By Rick Morris
Here's more great analysis from our Senior Editor Jason Jones as he dissects all 30 NBA rosters in the aftermath of this past week's draft. Note that with his roster rankings, he lists a few of the key players on each team. Bear in mind also that the statistical rankings relate to Part I of his post-draft analysis in the column posted just below this one.
| Gut Check Roster Rankings |
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| 1 | BOS | KG, Pierce, Allen, Rondo |
| 2 | PHO | Nash, Amare, Shaq |
| 3 | DET | Billups, Rip, Prince, Sheed |
| 4 | DAL | Dirk, Kidd, Josh, Terry |
| 5 | POR | Oden, Roy, Bayless, Webster |
| 6 | LAL | Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom |
| 7 | NJN | Carter, Yi, Lopez, Harris, Krstic |
| 8 | SA | TD, Parker, Bowen, Manu |
| 9 | LAC | Brand, Maggette, Egordon |
| 10 | ATL | Johnson, Smith, Bibby, Horford |
| 11 | DEN | AI, Melo, Camby, Nene, JR |
| 12 | UTA | Boozer, Deron, AK47, Koufos |
| 13 | MIA | Wade, Beasley, Marion, Mario |
| 14 | PHI | Iguodala, Miller, Carney, Speights |
| 15 | TOR | Bosh, O'Neal, Bargnani, Calderon |
| 16 | MEM | Conley, Gay, Mayo, Darco |
| 17 | CLE | Lebron, Boobie, Z, Ben, West |
| 18 | CHI | Rose, Hughes, Deng, Gooden |
| 19 | HOU | T-Mac, Yao, Battier |
| 20 | NO | Paul, Peja, West, Peterson |
| 21 | MIN | Love, Jefferson, Brewer, Foye |
| 22 | CHA | Felton, Richardson, Wallace |
| 23 | SEA | Durant, Green, Westbrook |
| 24 | MIL | Redd, Jefferson, Villanueva, Bogut |
| 25 | GS | Davis, Ellis, Jackson, Harrington |
| 26 | ORL | Howard, Lewis, Nelson |
| 27 | WAS | Arenas, Butler, Jamison |
| 28 | SAC | Martin, Artest, Miller |
| 29 | IND | Ford, Rush, Granger, Hibbert |
| 30 | NYK | Marbury, Crawford, Gallinari, Curry |
| Statistical Rankings by Roster |
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| 1 | PHO | Nash, Amare, Shaq |
| 2 | DAL | Dirk, Kidd, Josh, Terry |
| 3 | DEN | AI, Melo, Camby, Nene, JR |
| 4 | MIA | Wade, Beasley, Marion, Mario |
| 5 | LAC | Brand, Maggette, Egordon |
| 6 | DET | Billups, Rip, Prince, Sheed |
| 7 | MEM | Conley, Gay, Mayo, Darco |
| 8 | BOS | KG, Pierce, Allen, Rondo |
| 9 | NJN | Carter, Yi, Lopez, Harris, Krstic |
| 10 | NO | Paul, Peja, West, Peterson |
| 11 | UTA | Boozer, Deron, AK47, Koufos |
| 12 | HOU | T-Mac, Yao, Battier |
| 13 | TOR | Bosh, O'Neal, Bargnani, Calderon |
| 14 | POR | Oden, Roy, Bayless, Webster |
| 15 | ATL | Johnson, Smith, Bibby, Horford |
| 16 | SAC | Martin, Artest, Miller |
| 17 | CLE | Lebron, Boobie, Z, Ben, West |
| 18 | LAL | Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom |
| 19 | MIL | Redd, Jefferson, Villanueva, Bogut |
| 20 | SA | TD, Parker, Bowen, Manu |
| 21 | ORL | Howard, Lewis, Nelson |
| 22 | WAS | Arenas, Butler, Jamison |
| 23 | MIN | Love, Jefferson, Brewer, Foye |
| 24 | IND | Ford, Rush, Granger, Hibbert |
| 25 | CHI | Rose, Hughes, Deng, Gooden |
| 26 | PHI | Iguodala, Miller, Carney, Speights |
| 27 | SEA | Durant, Green, Westbrook |
| 28 | GS | Davis, Ellis, Jackson, Harrington |
| 29 | CHA | Felton, Richardson, Wallace |
| 30 | NYK | Marbury, Crawford, Gallinari, Curry |
| 2007-08 Final Team Rankings |
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| 1 | BOS | KG, Pierce, Allen, Rondo |
| 2 | LAL | Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom |
| 3 | DET | Billups, Rip, Prince, Sheed |
| 4 | NO | Paul, Peja, West, Peterson |
| 5 | SA | TD, Parker, Bowen, Manu |
| 6 | ORL | Howard, Lewis, Nelson |
| 7 | UTA | Boozer, Deron, AK47, Koufos |
| 8 | CLE | Lebron, Boobie, Z, Ben, West |
| 9 | HOU | T-Mac, Yao, Battier |
| 10 | WAS | Arenas, Butler, Jamison |
| 11 | PHO | Nash, Amare, Shaq |
| 12 | TOR | Bosh, O'Neal, Bargnani, Calderon |
| 13 | DAL | Dirk, Kidd, Josh, Terry |
| 14 | PHI | Iguodala, Miller, Carney, Speights |
| 15 | DEN | AI, Melo, Camby, Nene, JR |
| 16 | ATL | Johnson, Smith, Bibby, Horford |
| 17 | GS | Davis, Ellis, Jackson, Harrington |
| 18 | IND | Ford, Rush, Granger, Hibbert |
| 19 | POR | Oden, Roy, Bayless, Webster |
| 20 | NJN | Carter, Yi, Lopez, Harris, Krstic |
| 21 | SAC | Martin, Artest, Miller |
| 22 | CHI | Rose, Hughes, Deng, Gooden |
| 23 | CHA | Felton, Richardson, Wallace |
| 24 | LAC | Brand, Maggette, Egordon |
| 25 | MIL | Redd, Jefferson, Villanueva, Bogut |
| 26 | MIN | Love, Jefferson, Brewer, Foye |
| 27 | NYK | Marbury, Crawford, Gallinari, Curry |
| 28 | MEM | Conley, Gay, Mayo, Darco |
| 29 | SEA | Durant, Green, Westbrook |
| 30 | MIA | Wade, Beasley, Marion, Mario |
| Assumed Team Movement |
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| 1 | ATL | None |
| 2 | BOS | None |
| 3 | CHA | ? About S. May and R. Felton |
| 4 | CHI | Hinrich and Thabo may be available |
| 5 | CLE | Exp Contracts, look for a big trade |
| 6 | DAL | Desperately need a real Big Man |
| 7 | DEN | Need Defense BADLY |
| 8 | DET | Could move any of the big 4 |
| 9 | GS | Still need a real Center |
| 10 | HOU | Must stay healthy…that’s it |
| 11 | IND | Rebuilding might not be done |
| 12 | LAC | Health is an issue, otherwise nice |
| 13 | LAL | Need Andrew Bynum for a real shot |
| 14 | MEM | Building for the future, nicely |
| 15 | MIA | Need a big, but sexy 1-4 |
| 16 | MIL | Rebuilding, Redd could be out (cle) |
| 17 | MIN | Nice little team, but far away |
| 18 | NJN | Deepest team, go 11 deep |
| 19 | NO | Much better than on paper |
| 20 | NYK | TRADE SOME PG's!!!!!! |
| 21 | ORL | Need one more significant player |
| 22 | PHI | Growing slowly, could surprise in 08 |
| 23 | PHO | Dead after the starting 5+Barbosa |
| 24 | POR | If in the east, a sure playoff team |
| 25 | SA | May need to rebuild by 2010 |
| 26 | SAC | Artest is gone, need 3 more players |
| 27 | SEA | A real big away from being serious |
| 28 | TOR | Very young, could be a sleeper |
| 29 | UTA | Very nice s5, just wait for Koufos |
| 30 | WAS | Arenas is gone, so are the Wiz |
| 2008-09 Tier Groupings |
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| tier one | Elite, for now |
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| 1 | BOS |
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| 2 | PHO |
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| 3 | SA |
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| 4 | DET |
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| 5 | DAL |
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| tier two | The Next Elite Group |
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| 6 | LAL |
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| 7 | NO |
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| 8 | CLE |
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| 9 | HOU |
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| tier three | Look Out, 'Cause They're Coming |
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| 10 | POR |
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| 11 | NJN |
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| 12 | MIA |
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| 13 | UTA |
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| 14 | LAC |
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| 15 | MEM |
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| 16 | SEA |
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| 17 | MIN |
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| tier four | Overrated |
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| 18 | DEN |
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| 19 | WAS |
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| 20 | ORL |
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| 21 | ATL |
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| 22 | GS |
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| tier five | Still a Little Ways Away |
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| 23 | PHI |
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| 24 | CHI |
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| 25 | TOR |
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| 26 | IND |
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| 27 | CHA |
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| tier six | Dude, It's Time to Start Over |
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| 28 | NYK |
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| 29 | MIL |
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| 30 | SAC |
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| 2008-09 Preliminary League Projections |
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| 1 | LAL | Bynum will be the difference |
| 2 | BOS | Still very very good |
| 3 | PHO | They will find a way to be relevent |
| 4 | NO | Chris Paul carries the team again |
| 5 | NJN | Depth pays off |
| 6 | CLE | Lebron, Lebron, Lebron |
| 7 | DAL | Still decent but not great |
| 8 | HOU | If healthy, they'll be in it |
| 9 | MIA | Huge turn around in the East |
| 10 | SA | Falling with each passing minute |
| 11 | UTA | Very solid nucleus |
| 12 | DET | With players moved, they will fall |
| 13 | POR | Growing into a West Conf playoff team |
| 14 | PHI | Exciting but not there yet |
| 15 | MEM | Growing into a West Conf playoff team |
| 16 | CHI | Growing pains, but still fun to watch |
| 17 | LAC | If healthy, they'll be in it |
| 18 | ATL | Team needs to gel with consistancy |
| 19 | ORL | Still a prime time player away |
| 20 | TOR | Getting better, but still very young |
| 21 | DEN | Melo+AI=No Defense |
| 22 | GS | Fast and fun, but not good enough |
| 23 | MIN | Growing nicely, but need time |
| 24 | SEA | Nice pieces but still not there yet |
| 25 | WAS | No Arenas, just decent |
| 26 | IND | Rebuilding, don't expect much |
| 27 | CHA | Jordan and Brown will need time |
| 28 | SAC | No Artest, no chance still need players |
| 29 | MIL | Rebuilding, don't expect much |
| 30 | NYK | A team of PG's can't win games |
| 2008-09 Very Preliminary Playoff Rankings |
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| Eastern Conference |
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| 1 | BOS | Still Very Very Good |
| 2 | NJN | Like BOS, will win…often |
| 3 | CLE | Top 4 team, without Redd |
| 4 | MIA | Huge improvement in a lesser Conf |
| 5 | DET | With changes, they will be just OK |
| 6 | PHI | Strong team tough to defend |
| 7 | CHI | Growing but still a second tier team |
| 8 | ATL | Will win games, but not a contender |
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| Western Conference |
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| 1 | LAL | Bynum is the difference…period |
| 2 | PHO | Will find a way to win games |
| 3 | NO | How does Chris Paul do it? |
| 4 | DAL | Dirk and Kidd are good enough for 4 |
| 5 | HOU | T-Mac/Yao healthy, they're in |
| 6 | SA | Getting older will hurt their chances |
| 7 | UTA | Coming into their own for the playoffs |
| 8 | POR | Will be a juggernaut in time |
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| Eastern Conference Finals |
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| BOS vs. CLE |
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| Western Conference Finals |
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| LAL vs. NO |
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| NBA Finals |
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| LAL vs. BOS |
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| NBA Champions |
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| Los Angeles Lakers |
4 comments:
New Jersey??? Devin Harris, Vince Carter, Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian does not look like an combination worthy of putting a team over the hump and even into the playoffs in the first place. Certainly getting rid of Richard Jefferson was a need for the team in the long-term, but I do not see them radically improving this coming season. I find that Atlanta, Chicago and Indiana have made many more strides in this offseason.
An Atlanta core of Bibby, Johnson, Smith, and Horford, and an Indiana core of Ford, Dunleavy, Murphy and Granger are much better than the players in New Jersey. I would be surprised if the Nets even find their way into the playoffs next year.
Jacob:
Although I really respect Jason's opinions and would be the first to say that he is our lead hoops expert, I'm much closer to your opinion on New Jersey. He told me of his opinion on them on the phone yesterday and I told him I was shocked, citing the commonly-held belief that the Jefferson deal was a salary dump that may have done certain things, but did not make them better in the short term. All I can say is that he sees something you, I and the rest of the world do not. If he's right, he is entitled to the the mother of all "I Told You So's," because I think he's on an island on this one.
--Rick
Absolutely, but I'll let that happen a year from now. Check out The Wages of Wins Journal at www.dberri.wordpress.com to see another statistical blog that shows how Indiana got better with the Toronto trade.
I will have an e-mail coming out soon with the beginning of my NBA predictions for the upcoming season. Although it is only June, it should be interesting to see where I will have teams now in comparison to where I will have them three months from now.
I firmly understand that most people will not feel the way I do about the Nets, especially not this early. However, how did the Pistons (billups, prince, rip, sheed, wallace) beat the Lakers (kobe, shaq and a bunch of role players)? The answer is similar to that of the Nets. A balanced sound defensive team should have a shot to beat a team of a couple of stars and role players. Atlanta is a collection of talent that has yet to show they fit together. You can believe in Indiana if you want to, but I see them as a team wanting but not producing. Ford, Dunleavy, Murphy, and Granger would not even start for NJ. I always appreciate people thinking for themselves and not taking conventional wisdom as divine mandate, even if I do not agree.
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