Saturday, June 28, 2008

More early 2008 NBA roster analysis

By Rick Morris

Here's more great analysis from our Senior Editor Jason Jones as he dissects all 30 NBA rosters in the aftermath of this past week's draft. Note that with his roster rankings, he lists a few of the key players on each team. Bear in mind also that the statistical rankings relate to Part I of his post-draft analysis in the column posted just below this one.

Gut Check Roster Rankings



1 BOS KG, Pierce, Allen, Rondo
2 PHO Nash, Amare, Shaq
3 DET Billups, Rip, Prince, Sheed
4 DAL Dirk, Kidd, Josh, Terry
5 POR Oden, Roy, Bayless, Webster
6 LAL Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom
7 NJN Carter, Yi, Lopez, Harris, Krstic
8 SA TD, Parker, Bowen, Manu
9 LAC Brand, Maggette, Egordon
10 ATL Johnson, Smith, Bibby, Horford
11 DEN AI, Melo, Camby, Nene, JR
12 UTA Boozer, Deron, AK47, Koufos
13 MIA Wade, Beasley, Marion, Mario
14 PHI Iguodala, Miller, Carney, Speights
15 TOR Bosh, O'Neal, Bargnani, Calderon
16 MEM Conley, Gay, Mayo, Darco
17 CLE Lebron, Boobie, Z, Ben, West
18 CHI Rose, Hughes, Deng, Gooden
19 HOU T-Mac, Yao, Battier
20 NO Paul, Peja, West, Peterson
21 MIN Love, Jefferson, Brewer, Foye
22 CHA Felton, Richardson, Wallace
23 SEA Durant, Green, Westbrook
24 MIL Redd, Jefferson, Villanueva, Bogut
25 GS Davis, Ellis, Jackson, Harrington
26 ORL Howard, Lewis, Nelson
27 WAS Arenas, Butler, Jamison
28 SAC Martin, Artest, Miller
29 IND Ford, Rush, Granger, Hibbert
30 NYK Marbury, Crawford, Gallinari, Curry


Statistical Rankings by Roster



1 PHO Nash, Amare, Shaq
2 DAL Dirk, Kidd, Josh, Terry
3 DEN AI, Melo, Camby, Nene, JR
4 MIA Wade, Beasley, Marion, Mario
5 LAC Brand, Maggette, Egordon
6 DET Billups, Rip, Prince, Sheed
7 MEM Conley, Gay, Mayo, Darco
8 BOS KG, Pierce, Allen, Rondo
9 NJN Carter, Yi, Lopez, Harris, Krstic
10 NO Paul, Peja, West, Peterson
11 UTA Boozer, Deron, AK47, Koufos
12 HOU T-Mac, Yao, Battier
13 TOR Bosh, O'Neal, Bargnani, Calderon
14 POR Oden, Roy, Bayless, Webster
15 ATL Johnson, Smith, Bibby, Horford
16 SAC Martin, Artest, Miller
17 CLE Lebron, Boobie, Z, Ben, West
18 LAL Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom
19 MIL Redd, Jefferson, Villanueva, Bogut
20 SA TD, Parker, Bowen, Manu
21 ORL Howard, Lewis, Nelson
22 WAS Arenas, Butler, Jamison
23 MIN Love, Jefferson, Brewer, Foye
24 IND Ford, Rush, Granger, Hibbert
25 CHI Rose, Hughes, Deng, Gooden
26 PHI Iguodala, Miller, Carney, Speights
27 SEA Durant, Green, Westbrook
28 GS Davis, Ellis, Jackson, Harrington
29 CHA Felton, Richardson, Wallace
30 NYK Marbury, Crawford, Gallinari, Curry


2007-08 Final Team Rankings



1 BOS KG, Pierce, Allen, Rondo
2 LAL Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom
3 DET Billups, Rip, Prince, Sheed
4 NO Paul, Peja, West, Peterson
5 SA TD, Parker, Bowen, Manu
6 ORL Howard, Lewis, Nelson
7 UTA Boozer, Deron, AK47, Koufos
8 CLE Lebron, Boobie, Z, Ben, West
9 HOU T-Mac, Yao, Battier
10 WAS Arenas, Butler, Jamison
11 PHO Nash, Amare, Shaq
12 TOR Bosh, O'Neal, Bargnani, Calderon
13 DAL Dirk, Kidd, Josh, Terry
14 PHI Iguodala, Miller, Carney, Speights
15 DEN AI, Melo, Camby, Nene, JR
16 ATL Johnson, Smith, Bibby, Horford
17 GS Davis, Ellis, Jackson, Harrington
18 IND Ford, Rush, Granger, Hibbert
19 POR Oden, Roy, Bayless, Webster
20 NJN Carter, Yi, Lopez, Harris, Krstic
21 SAC Martin, Artest, Miller
22 CHI Rose, Hughes, Deng, Gooden
23 CHA Felton, Richardson, Wallace
24 LAC Brand, Maggette, Egordon
25 MIL Redd, Jefferson, Villanueva, Bogut
26 MIN Love, Jefferson, Brewer, Foye
27 NYK Marbury, Crawford, Gallinari, Curry
28 MEM Conley, Gay, Mayo, Darco
29 SEA Durant, Green, Westbrook
30 MIA Wade, Beasley, Marion, Mario


Assumed Team Movement



1 ATL None
2 BOS None
3 CHA ? About S. May and R. Felton
4 CHI Hinrich and Thabo may be available
5 CLE Exp Contracts, look for a big trade
6 DAL Desperately need a real Big Man
7 DEN Need Defense BADLY
8 DET Could move any of the big 4
9 GS Still need a real Center
10 HOU Must stay healthy…that’s it
11 IND Rebuilding might not be done
12 LAC Health is an issue, otherwise nice
13 LAL Need Andrew Bynum for a real shot
14 MEM Building for the future, nicely
15 MIA Need a big, but sexy 1-4
16 MIL Rebuilding, Redd could be out (cle)
17 MIN Nice little team, but far away
18 NJN Deepest team, go 11 deep
19 NO Much better than on paper
20 NYK TRADE SOME PG's!!!!!!
21 ORL Need one more significant player
22 PHI Growing slowly, could surprise in 08
23 PHO Dead after the starting 5+Barbosa
24 POR If in the east, a sure playoff team
25 SA May need to rebuild by 2010
26 SAC Artest is gone, need 3 more players
27 SEA A real big away from being serious
28 TOR Very young, could be a sleeper
29 UTA Very nice s5, just wait for Koufos
30 WAS Arenas is gone, so are the Wiz



2008-09 Tier Groupings




tier one Elite, for now



1 BOS
2 PHO
3 SA
4 DET
5 DAL




tier two The Next Elite Group



6 LAL
7 NO
8 CLE
9 HOU




tier three Look Out, 'Cause They're Coming



10 POR
11 NJN
12 MIA
13 UTA
14 LAC
15 MEM
16 SEA
17 MIN




tier four Overrated



18 DEN
19 WAS
20 ORL
21 ATL
22 GS




tier five Still a Little Ways Away



23 PHI
24 CHI
25 TOR
26 IND
27 CHA




tier six Dude, It's Time to Start Over



28 NYK
29 MIL
30 SAC


2008-09 Preliminary League Projections



1 LAL Bynum will be the difference
2 BOS Still very very good
3 PHO They will find a way to be relevent
4 NO Chris Paul carries the team again
5 NJN Depth pays off
6 CLE Lebron, Lebron, Lebron
7 DAL Still decent but not great
8 HOU If healthy, they'll be in it
9 MIA Huge turn around in the East
10 SA Falling with each passing minute
11 UTA Very solid nucleus
12 DET With players moved, they will fall
13 POR Growing into a West Conf playoff team
14 PHI Exciting but not there yet
15 MEM Growing into a West Conf playoff team
16 CHI Growing pains, but still fun to watch
17 LAC If healthy, they'll be in it
18 ATL Team needs to gel with consistancy
19 ORL Still a prime time player away
20 TOR Getting better, but still very young
21 DEN Melo+AI=No Defense
22 GS Fast and fun, but not good enough
23 MIN Growing nicely, but need time
24 SEA Nice pieces but still not there yet
25 WAS No Arenas, just decent
26 IND Rebuilding, don't expect much
27 CHA Jordan and Brown will need time
28 SAC No Artest, no chance still need players
29 MIL Rebuilding, don't expect much
30 NYK A team of PG's can't win games


2008-09 Very Preliminary Playoff Rankings




Eastern Conference



1 BOS Still Very Very Good
2 NJN Like BOS, will win…often
3 CLE Top 4 team, without Redd
4 MIA Huge improvement in a lesser Conf
5 DET With changes, they will be just OK
6 PHI Strong team tough to defend
7 CHI Growing but still a second tier team
8 ATL Will win games, but not a contender




Western Conference



1 LAL Bynum is the difference…period
2 PHO Will find a way to win games
3 NO How does Chris Paul do it?
4 DAL Dirk and Kidd are good enough for 4
5 HOU T-Mac/Yao healthy, they're in
6 SA Getting older will hurt their chances
7 UTA Coming into their own for the playoffs
8 POR Will be a juggernaut in time




Eastern Conference Finals





BOS vs. CLE




Western Conference Finals





LAL vs. NO




NBA Finals





LAL vs. BOS




NBA Champions





Los Angeles Lakers

4 comments:

Jacob Rosen said...

New Jersey??? Devin Harris, Vince Carter, Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian does not look like an combination worthy of putting a team over the hump and even into the playoffs in the first place. Certainly getting rid of Richard Jefferson was a need for the team in the long-term, but I do not see them radically improving this coming season. I find that Atlanta, Chicago and Indiana have made many more strides in this offseason.

An Atlanta core of Bibby, Johnson, Smith, and Horford, and an Indiana core of Ford, Dunleavy, Murphy and Granger are much better than the players in New Jersey. I would be surprised if the Nets even find their way into the playoffs next year.

Rick Morris said...

Jacob:

Although I really respect Jason's opinions and would be the first to say that he is our lead hoops expert, I'm much closer to your opinion on New Jersey. He told me of his opinion on them on the phone yesterday and I told him I was shocked, citing the commonly-held belief that the Jefferson deal was a salary dump that may have done certain things, but did not make them better in the short term. All I can say is that he sees something you, I and the rest of the world do not. If he's right, he is entitled to the the mother of all "I Told You So's," because I think he's on an island on this one.

--Rick

Jacob Rosen said...

Absolutely, but I'll let that happen a year from now. Check out The Wages of Wins Journal at www.dberri.wordpress.com to see another statistical blog that shows how Indiana got better with the Toronto trade.

I will have an e-mail coming out soon with the beginning of my NBA predictions for the upcoming season. Although it is only June, it should be interesting to see where I will have teams now in comparison to where I will have them three months from now.

That Guy said...

I firmly understand that most people will not feel the way I do about the Nets, especially not this early. However, how did the Pistons (billups, prince, rip, sheed, wallace) beat the Lakers (kobe, shaq and a bunch of role players)? The answer is similar to that of the Nets. A balanced sound defensive team should have a shot to beat a team of a couple of stars and role players. Atlanta is a collection of talent that has yet to show they fit together. You can believe in Indiana if you want to, but I see them as a team wanting but not producing. Ford, Dunleavy, Murphy, and Granger would not even start for NJ. I always appreciate people thinking for themselves and not taking conventional wisdom as divine mandate, even if I do not agree.