By Rick Morris
With this race being the first primary since the debacle with the polls in New Hampshire, it's exceptionally difficult to get a read on what the results will be tonight. It seems certain that Obama will win, but that was what everyone said in New Hampshire. As always, I am supremely unafraid to stick my neck out, so I'll go with the following predictions:
Obama 43%
Clinton 34%
Edwards 23%
Showing posts with label John Edwards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Edwards. Show all posts
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
New Hampshire primary predictions
By Rick Morris
On the Democratic side, Hillary's Monday tearfest is going to add to the snowball effect against her. Obama wins by about 12 points, with Edwards back of her by a decent margin.
For the Republicans, McCain will hold on, but has been hurt by Romney's momentum in recent days. Notwithstanding a mediocre debate performance on Sunday night, Mittens has received credit for appearing brilliant for some unknown reason. He'll close to within 2 points or so of McCain. Huck will be a distant third, with Rudy, Ron Paul and Fred Thompson trailing him in that order.
If these results come in as I anticipate, Edwards will be finished and Hillary gravely, although certainly not mortally, wounded. Romney will hang on in hopes of a win in Michigan as the GOP race becomes a full-fledged free-for-all. That should give an opportunity for my man Fred Thompson, but he'd need to win or finish at least a close second in South Carolina.
On the Democratic side, Hillary's Monday tearfest is going to add to the snowball effect against her. Obama wins by about 12 points, with Edwards back of her by a decent margin.
For the Republicans, McCain will hold on, but has been hurt by Romney's momentum in recent days. Notwithstanding a mediocre debate performance on Sunday night, Mittens has received credit for appearing brilliant for some unknown reason. He'll close to within 2 points or so of McCain. Huck will be a distant third, with Rudy, Ron Paul and Fred Thompson trailing him in that order.
If these results come in as I anticipate, Edwards will be finished and Hillary gravely, although certainly not mortally, wounded. Romney will hang on in hopes of a win in Michigan as the GOP race becomes a full-fledged free-for-all. That should give an opportunity for my man Fred Thompson, but he'd need to win or finish at least a close second in South Carolina.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Romney loses, so America wins!
By Rick Morris
It's a sad night for Mittens and his spinmeister-in-chief Hugh Hewitt, but their Establishment Hollow Man bit the dust in overwhelming fashion. Mike Huckabee beat the spread in terms of expectations by a wide, wide margin and notwithstanding Hewitt's hilarious rationalizing, the nomenklatura of the Republican Party and the hierarchy of the right-wing blogosphere had their attempts at mind control shoved right back into their bloated, plutocratic faces tonight in the Hawkeye State.
Again, Huck is not my first choice and maybe not even my second, but Romney cannot be allowed to steal this nomination in the smoke-filled back rooms of the GOP fixers and tonight's outcome makes his campaign's attempts to do so more unlikely. The "Al Davis Republicans" that Hewitt speaks of, those who want somebody who can "Just win, baby!" -- they've got to be
wondering about their boy the Plastic Panderer when he gets smoked by a country preacher from Arkansas with no money who made a ton of rookie mistakes down the stretch. The Android is not dead, however, and it will be up to John McCain to finish the job in New Hampshire by putting a wooden stake through his heart and sending him back to his gay-marriage haven in a pine box (figuratively -- I don't need a visit from the Secret Service!).
As for my candidate, Fred Thompson, at this writing it looks as though he has managed the third-place finish he needed. In a diffuse race that looks like it could be dominated at different points by different candidates, he can stay viable if he can replenish his coffers. In the event that Romney goes down for good, maybe enough influential sellout conservatives will take the chance to redeem themselves by getting behind the only Republican in this race worth any excitement.
Congratulations to Huck for proving me wrong and winning this race tonight. His ability to reach out to average working people is rare for a Republican, especially for one who is not liberal (and he is not). Other Republicans can learn from him.
On the Democratic side, congratulations to Barack Obama. I don't agree with him politically on almost any issue, but I appreciate the hope and optimism he portrays and the fact that he does not run as a racially divisive candidate as Jesse/Sharpton did. I do think he's a good guy, which I would rarely say about a national Democratic figure, and I would not vote for him, but his approach to politics is good for the country. I thought Hillary would finish just ahead of Edwards, and apparently I was wrong, so she's in big trouble. She needs to win New Hampshire to keep the snowball from running further downhill, although she will stay in this race very late regardless.
It's a sad night for Mittens and his spinmeister-in-chief Hugh Hewitt, but their Establishment Hollow Man bit the dust in overwhelming fashion. Mike Huckabee beat the spread in terms of expectations by a wide, wide margin and notwithstanding Hewitt's hilarious rationalizing, the nomenklatura of the Republican Party and the hierarchy of the right-wing blogosphere had their attempts at mind control shoved right back into their bloated, plutocratic faces tonight in the Hawkeye State.
Again, Huck is not my first choice and maybe not even my second, but Romney cannot be allowed to steal this nomination in the smoke-filled back rooms of the GOP fixers and tonight's outcome makes his campaign's attempts to do so more unlikely. The "Al Davis Republicans" that Hewitt speaks of, those who want somebody who can "Just win, baby!" -- they've got to be
wondering about their boy the Plastic Panderer when he gets smoked by a country preacher from Arkansas with no money who made a ton of rookie mistakes down the stretch. The Android is not dead, however, and it will be up to John McCain to finish the job in New Hampshire by putting a wooden stake through his heart and sending him back to his gay-marriage haven in a pine box (figuratively -- I don't need a visit from the Secret Service!).
As for my candidate, Fred Thompson, at this writing it looks as though he has managed the third-place finish he needed. In a diffuse race that looks like it could be dominated at different points by different candidates, he can stay viable if he can replenish his coffers. In the event that Romney goes down for good, maybe enough influential sellout conservatives will take the chance to redeem themselves by getting behind the only Republican in this race worth any excitement.
Congratulations to Huck for proving me wrong and winning this race tonight. His ability to reach out to average working people is rare for a Republican, especially for one who is not liberal (and he is not). Other Republicans can learn from him.
On the Democratic side, congratulations to Barack Obama. I don't agree with him politically on almost any issue, but I appreciate the hope and optimism he portrays and the fact that he does not run as a racially divisive candidate as Jesse/Sharpton did. I do think he's a good guy, which I would rarely say about a national Democratic figure, and I would not vote for him, but his approach to politics is good for the country. I thought Hillary would finish just ahead of Edwards, and apparently I was wrong, so she's in big trouble. She needs to win New Hampshire to keep the snowball from running further downhill, although she will stay in this race very late regardless.
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