Monday, November 3, 2008

David Krikorian v. Jean Schmidt v. Vic Wulsin Ohio 2nd Congressional Predictions

By Nate Noy

The game-changer in this race happened over the weekend. This flier (link) was distributed on a large scale throughout the 2nd District from Saturday until tonight. Today, the Right to Life movement was abuzz as the flier was emailed and circulated to a majority of members in Ohio 2. Jean Schmidt's refusal to acknowledge the Armenian Genocide and the fact that she has taken blood money from Muslim Turks to hide the truth regarding the slaughter of Christian Armenians has cost Jean Schmidt a significant portion of her base, and in my opinion will be the proverbial “straw that broke the camel's back” (pun intended). Jean Schmidt will NOT win without this part of the base and David Krikorian will win Ohio 2 tomorrow.

My prediction is this:

David Krikorian 38%
Jean Schmidt 35%
Victoria Wulsin 27%

I predict that David will win Adams, Brown, Clermont, and Hamilton counties. He will finish 2nd in Warren and 3rd in Pike and Scioto.

Jean Schmidt will carry Warren County, and finish 2nd in the other six counties.

Victoria Wulsin will win both Pike and Scioto and finish last in the other five counties.

David will poll close to 60% in Brown and in the 40s in both Clermont and Adams. Hamilton will be in the high 30s and Warren in the low 30s. Pike and Scioto are likely to be in the mid-20s but will be offset by a strong victory in Brown.

Jean Schmidt will only approach 40 in Warren and that will be her high-water mark for the night. Expect to see her close to 20% in Brown, the mid-20s in Scioto and the mid 30s in the other four counties.

The Republican inner circle was also abuzz today with poll results showing this to be a two-horse race between David and Jean. What I heard was that Vic is actually in the low-20s or even the high teens, but I think the DCCC spent enough money to keep her north of 25%, but she will still be below 28%.

This thing will be close, but Krikorian built a strong base against the worst elected official in the history of Southern Ohio. I may miss having Jean to kick around after tomorrow, but as I have stated before, it is checkmate for her, and David Krikorian was the grandmaster.

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