By
Rick Morris
NOTE:
Playoff picks thus far are 0-2.
Texas vs.
Toronto:
The Blue Jays have seemed overdue for a playoff appearance ever since “winning
the postseason” a few years back (and indeed, they’ve just broken the longest
postseason futility streak in baseball) and Texas … well, they were hanging
around the upper echelon of the game for a few years before tanking in 2014. Losing Yu Darvish before this season even got
going didn’t bode well, but he was replaced by Cole Hamels and (shockingly!)
Yovani Gallardo. With the return of the
offense to peak form, they’re very formidable, albeit not on a level with
Toronto, because nobody is right now.
However, they’ve got to feel good about being the main reason that David
Price has not been considered a great playoff pitcher: he was a combined 0-3
against them in the ALDS in 2010 and 2011 when the Rangers surmounted Tampa Bay
en route to winning pennants. Both teams
have questions toward the back end of their starting rotations and both have
bullpens that you could classify as decent, but not revolutionary. So it’s the top of the rotations and the
lineups that should cause any separation, at least on paper. If you figure that Hamels and Price
neutralize each other, the savage slugging of Toronto should prove too much in
the end. Pick: Toronto in 4.
Houston vs.
Kansas City:
The extreme youth of Houston, as well as the explosive potential of their
offensive core, is going to keep this postseason interesting for as long as they’re
in it. How long that will be is
questionable by having to burn Dallas Keuchel in the wild card game – already on
short rest – thus rendering the possibility of two starts in the next round
almost impossible and even two appearances improbable. That leaves Johnny Cueto as the only
legitimate ace in this series – assuming that he can end his recent
downturn. You never want to oversimplify
by plotting the arcs of teams on a chart, but the Royals’ success this year is
the culmination of a long-term plan that almost looked like it was going to
blow up before last year’s World Series run from the wild card spot – that’s
why they acquired Cueto in the first place.
They’re all-in. The Astros are
still playing with house money, thought to be a year or two ahead of schedule. Young teams have gone on wild October runs
before, but notwithstanding the fact that they too knocked off the Yankees,
these Astros don’t appear as ready as the ’03 Marlins to go on that kind of
run. Of course, at the outset of the
NLDS that year, few probably pegged Florida on the “eyeball test.” Nevertheless, Houston’s lack of dependable
starting pitching depth – admittedly, against a team similar in that regard like
the Royals – makes it difficult to imagine them being the team to derail Kansas
City. Pick: Kansas City in 4.
New York Mets
vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: These franchises are linked in two separate, large
ways. First, the Mets exist because the
Giants and Dodgers vacated the New York area in 1958 and left a vacuum for the
National League to fill. Second, the
Dodgers’ big upset in the 1988 NLCS had lasting consequences: it served as a
premature end to what was supposed to be a New York dynasty and it resulted in
Los Angeles instead becoming the Team of the 1980s as the only one with two
world championships. However, that
postseason was the last one to conclude with a victory for LA since then and,
of course, the Mets’ streak of futility dates back two years earlier. In terms of recent history, they are very
different. The Dodgers have made several
playoff runs in recent years, some of them deep, although none of them
resulting in a World Series appearance.
The Mets, conversely, have been mired in their post-Madoff slump for the
past several years and only emerged this year behind the sudden emergence of
their new “Generation K.” Even with “a
Cespedes for the rest of us” (thanks, Seinfeld!), New York’s offense is still
sub-par by October standards, while LA is super-deep even if you can’t point to
any consistent, dominant core of the lineup.
But the early games of the series should tell the tale. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Grienke are going to
be very hard to beat at Chavez Ravine, but the late innings, just like the back
end of the rotation, are somehow still an issue for baseball’s priciest
team. This squad, with its recent
history of playoff underachievement, has to be thinking about that, just like
the fanbase. If the Mets, who are really
playing with house money, find a way to split at Dodger Stadium, they know that
they’ll still have to face the Big Two, but on short rest and with one of those
games at home. One of these teams needs
and expects to advance to cement their place in history. One of them wasn’t even supposed to be here
in the first place (thank you, Washington Nationals, for one of the biggest
tank jobs in the last 100 years!). As in
1988, it’ll be the team that you didn’t see coming that advances, with the shoe
on the other foot in terms of the franchises: Pick: New York Mets in 4.
Chicago Cubs vs.
St. Louis:
Nothing against Mike Matheny, but Tony La Russa vs. Joe Maddon in this spot
would have been really special, wouldn’t it?
Still, Cubs vs. Cardinals, one of the game’s great rivalries, will be
super-electric on a playoff stage for the first time ever. Like the Astros, the young Cubbies are matched
up against the league’s #1 seed and more established team from the state of
Missouri. Like the Astros, they’ll
suffer for not having their ace available for much in this round. But unlike the Astros, they have a bit more
depth in their starting pitching. But
unlike the Astros, they’ll be facing a team with a bit more also. CONFUSING!
Chicago does have a little more high-end pop in their lineup, which
could keep the series interesting, as could the advantage with the back end of
their bullpen. But all things being
equal, you have to like the chalk to prevail and get on another impressive
October roll. Pick: St. Louis in 5.
ALCS/NLCS
Toronto
over Kansas City in 6
St.
Louis over New York Mets in 6
World
Series
St.
Louis over Toronto in 6
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