2007 ALCS/NLCS preview

By Rick Morris

I correctly predicted the participants in the American League Championship Series, but missed wildly on the NLCS. In that matchup, we will see one of the greatest underdog vs. underdog matchups in the recent history of sports.

The Diamondbacks are a fascinating story. This team, so filled with young and raw talent, but so underdeveloped, seemed to morph into their 2009 selves right before our very eyes against the Cubs in the Division Series. Assuming that everyone stays healthy, the Arizona lineup will in another year or two be very comparable to the Big Red Machine, the ’95 Indians or the Yankees of the past year or two, whichever comparison you prefer. But they’re just not there yet – regular season numbers don’t lie. I love to find cross-sports analogies, and I’m trying in vain to come up with an example of a team collectively playing a year or two ahead of its time like what we’ve seen from the BabyBacks. The closest comparison I can find right now is the ’92 Cowboys, who were thought to be a year or two away once they reached the playoffs, but their regular season performance was far more advanced than that of the ’07 Diamondbacks. The ’74 Steelers were also young, but again, probably more developed than this team.

Fans of the Backs and Rockies won’t appreciate my conclusion on this matter, but the success of these teams speaks largely to the utter mediocrity of the National League. These teams play in a tough division, but it is flawed. The Padres have yet to get serious about augmenting their great pitching with even an adequate offense and the Dodgers continue to be mired in an identity crisis about whether they’re a big-spending veteran team or one totally committed to their superlative young talent. The less said about Frisco, the better. And the league as a whole has perhaps never been further behind the AL. Clearly, the Cubs “won” their division by being the least flawed of a bad bunch in the Central and the Phillies, like the Rockies, were just treading water before playing super-hot baseball starting in mid-September. When one great streak at the right time can put you in October, it’s more a testament to the mediocrity around you that allows you to blow by them. Whoever wins the NLCS will deservedly be a steep underdog to the team coming out of the “winner’s bracket.”

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: Can the “future version” of the Diamondbacks stick around for one more series against the Rockies? At the risk of underestimating the Rockies for the second consecutive round, they shouldn’t have to. Their legitimate ace is one more than Colorado has and their bullpen is as sweet as any in the game, so they rate the edge in any close game going into the late innings. Plus, the one advantage that the Rocks have, their insane momentum, should diminish from the lag time between series. They do have an incredible core of young hitters just entering their primes, led by the underrated-no-more megastar Matt Holliday, so they should not be underestimated, especially in games when the DBacks trot out an overmatched pitcher (I’m looking at you, Doug Davis). Colorado’s only chance seems to be to steal one from Brandon Webb in Game One and keep the offensive momentum steamrolling over Arizona’s thin remaining starting pitching. If they can do this, they could win in a relatively short series. But I don’t see that happening. Diamondbacks in 6.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: These are clearly the two best-balanced teams in Major League Baseball at the moment, as the first round demonstrated. With Curt Schilling reverting to October form as I predicted for the first round, he has earned his way into the #2 slot in the rotation, which promises a pair of incredibly tight pitching battles in the first two games of the series as Beckett-Sabathia and Schilling-Carmona will keep us all on the edge of our seats. Dice-K probably still rates an edge over whoever the Tribe designates as a #3, however. The lineups seem fairly even at the moment, owing largely to the roll that Indians like Asdrubal Cabrera and Kenny Lofton have been on lately. The bullpens also seem well-matched, with the notable exception of Papelbon vs. Joe Blow at closer. That disparity, combined with the Boston edge in starting pitching depth, is likely to tell the tale in the end. Red Sox in 6.

World Series Prediction: Red Sox in 5.

Who will become the Team of the Decade?

By Rick Morris

When the Major League Baseball playoffs begin tomorrow, the stakes will be even higher than many analysts have indicated. At stake is more than the 2007 World Series Championship – the designation of “Team of the Decade” may be in the balance as well.

Consider the following: no team has accrued more than one World Series title this decade. Of the teams who have been to the mountaintop, the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels and Diamondbacks are in position to gain a second grand prize (forgetting for a moment that there is no continuity whatsoever between the 2001 D-Backs and this squad – we’re speaking of franchises as a whole). The Yankees, with two additional pennants and one excruciating near-miss of a pennant in 2004, would, for all of their disappointments in recent years, actually be the leaders in the “Team of the Decade” chase so far. This is similar to the situation that St. Louis found itself in back in 1987, with one World Series title and two Game Seven World Series losses. The 1980s were a very similar decade to the present one in terms of the scarcity of repeat World Series winners and the Cards seemed to be in position to stake a fragile claim to the decade crown – until the Dodgers pulled an upset for the ages over the mighty Bash Brothers As in 1988 and became the only team in the 1980s to win two world championships.

With only two more seasons remaining this decade, a team winning its second World Series of the Oughts could stake a strong claim to going down as the best franchise of the era – especially if it is the Yankees and can pair the aforementioned two pennants with two world titles as part of their case. Not every decade has produced a dynasty like the Fifties Yankees, Seventies As or Nineties Yankees. Sometimes the leading team asserts itself in a more subtle manner, such as the Eighties Dodgers, and that’s probably the main reason that this intriguing subplot to the postseason has flown completely beneath the national radar. But if you are a fan of any of the four teams with a chance for your second title in the last few years, you should be aware of just how much is at stake in the eyes of history.