By
Steve Kallas (posted by Rick Morris)
The
buzz in New York is palpable as California Chrome will try and become the first
Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
The city is not going totally crazy over this event (as 11 horses have
won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness and then did not win the Belmont since
Affirmed; plus the Rangers are playing for the Stanley Cup), but you can still
expect 120,000 or so fans at Belmont this Saturday.
While
many believe that “this [a Triple Crown winner] is just what the sport needs,”
this writer isn’t so sure about that.
Unless the Triple Crown winner continues to race during his
three-year-old season (and maybe, with these salt-of-the-earth owners who
essentially bred this horse for $10,000, his four-year-old season as well),
there really won’t be much of a boost for the industry other than the afterglow
of a Triple Crown winner.
It
won’t increase attendance for other races; it won’t solve the multiple problems
facing the industry (declining attendance, drug issues that seem to plague
virtually every sport, etc.); and it won’t help the view that this sport isn’t
always on the up and up.
BUT
WHY MIGHT A TRIPLE CROWN WINNER HURT RACING?
Well,
for some time there has been a big split in the industry as to whether the
timing of the Triple Crown races should be changed. This year, Tom Chuckas, the president of the
Maryland Jockey Club (the Preakness is held in Maryland), came right out and
said that the timing of the races should be changed to the first Saturday in
May (Kentucky Derby as it is now), the first Saturday in June (Preakness) and
the first Saturday in July (Belmont).
Indeed,
some five years ago (in a New York Times article by Joe Drape), none other than
legendary Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas suggested exactly the same thing
with a slightly different timing: first Saturday in May, Memorial Day weekend
for the Preakness and July 4th weekend for the Belmont with,
according to Lukas, the Travers at Saratoga at the end of August to wrap up the
“Grand Slam.”
Of
course, many feel that the timing should remain the same. From trainer Billy Turner (of Seattle Slew
fame) to Penny Chenery (owner of Secretariat) to Steve Cauthen (Affirmed’s
jockey) to many present-day horsemen, there is much support to keep things as
is in terms of timing.
Since
this writer strongly believes that the timing should be changed, the potential
negative impact would be that if California Chrome, trained by 77-year-old Art
Sherman (who was the exercise rider for Swaps when that one won the 1955
Kentucky Derby), wins the Triple Crown, many will view that as proof that the timing
of the three races should remain the same (it says here that three races in
five weeks at three different tracks is virtually absurd today given the way
these modern horses are bred and trained).
Sherman,
by his own admission an “old-timer,” maybe trains his horse a little harder,
maybe has an understanding of what it takes to win the Triple Crown (although
this is his first horse in these events), maybe is a little smarter in terms of
how they used to do it in the “good-old days,” you know, when horses raced
often and not one or two months apart.
Contrary
to popular belief, the timing of the Triple Crown has not always been first
Saturday in May, then two weeks to the Preakness, then three more to the
Belmont. In fact, for a number of years,
the Preakness was raced before the Derby, which certainly makes sense from a
distance perspective (why the first race, the Derby, is longer than the second
race, the Preakness, has always been beyond me in terms of common sense).
The
point here is that the “tradition” that everyone talks about didn’t even exist
in the first, at least, 30 years or so of the Derby and Preakness and Belmont. It reminds this writer of the misnomer of the
“Original Six” in the National Hockey League.
The six-team NHL didn’t occur until 1943, some 17 years after the
National Hockey League started (you hockey historians remember the Montreal
Maroons and the New York Americans, let alone the Pittsburgh Pirates, an NHL
team in the late 1920s). So much for the
original part of “Original Six.”
WHAT
DO BASEBALL PITCHERS HAVE TO DO WITH ALL OF THIS?
Well,
it says here that there is a strong analogy between baseball pitchers then and
now and horses then and now. Nobody
today would even think of saying that virtually every time a pitcher goes out
today he would have to pitch nine innings, which is what happened frequently if
you go back to the 1950s, ‘60s, into the ‘70s and, of course, before.
Today,
a starting pitcher who comes out for the seventh or eighth inning is viewed to
be some kind of hero, a gritty guy who is tough. Of course a generation (maybe two) ago, this
was the minimum (if that) expected of a starter.
Just
as pitchers are not expected to “go the distance,” so, too, it says here, that
horses should not have to go through a grind that, once upon a time, horses
were bred and trained for. Today,
thoroughbreds are bred and trained for speed, not durability. Today, trainers train their top horses to
race five or six or seven times a year, not 15 or 20 or more.
For
the traditionalists (and frankly, this writer considers himself a
traditionalist, but a realistic one), the analysis should be that was then,
this is now. Imagine today if a major
league manager handed his starting pitchers the ball and said “you’re going
nine today.” Obviously, he wouldn’t be a
manager for long.
SO,
WHO DO YOU LIKE?
This
wrier, always trying to beat the favorite, will go with Tonalist, a fresh horse
who won the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 10th. Tonalist was on the Derby trail but
contracted a lung infection, missed the Wood Memorial, and was pointed to the
Peter Pan. His trainer, highly regarded
Christophe Clement, added blinkers for the Peter Pan and saw his lightly-raced
three-year-old run off by four lengths in the slop at Belmont (always nice to
have a win over the track).
In
addition, Joel Rosario, a top jockey who won the Derby last year aboard Orb,
chose to ride Tonalist over his Preakness mount, Ride on Curlin, who finished a
good second to California Chrome in the Preakness. It says here that Tonalist will be on or near
the lead at the top of the stretch, someplace you generally have to be to win
the Belmont (despite the distance).
For
an interesting discussion on the race itself and the timing issue of the Triple
Crown between this writer and WFAN’s Jody McDonald, see the attached link (Jody
Mac is strongly in favor of leaving the timing the way it is now).
While
it will be a wonderful story if California Chrome and his connections win the
Triple Crown (and he certainly is the best horse and the heavy favorite on
paper), this writer simply isn’t sure that it will be the best thing for the
industry.
@
COPYRIGHT 2014 BY STEVE KALLAS ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
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