Friday, January 25, 2008

...On the Matthew Berry Front...

by Jason Jones

We have been hammering home this idea that the #1 perceived sports network's (ESPN) lead fantasy sports expert is a sham or a mockery, in Matthew Berry's case; a SHAMOCKERY. I have no doubt that anyone who is serious about fantasy sports could easily do as well if not better than Berry without trying very hard. When the guy is not giving safe advice (LaDainian Tomlinson is worth a top 5 pick), he is giving bad advice (bench Adrian Peterson against San Diego, which by the way was the game he broke the single-game rushing record). The guy has a list of players to never draft under any circumstances. Anyone who knows fantasy sports knows, the beauty of the game is how each circumstance is different and each fantasy owner must adjust accordingly. Before the '07 season, he said never draft Terrell Owens. Maybe if you believe T.O. is not worth taking in the first or second round, that's fine. What if everyone in your league is thinking the same thing, you mean to tell me that you wouldn't take T.O. in the 4th or 5th when the value dictates that you HAVE TO take him. The guy lead all receivers in TDs in '06. The guy is an idiot. As if I am the only one who feels this way, here are some points made on a non-FDH affiliated message board.

-He is that dude that came on ESPN last night and said people are drafting Ryan Howard too early. He is the same guy that had his own fantasy football show on ESPN this year, and b/c of him, I drafted Chris Chambers real early, and he sucked this year. He is a smug, cocky, idiot, and I am 100% positive all of us here could run circles around him at his job. Ya feel me!!!

-Agreed...him being on TV really has annoyed me. I used to read his website, but since he aired on ESPN I have realized his information is useless. I think I saw some website who compared and analyzed his rankings (for basketball) against other sites and his picks were by far the worst overall.

-He is definitely too cocky for me, too bad ESPN partnered with him.he keeps saying Igawa will have DiceK like numbers. i dunno about that.

Now clearly, this was in response to comments made pre-baseball season. The Kei Igawa thing is almost unforgivable in hindsight. That's convenient to say now, I know. If you really look and/or listen to Matthew Berry, those comments come up more often than not. The guy really doesn't know what he's talking about. Fantasy sports can not be relegated to crunching stats and matchups as the only literal approach to the analysis. As we at FDH say often, its all situational and value is the most important factor. Here's a fun tidbit of analysis.

The following is a fantasy team of mine that I did just for fun, winning a title.

QB-Tom Brady
RB-Jamal Lewis
RB-Adrian Peterson
WR-Randy Moss
WR-Chad Johnson
WR-Calvin Johnson
TE-Kellen Winslow
K-Jason Hanson


According to Berry,

^ Tom Brady is in the top 4-6 QB fantasy wise (League MVP, and finished 4800 yds/50tds)

^ Jamal Lewis is over the hill and done (1300 yds/11 combined tds)

^ Adrian Peterson, never draft rookies (1341 yds/13 combined tds-oh, and rushing champ)

^ Randy Moss, he will never be the Moss of old, (1493 yds/23 F#$@ing tds!)

^ Chad Johnson, he's good but not worth taking too high (1440 yds/8tds in a very down year)

^ Calvin Johnson, he's a rookie so don't bother (756 yds/5 tds-not great but a decent 3rd WR)

^ Kellen Winslow, hasn't proven himself enough to worry about (1106 yds/5tds-4th best fantasy TE)

^ Jason Hanson, who cares about kickers anyway? (139 fantasy points-5th best K points wise)

^ Jacksonville, don't worry about defenses, i.e. Punt the position (14th best and taken late)

Here's the point. It's all about value. In hindsight it would make sense if the draft went-Brady (1st), A. Peterson (2nd), and Moss (3rd). That is clearly not how it went down. The following is the order in which players were selected. Again remember value is everything. If I listened to Berry there is no way I could have drafted this team.

1st round (pick 8) Chad Johnson
2nd round (pick 13) Randy Moss
3rd round (pick 28) Tom Brady
4th round (pick 33) Calvin Johnson
5th round (pick 48) Jamal Lewis
6th round (pick 53) Cadillac Williams
7th round (pick 68) Matt Hasselbeck
8th round (pick 73) Adrian Peterson
9th round (pick 88) Kellen Winslow
10th round (pick 93) Jay Cutler
11th round (pick 108) Joe Horn
12th round (pick 113) Devin Hester
13th round (pick 128) Greg Olsen
14th round (pick 133) Jacksonville
15th round (pick 148) Jason Hanson

Note: 6th round pick C.Williams never played. If you draft correctly a third of your picks will never play outside of bye weeks (Hasselbeck, Cutler, Horn, Hester, Olsen).

The value displayed here is unreal. As impossible as it may seem, this is the kind of analysis and success you can come to expect from, not Matthew Berry.

I would put up my best team from '07 (I love to draft so I have upwards of 14 teams) against any of Berry's and would smoke him by Week 8.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

I tried to google "Matthew Berry douchebag" thinking for sure someone else would have used that word to describe him. I came up with nothing; is that possible?!! All the sites had Matthew Berry (ellipses) so-and-so is a douchebag. I don't know what's worse: his fantasy advice, the fact that his job is to be a fantasy guru, or his columns about his relationship with women. I understand he needs to prove that he has been laid, because many of us would assume otherwise, but come on. But yeah, for future googlers, "Matthew Berry, douchebag."

Now, I feel bad, I'm sure you're a nice guy, Matthew Berry. I hope you don't ever see this. But good lord.