Super Wednesday

By Rick Morris

This past Sunday, a priest at my parish noted that on a week with Super Sunday and Super Tuesday, Ash Wednesday was actually a Super Day bigger than the others. I agree with that sentiment, as I’m sure many do.

I am a Roman Catholic who is celebrating Ash Wednesday and I believe strongly that the sentiment of the day transcends any parochial religious differences that believers may have. The message that we come from ashes and will return to that form someday is indisputable. On this day, regardless of your religious preference, I urge you to look within yourselves and ponder the big picture for a moment. Do you feel like you’re going in the right direction, just in a general sense? Real wisdom comes from the capacity for introspection, so if you devote the time to honestly take the measure of yourself and examine what is working and what is not, it should lead you in the right direction regardless of what you see.

Super Tuesday Liveblogging Part IV

By Rick Morris

This will be my final post of the evening and I will be revising my previous assessment, at least on the Republican side. While I still think the race will go on for at least another few weeks, McCain comes out of tonight extending his already strong lead having just won California and Missouri. Also, at the time of my last post, I confess that I had not seen some of the internal numbers in the polling down South -- Romney, who was being propped up by so many right-wing "opinion leaders," ran in third place across wide swaths of Dixie. His enablers will cry anti-Mormon racism, I'll retort that those voters just know a slick Northern Yankee phony when they see one, but regardless, a candidate trying so hard to be Goldwater 2K8 cannot afford to be repudiated so soundly by such a significant part of the base. So my prediction in the last liveblog installment was wrong; McCain comes out of today much stronger, Romney is weaker and Huckabee is in better shape but still a distant third and almost completely a regional candidate. And the Mitt-Bot meme about McCain only winning states dominated by Northeastern fru-fru elites (I never understood how South Carolina and Florida fit into that narrative?) -- well, McCain wins Illinois and Missouri among other states. How do you like them apples, Chowds?

The Democratic picture is still quite muddled. Obama's going to come out of the night with more states won, but Hillary just won the Big Casino, California. That Clinton win proved a bit disquieting for Claire McCaskill ... at least from the looks of her creepy, wrinkled Oompa Loompa visage.

Late note from MSNBC: Team Mittens is having "frank discussions about the future" on Wednesday. Turn out the lights, Dandy Don, the party's over.

Super Tuesday Liveblogging-Waiting on California

by Jason Jones

Almost 2 hours since the last post, the results have changed more closely toward my favor. I want to address the delegate issue. Clearly, I do not agree with the delegate aspect at all. The House of Representatives members are determined by population per state. The American way is to have balance, that balance is found in the Senate; 2 across the board. In my simplistic way of thinking, whoever wins the most states wins, period. This happens in some fantasy sports. If one person dominates, we alter the rules to make it fair. The analogy is this, if Barack Obama wins 46 states and Hillary Clinton gets 4, there should be no way Clinton can win. Using hypothetical numbers for this exercise, if California, Texas, New York, and Florida are worth 1 more delegate than all of Obama’s 46 states, then something is wrong with the system. That just sound un-American. Luckily for me I don’t have to worry about delegates just yet.

I am still, like most of you, waiting for California. As it stands, including states that are close to being called…

John McCain-AZ, CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY, OK

Mittens Romney-CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT

Mike Huckabee-AL, AR, GA, WV

Barack Obama-AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT

Hillary Clinton-AZ, AR, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN

The math nerds at Fox News are reporting that even if McCain/Obama lose California, the number of delegates that would be divided would be enough to walk away from Super Tuesday with an overall lead for both McCain/Obama. Can you tell where my respective support lies? As I said before, this country cannot afford to allow Clinton/Romney to be the nominations. If you thought George W. Bush did a poor to a crappy job as President, Hillary or Mittens might make the country implode to a lack of F@#%ing existence.

Super Tuesday Liveblogging Part III

By Rick Morris

RealClearPolitics is still on top of the big picture.

Arizona went for McCain and by a bigger margin than was anticipated, so there goes the Mittens spin.

I spent about an hour on the phone tonight with our Senior Editor Jason Jones just chewing over what we're seeing so far. I have to say that, for what has been billed as the biggest primary/caucus day in American history in terms of delegates up for grabs on both sides, this day does not seem like it's going to change the race drastically on either side. That could be famous last words on my part, but if it is, it is, I'm not afraid to stick my neck out there. A very persuasive column surfaced today (referenced here) that suggests that the Democrats are on a trajectory to have their fight either last all the way to the convention or at a bare minimum, come down to a bloody, superdelegate-by-superdelegate struggle that casts aside all results decided at the polls. On the Republican side, as of now, McCain seems poised to come out of the day not losing any ground in terms of having a strong upper hand, but he's not going to put it away tonight.

CNN just called Georgia for Huck in an excruciating three-way between McCain and Willard. Dare I suggest that my brother and sister-in-law may have provided the margin of victory?

Missouri and Cali are too close to call still, but the polls on the West Coast have not been closed for very long.

Again, I could be wrong, but I think the anticipated impact of this day will prove to be at least slightly overrated on both sides -- and in a season of monstrous political surprises, having The Most Super Tuesday in the history of the nominating process amount to a fart in a thunderstorm relative to the momentous level of expected drama would have to be one of the biggest shocks.

Super Tuesday Liveblogging-Early Impressions

by Jason Jones

I must preface the following by saying, I have never watched Super Tuesday or any other final 2 nominees' coverage as I am now. With the 9pm est polls closing in 7 minutes, I am attempting to make some logical sense, not political sense, of what seems to be in thus far.

John McCain-Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey (still in Alabama, Georgia, Montana)

Mittens Romney-Massachusetts (still in Montana)

Mike Huckabee-West Virginia (still in Georgia)

Barack Obama-Georgia, Illinois (still in Alabama, Connecticut, Tennessee [the gap here has been narrowing])

Hillary Clinton-New York, Massachusetts, Oklahoma (still in Alabama, Connecticut, Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee)

Democratic states too close to call at the moment: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, New Jersey, and Arizona. At last check, I am pretty sure, unless the tide completely turns, that New Jersey will end up being a state for Clinton. Right now, the big hub-bub seems to be over New Jersey. It is a winner-take-all on delegates. Fox News is reporting that the Clinton camp believes it is all but locked up. Barack Obama was just declared the winner in Delaware with approximately 50%. Apparently, Obama is also winning and separating in Connecticut. Currently with 27% in, Obama is leading Clinton 51% to 47%. As far as Obama is concerned, Illinois and Delaware are not that much of a surprise. Georgia and potentially Connecticut would greatly surprise me.

The question that keeps coming up lately on the Republican side is, “who does Huckabee’s moderate success benefit?” Initially, most of these talking heads claimed it would support Mittens (which was the earliest disappointment for me). The move to almost punt West Virginia on McCain’s part in conjunction with other factors could swing in McCain’s favor by nights end.

Arkansas goes to Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee.

New Jersey does indeed go to Clinton.

As I sit watching this unfold, the key motivation remains the same.

1. McCain MUST SEPARATE from Mittens Romney.

2. Obama MUST REMAIN RELAVENT versus Hillary Clinton.

Clinton and Romney are bad for America. At this point, if the nominees are Barack Obama vs John McCain, I will feel as if America has dodged a bullet from the gun of inevitable demise. At that point I won’t even care who wins on the surface. Its more important that Clinton/Romney not be involved when this gets serious. We are on the cusp of a real moment. Like a promising young teenager poised to decide for or against drug use. On one hand, take the drugs and fall into a shell of itself (i.e. voting for Clinton/Romney) or on the other hand, just say no and ensure that said kid continues on a positive path (i.e. not voting for Clinton/Romney).

John McCain just won New York.

Romney crushing McCain in Arizona. ARIZONA! Guess he should’ve made more of a fuss on Illegal Immigration.

Super Tuesday Liveblogging Part II

By Rick Morris

Real Clear Politics has, as their name would indicate, the clearest election scoreboard you will find anywhere right on their front page.

On Hugh Hewitt's radio show right now, he's asking people who they voted for and, get this, apparently it's nothing but Mitt-bots calling in right now. Shocking! Wait, some little old lady just got on and called him a character assassin. How'd she get past the call screener? That was funnier than any 1,000 "Baba-Booey" phone calls combined.

No results thus far have really changed the narrative we saw coming into the night. Arizona remains too close to call, which Eye Candy Megyn Kelly claimed to be a big blow to McCain. I see somebody got their Romney talking points email today!

Notes from The Corner on National Review's website:

^ Hillary's peeps are sending out emails bragging about the red states she's winning? Uh, Hill? You're running against a guy whose middle name is "Hussein." Ever stop to think that those wins in Reagan Country may be by default?

^ Georgia is having troubles tabulating the vote.

^ Mitt Romney kissing Bob Dole's arse after being dumb enough to attack him today is getting spun like there's no tomorrow on NRO.

I just read Jason's first live-blog of the night comparing the candidates to drug use. To me, Mittens is black tar heroin, Hillary is crack (I chose her for crack so I wouldn't have the Reverend Al picketing me) and Obama is a pile of whippits.

Super Tuesday Liveblogging Part I

By Rick Morris

First, let's get the initial predictions out of the way. Given the polling muddle in so many states, this assessment will be general on both sides as opposed to state-by-state.

For the Democrats, my sense is that Hillary Clinton comes in ahead of Barack Obama by a decent margin, but nothing overwhelming especially given the fact that delegates are awarded proportionally in so many places. I look for Hillary to win the majority of states tonight, however, which will provide a psychological boost to her campaign in the absence of a delegate landslide.

On the Republican side, I look for a solid John McCain win and an excellent tally of delegates given the winner-take-all victories he will earn tonight. I think McCain hangs on narrowly in California, but Mike Huckabee stays alive in the South and Mitt Romney takes a handful of states to stay alive.

Huck has already won the West Virginia caucuses with help from the McCain voters today, causing the Romney people to predictably cry. Obama won Georgia also.

Revisiting the Clintons and race

By Rick Morris

As I previously indicated here, I have been feeling some glee at seeing the Clintons suffer accusations of racism during the presidential campaign, since they have been poisoning the political discourse of our country for decades by lightly accusing political opponents of the same sin. But after discussing this matter on last night's FDH Lounge program, I found myself examining more angles still regarding this controversy.

One of The FDH Lounge Dignitaries, Chris Galloway, pointed out that there is a chance that the Clintons are asking to be thrown into the proverbial briar patch here -- that is, the Clintons know that the racial angle is a short-term loser with the South Carolina primary looming, but it will be a long-term winner in the events to follow. Ultimately, no matter how many black voters turn out, a black vs. white dynamic is a loser for a black candidate even in a Democratic primary. Interesting thought, and you certainly can't disbelieve it on the grounds that the Clintons aren't sufficiently cynical to perpetuate it.

Also, we got a call during the program from Andy from Toledo, one of the most faithful callers to our show during our first year. As a black man who supports Barack Obama and is significantly to the left of the Clintons, Andy had an interesting point to make. Since Bill Clinton was the greatest president ever in the morally dubious category of "Speaking In Words That Must Be Constantly Parsed," he knew exactly what he was saying when he branded Obama's campaign and life story a "fairy tale" -- moreover, black voters know this. With the coordinated points of attack emanating from the good old Clinton War Room (the "fairy tale," Obama and MLK being phony speech-givers, Bob Johnson's not-so-subtle about Obama's past weed and coke habits), black voters see the Clintons turning their "By All Means Necessary" mode of attack on one of their own -- and they don't like it.

There are signs now that the Clintons may be seeking a racial cease-fire with the Obama campaign, and while I would have previously thought it would have been because they were dealing from a position of weakness, I'm now rethinking that. Perhaps Chris is right and they want to move on because they've already accomplished their purpose: planting in the minds of white voters on Super Tuesday that angry black voters are out to take over the party and the country.

All that we can tell for certain right now is that events are going to get much more divisive and interesting before they settle down -- and as an emphatic non-Democrat, I am gleefully enjoying the show.