Monday, March 3, 2008

Jean Schmidt Poll and Prediction (Brinkman by 9 points)

By Nate Noy

Jean Schmidt is in serious trouble Tuesday; one telltale sign of this is the fact that her campaign has not even bothered to release any bogus polls lately. We’ll get to the polls and my prediction for this race in a moment, but first I wanted to recap the coverage we have given this race in the past month with links to my previous posts:

Jean Schmidt beware character matters to OH-2 voters
Jean Schmidt endorsed by 2,144,597th most popular site on the Internet
Jean Schmidt’s Liberal Base
Jean Schmidt’s shill Nathan Bailey
Jean Schmidt 409th most powerful member of Congress
My favorite Jean Schmidt lie
Jean Schmidt’s $1.3 million IRS problem
The Truth about Jean Schmidt
Jean Schmidt’s position on Cuba “bought and paid for” by lobbyists
Tom Brinkman NOT corrupt enough for Congress
Republicans in Ohio-2 beware: Jean Schmidt has NO CHANCE in the general election

The above material has been thoroughly researched and I personally attest to its truthfulness and accuracy. Hopefully my work has helped share the truth about Jean Schmidt and dissuaded any would be “sucker” that may have voted for her before reviewing the above.

Now on to my discussion about polls:

Some of you may remember this one from mid-April 2006:

Schmidt 56%
McEwen 33%
Other/ undecided 11%

Of course the actual results of the election were:

Schmidt 47.67%
McEwen 42.56%
Other 9.78%

So Jean’s poll had her up 23 points and she won by a little more than five and received less than 50% of the vote; clearly the validity of any Schmidt poll should be questioned after a result like this.

Subsequently a poll before the general election showed the following:

Schmidt 48%
Wulsin 40%
Other / Undecided 12%

The final results of this one were:
Schmidt 50.45%
Wulsin 49.39%
Write-in 0.16%

In this match-up Schmidt won by a whopping 1.06%, not quite the 8% her earlier poll showed.

Schmidt released another poll on January 17, 2008 showing her with 52% of would be voters, the same poll (taken before Phil Heimlich dropped out of the race) showed Tom Brinkman with only 9%.

Since this mid-January poll was released Schmidt has not come public with another poll. We all know she is taking them and it is safe to assume she is behind, or she would be releasing the results.


Schmidt’s polls tend to be about 7-15 points off, and I predict she will end up with 44% of the vote. I will project Nathan Bailey at 3% and Tom Brinkman at 53%. Yes, you heard it here first, I predict Tom to win by 9 points on Tuesday. Enough people FINALLY know the truth about Schmidt and the time has finally come to throw her out of office.

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