In the previous post, I mentioned the idiocy of Matthew Berry. If need be, refer to said previous post to relate the following rules. Rules by Mr. Berry should not be adhered to, ever.
Rule 1
Your first fantasy rule to draft by is you must go running back/running back in the first two rounds. I disregarded that rule completely and it rendered, 2645 yds and 24 tds by running backs taken in the 5th and 8th rounds respectively.
Rule 2
Your second fantasy rule to draft by is to not get dazzled by rookie hype anywhere except running back. I believe he qualified this statement by adding "running backs" merely to save his azz. If you asked him ahead of the first regular season game, he would tell you that even Peterson did not merit a pick.
Rule 3
Your third fantasy rule to draft by is you must handcuff your stud running back. By "handcuff" we mean take the backup to that player. By insinuating that every team has a Portis/Betts combo, he comes off sounding almost intelligent. The only problem is that very few teams have a decent backup worth drafting. Generally, those teams are splitting carries and the result is two players stats might add up to one on another team.
Rule 4
Your fourth fantasy rule to draft by is to wait on wide receivers, because statistically speaking, they're a dime a dozen. "A dime a dozen", huh? 20 WR's had over 1,000 yds, that's almost 2 1,000 yard WR's per fantasy team. Check the previously mentioned team...2,933 yds and 31 tds between only 2 WR's.
Rule 5
Your fifth fantasy rule to draft by is to remember that we play with numbers, not names. No S#$T!!! Too bad you don't take your own advice on this one. Too often people refer to name recognition. Check the record, Berry is as bad at this one as anyone.
Rule 6
Your sixth rule to draft by is to not draft a kicker until the last round. This one not many people would argue with, but look at it closer. The difference between the best kicker and the 12th best kicker is almost 40 points. Its not about it being the last pick. If you are serious about winning a championship, you have to consider bye weeks. Is he claiming you should only take one kicker and punt the bye week? If not then you have to take a kicker before the final round. Besides, if you draft correctly in a 15 round draft, there are bench players who will never see the light of day. Clearly, it would make sense to draft a starting kicker ahead of a 5th WR or 4th RB.
Rule 7
Your seventh fantasy rule to draft by is that you can't win your league in the first few rounds, but you can lose it. Wow! Did you think that one up all on your own? This is where value is excessively important. That is about as obvious as saying, "You can't win with a team full of bench players"
Rule 8
Your eighth fantasy rule to draft by is not to be scared by the running back by committee. BULLS#$T!!!! Julius Jones, 588 yds 2 tds/Marion Barber III, 975 yds 10 tds = 1593/12. J.Lewis and A.Peterson = 2845/24. Running back by committee should be avoided if at all possible. Two starters getting the bulk of the carries will always beat a committee system. That's just basic math, I cannot believe he is this stupid.
Rule 9
Your ninth rule to draft by is to identify a sleeper is by seeing how they ended the previous season. Too many people already look at last season's stats only. The best example of this is Randy Moss. In OAK, he only put up 533 yds and 3 tds. Based on that idea, Moss is a sleeper; for the top third of the draft. It is so much more important to evenly analyze a players previous stats + outside circumstances. Any idiot would have thought Moss would have to put up drastically better numbers in NE over OAK. As for true sleepers, circumstances are absolutely more important than previous stats.
Rule 10
Your tenth rule to draft by is concentrate on facts and ignore the myths. People love to talk about contract years... Ok, maybe, but instead of worrying about the smaller details, how about just picking solid players with value and solid surrounding circumstances? Again, it seems Berry enjoys talking down the readers/listeners. At FantasyDraftHelp, we don't waste your time with the information you already know.
Rule 11
Your 11th rule to draft by is to look closely at the schedule. I'm not really worried about bye weeks. It's one week, if you have to take it on the chin, so what? But if fantasy football is all about matchups... I am so happy he put this one down. The biggest strike against Berry came when he strongly advised that anyone who owns Adrian Peterson MUST SIT HIM AGAINST THE CHARGERS. The Chargers had defended the run reasonably well. Berry puts way too much stock in matchups. The fact of the matter is, if a player is good/great, it shouldn't matter who he plays against. Earlier, Peterson put up 200 on Chicago, and at that point they still were considered an elite defense. The Giants have one of the worst cornerback units in the league, but they still did well against Randy Moss in Week 17. Matchups mean squat; for the most part. A matchup is not enough reason to sit your stud players. Matthew Berry, I dare you to respond!
Rule 12
Rule No. 12 to draft by is to know the tendencies of a head coach. Lots of people are high on Philip Rivers this year, but while I like his skills, Norv Turner has never had a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Is your foot in your mouth yet, numb nuts? Phillip Rivers was the 15th best fantasy QB (and considering he did not rank Derek Anderson, Ben Roesthlisberger, Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler, Jon Kitna, or Eli Manning in the top 15), that puts Rivers in the top 10. Rivers was also the 12th highest ranked QB in TD passes, so what the hell are you barking about now?!? Again, he gets caught up with the wrong details. With McNabb, Garcia, Bulger, and Leinart being behind Rivers, Rivers is a quality selection as long as you adhere to value. Naturally, you're not going to take him in the first 3 rounds, but if you pick RBs and WRs ahead of a starting QB, it does make sense. That's just one example.
Rule 13
Rule No. 13 to draft by is to look at all stats, not just the obvious ones. Like Red Zone targets. How about looking at RBs 3rd down and short percentages? Sometimes if you analyze too much you can lose sight of the important details. This is why artists periodically step back to get a better look during the process. Hypothetically speaking, say WR A last season had 1400 yds/15tds. WR B had 900 yds/8tds. If WR B had 7 tds in the red zone and WR A had 5, WHAT THE HELL DOES THAT MATTER. These are the kind of things that might come in to question when deciding on which WR to take in the 13th round, after your starters are set. Again, these are the kind of players who may never start, if you draft correctly.
Rule 14
The 14th rule to draft by is when it comes to quarterback this year, there's the top 6 and everyone else. Hopefully, you manage to grab one of Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Marc Bulger or Donovan McNabb. Ranks: Peyton Manning (3rd), Carson Palmer (9th), Tom Brady (1st), Drew Brees (4th), Marc Bulger (22nd), and Donovon McNabb (12th). With a range of 1st-22nd, there are 16 other guys to consider. Although I do not disagree that these are quality players, one cannot discount Romo, Roethlisberger, Favre, Hasselbeck, Eli Manning, Rivers and a group of others. It all comes back to value. Where are you picking your starting QB? If its in the first 3 or 4 rounds, then maybe. But if you go into a draft with the plan of picking a RB in the first and second, a QB in the third, a WR in the fourth and fifth, a TE in the sixth, and so on...you will lose every time.
Rule 15
Rule No. 15 is to concentrate more on the skills of players than actual roles. People get hung up on the terms starter, No. 3 wide receiver and change-of-pace back. Rightfully so. The highest ranked "change of pace back" was Najeh Davenport with 499 yds and 5 tds. He seriously believes we are all stupid, that or he doesn't actually do his own research. Maurice Jones-Drew is not a change of pace back, he is the future starter and almost a 50% share of the carries. Clinton Portis was the 5th best RB with 1262 yds and 11 tds, Ladell Betts (his handcuff) was ranked 57th with 335 yds and 1 td and should not have been drafted or at least dropped at some point early on. And if anyone doesn't think Reggie Wayne is worthy of the 5th-8th best WR, then they need a different hobby.
All in all, the point is very simple. You cannot have absolute rules to draft by. The draft moves like a living thing. Just like in the real NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL drafts a GM (fantasy owner) must be willing to roll with the changes as they unfold. Trends toward many players being taken at a position in close succession, commonly referred to as runs, must be adjusted to if you are to be successful. If you are picking 9th and running backs have gone 1-8, it makes more sense to take the #1 WR or #1 QB and address RB later. In the previous post I showed how you can do just that and still build a team that would destroy someone who follows Berry's Rules. According to Berry, you should draft Deuce McAllister (1057/10-2006 stats) over Peyton Manning (4397/31-2006 stats) or Chad Johnson (1369/7-2006 stats). Is it any wonder this guy drives me nuts. Bottom line, don't listen to "The Talentless Hack" Matthew Berry. Do yourself a favor and think for yourself. If you don't have the time, do some initial research on various fantasy websites. When you are done with that, I guarantee you, it will be in your best interest to get all advice, draft boards, and analysis from
www.fantasydrafthelp.com
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