strasburg, it won’t be this soon. Washington in 5.
LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP
SERIES
Detroit over
New York Yankees in 6
Washington over
Cincinnati in 6
WORLD SERIES
Washington over
New York Yankees in 6
